By Great Imo Jonathan
As we enter the 2027 election season, Nigerians must judge government by evidence, not slogans. The Tinubu administration has circulated a list of “15 Reasons Why I Will Be Voting For President Tinubu.” But a review of official data from NBS, CBN, DMO, NELFUND, MAN, and other credible sources shows that many of these claims are either lies, exaggerated, misleading, or not a result of government action.
So as the 2027 presidential election campaigns begins, there is need to pay attention to what the candidates are saying, their pedigrees and their history.
Especially, there is need to scrutinise the current administration of President Tinubu, because his first term has brought hell upon millions of Nigerians.
Going into the 2027 election campaign, the assignment before every Nigerian is simple: to judge Tinubu by his performance, his previous promises, his performance, Nigerians lived realities and not his rhetoric.
Unfortunately President Tinubu and his boys opened his 2027 campaign with a series of what they claimed were the reasons he should be voted for the second term. But a simple fact check of what President Tinubu’s team presented has exposed his 2027 campaign as built on lies and outright propaganda. His so called achievements are at variance with people’s lived experiences. And this is what I am here to interrogate.
Now lets look at President Tinubu’s claims and juxtapose them with facts.
1 Claim: “27 states could not pay salaries on May 29, 2023. Today all states are paying salaries”
Fact: Salary payment was never at 27 states in arrears in May 2023. According to NLC and BudgIT 2023 reports, about 8 to10 states had backlog issues, mostly due to legacy debts. Today 2025/2026: Several states are still struggling. FAAC allocations have tripled due to fuel subsidy removal and FX devaluation, so gross revenue to states went from average of ₦3.7T in 2022 to ₦15.3T in 2024.
That made payment easier, but real purchasing power of salaries has collapsed. Minimum wage of ₦70,000 signed in 2024 is still below 2023 inflation.
So states are “paying” salaries but not “paying a living wage.” Civil servants in Nigeria are poorer today under President Tinubu than they were before him, due to the destruction of the purchasing power of Naira. Is that progress? Absolutely no.
2 Claim: “From biggest importer to biggest exporter of refined products in West Africa”
Fact: Nigeria started exporting PMS, Jet A1, and diesel after Dangote Refinery came onboard.
But the fact remains that Dangote Refinery is a private initiative started in 2013. It remains a private business with limited government investment made long before Tinubu.
President Tinubu did not have any input in setting it up. Previous governments before President Tinubu gave Dangote the support it needed. Especially President Buhari under Emefele as Central Bank Governor. Tinubu is trying to steal other administrations glory and that does not make sense.
But Nigeria is still a net importer of PMS for domestic consumption as of Q2 2025. NNPC and MOMAN data show we still import 30 to 40% of daily 50m liters PMS needs.
We export to West Africa because Dangote sells regionally, but domestic pump price went from ₦185 in May 2023 to ₦900 to ₦1300 in 2025. So we “export” while Nigerians pay more.
Yet President Tinubu’s government is hiding the fact that his administration spent over ₦11Trillion on what we now know as energy security despite subsidy removal. Meanwhile the subsidy that was helping the entire population despite corruption was just ₦4Trillion. How come the with the removal of subsidy that benefited all Nigerians with corruption President Tinubu spent a hiden
₦11Trillion that Nigerians did not benefit from? That is Tinubu Government magic.
3 Claim: “Overtaken South Africa to become #2 manufacturing base.
Fact: NBS and UNIDO 2025 data still ranks SA #1 and Egypt #2 in manufacturing value add. Nigeria is still #3.
In fact under President Tinubu manufacturing capacity utilization of Nigeria dropped from 57.1% in Q1 2023 to 54.8% in Q4 2024 per MAN report, due to FX, power, and cost of inputs. Over 800 companies shut down or relocated 2023 to 2024 citing FX and power.
4 Claim: “GDP ₦269.29T to ₦372.8T = +$67B in 2 years”.
Fact: That jump is from the 2025 GDP rebasing exercise, not real growth. NBS rebased GDP from 2010 base year to 2019 base year in July 2025. Rebasing adds previously uncounted sectors.
Here is real GDP growth: 2.98% in 2024, 4.01% in Q1 2025.
That is good, although it was largely driven by stock market growth and not real sector achievements.
But inflation averaged 27% in 2024 and 23% in 2025. In USD terms, GDP of Nigeria fell from $375B in 2022 to $250B in 2024 due to FX moving from ₦460/$ to ₦1500/$. So nominal naira GDP rose, dollar GDP fell.
Meaning that Nigeria as a nation on the overall became poorer based on global standard of measurements.
5 Claim: “From 1000 students to 1 million on NELFUND loan”
Fact: NELFUND portal launched May 2024. As of July 2025, NELFUND reports 501,602 students have successfully applied and 350,000 plus have received institutional fee payment. Not 1 million yet.
Loan only covers tuition, not feeding/accommodation. And repayment starts 2 years after NYSC. It’s a loan, not a grant.
But here is what should worry Nigerians about NELFUND, it is a debt trap for Nigerian youths by those who enjoyed Nigerian government free education. Before Tinubu came to power average university school fee was ₦23,000. But due to Tinubu government reckless policies school fees to over ₦200,000 on the average. Tinubu has trapped Nigerian students in future debts and still call it an achievement. What a contradiction.
6 Claim: “First administration with NEVER an ASUU strike”
Fact: True, no nationwide ASUU strike since May 2023.
But ASUU issued multiple ultimatums in 2024 and 2025 over unpaid earned academic allowances, withheld salaries, and renegotiation of 2009 agreement. The reason for no strike is partly because FG set up a committee and partly because of IPPIS removal plus partial payments. The underlying issues remain unresolved.
7 Claim: “₦520B weaponry plus $1B munitions and 80% pay rise for military”
Fact: 2024 budget had ₦3.25T for defense. Procurement did happen: 12 AH-1Z Vipers from US were approved in 2024, first deliveries expected 2025/2026.
Salary: FG approved 25 to 35% increase for military in Jan 2024, and another 20% in 2025. Not 80% in one go. Total increase 50 to 60% over 2 years.
Yet Nigerian solders are poorer in 2026 than they were in 2023 when President Tinubu took over. Because Naira lost its value by over 200%. A 60% pay rise does not correspond with 200% lost of value. Make it make sense to soldiers.
Insecurity: Despite spending, 2024 was one of the deadliest years. ACLED recorded 7,900 plus deaths from violence in 2024 versus 5,400 in 2022. Kidnapping for ransom hit record 4,777 victims in 2024 per SB Morgen. So insecurity is actually on the rise because Tinubu failed to overhaul the security architecture and invest where necessary.
8 Claim: “Tourists from 528,000 to 1.2 million for Detty December alone”
Fact: NIS and Ministry of Tourism 2023 figure was 1.89 million total arrivals. “528,000” is not in official data.
“Detty December” 2024 saw increased arrivals due to concerts and diaspora return. All these were not government driven effort and cannot be attributed to Tinubu government. Detty December actually started in Ghana and is acknowledged as private sector initiative. Tinubu should stop claiming what he did not build.
But NBS has not released an official 1.2m figure for Dec alone. The boom is real but driven by private sector and diaspora, not federal policy.
9 Claim: “Foreign Reserves $9B to $52B”
Fact: CBN reserves when Tinubu came to power were actually $33.5B on May 29, 2023. They fell to $30.3B in Jan 2024 under President Tinubu. Stop lying against dead Buhari even if he is not here to defend himself.
As of Aug 2025, gross reserves are $38.9B per CBN. $52B was a brief peak in mid-2024 after Eurobond and IMF SDR, but it included $10B plus in non-liquid swaps and forward contracts.
Net reserves are much lower. DMO external debt also rose from $42B in 2023 to $50B plus in 2025 but President Tinubu’s government don’t want to talk about it. That is government confusion.
10 and 11 Claim: “Lagos-Calabar in 6hrs, Sokoto-Lagos cut by 65%”
Fact: Both are flagship projects. Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway started April 2024. Only Phase 1: 47.3km in Lagos is under construction. Full 700km not funded. No completion date.
Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway was flagged off in 2024. It’s in design and ROW clearing stage. Travel time claims are projections, not reality yet. SO THESE ARE OUTRIGHT LIES BY PRESIDENT TINUBU’S GOVERNMENT.
12 Claim: “Two recessions before, now 14 quarters of growth plus trade surplus”
Fact: Nigeria had recessions in 2016 and 2020. True.
Since Q3 2023, we have had 8 consecutive quarters of growth. NBS reported trade surplus of ₦6.95T in 2024 *due to high oil exports* and reduced imports from FX.
But surplus came because Nigerians couldn’t afford imports, not because exports boomed outside oil. You get the point now? Due to lost of purchasing power of Naira.
13 Claim: “Economy growing faster than population: 4.01% versus 2.6% pop growth”
Fact: This is the first time since 2015. Good.
But per capita income in USD terms has fallen. World Bank: Nigeria per capita GDP was $2,085 in 2022, estimated $1,109 in 2024 due to devaluation.
So people are poorer in Nigeria today. Then what exactly is President Tinubu praising himself for?
14 Claim: “NGX from ₦27.9T to ₦166.3T. 68% return, most profitable on earth”
Fact: Market cap was ₦55.7T on May 29, 2023. As of Aug 2025 it’s ₦85Tnro ₦90T, not ₦166.3T. The ₦166T figure was a brief intraday in Jan 2025.
68% return in 2024 is correct – NGX was world’s best performing in USD terms per Bloomberg.
But that’s largely due to bank recapitalization, FX revaluation of stocks, and low base. Inflation was 33% in 2024, so real returns are lower.
15 Claim: “Passport from 98th to 89th on Henley Index”
Fact: Correct. Henley Passport Index 2025 Q3: Nigeria is 89th with visa-free access to 45 countries, up from 46 countries and 98th in 2023. Improvement is marginal and due to more bilateral agreements, not directly tied to one administration.
HERE IS THE BIGGER PICTURE
The 15 points mix real data, projections, rebasing effects, and private sector outcomes with government policy.
What changed drastically 2023 to 2025: Fuel subsidy removal plus FX float. That gave govt more naira revenue and reserves, but also caused: Inflation: 22.4% in May 2023 to 33.4% in Dec 2024 per NBS.
Food inflation: 24.8% to 39.8%. Poverty: In estimate over 70 million more Nigerians fell into poverty between 2023 and 2026.
Now you need to take note that President Tinubu is not even making any claims in the areas of health, transportation and housing. These three sectors are literally abandoned under his administration. Yet these are critical sectors, in addition to education, SMEs, poverty alleviation, cost of governance and security that any government must face with all its might. As it is today, Nigeria is in over 20 million housing deficit, since 2023 rents have gone up over 300%, Nigerians are paying through their noses to have a roof over their heads and many have lost hope of owning a house. Hospitals in Nigeria are now a death wish and there is no sense of urgency at all.
Nigeria is in a crisis like we have never seen before.
In the final analysis there are Tinubu reforms. But they are reforms that have deformed Nigerians with high cost of living, insecurity, and delivery gaps.
Meaning that his so called reforms did not benefit millions of Nigerians but rather made life hell for them while Tinubu, Wike, Gbaja and other Tinubu cronies are living lavishly and mocking majority of Nigerians.
You can’t lie to Nigerians about their lived experiences and you can’t seek to remain in power by all means through lies and propaganda. The security and welfare of citizens is the essence of government. A government that did not improve the welfare of citizens is a failed government.
Great Imo Jonathan
