By Khaleed Yazeed
For nearly three years, the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has presented itself as a government of painful but necessary reforms, a bitter pill prescribed to heal a hemorrhaging economy. The narrative, pushed through official channels and sympathetic media, is one of a decisive leader willing to sacrifice short-term popularity for long-term national salvation .
But beneath the technocratic jargon of fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability lies a more troubling reality. This is not merely a reformist government; it is a political machine in presidential clothing. From the corridors of the Central Bank to the barracks of the Inspector-General of Police, the Tinubu administration has systematically deployed state power to reward loyalists, punish perceived enemies, and consolidate a political dynasty, often at the direct expense of the Nigerian people he swore to serve.
The Architecture of Loyalty: Patronage as Policy
The most defining feature of the Tinubu presidency is not the removal of the fuel subsidy, but the replacement of professional civil service with partisan loyalists. The “Emilokan” philosophy, “It is my turn” has evolved from a campaign slogan into a governing doctrine where public office is treated as spoils for electoral victors rather than a trust held for citizens.
Consider the security apparatus. In a nation hemorrhaging from banditry and kidnapping, where the Global Terrorism Index now ranks Nigeria sixth in the world, the choice of Inspector-General of Police should be sacrosanct . Yet when the position became vacant, a pattern emerged that has become distressingly familiar. Senior police officer Frank Mba, widely regarded across the force as a consummate professional with an impeccable record, was bypassed. The nod went to Tunji Disu, an officer whose primary qualification appeared to be political proximity to the presidency.
This is not an isolated administrative oversight. It is structural corruption of institutional integrity. Across ministries, agencies, and parastatals, a silent purge has occurred. Key positions from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) to the Federal Inland Revenue Service are now occupied by a tight circle of Tinubu’s associates, many of whom served with him in Lagos decades ago . Technocrats have been sidelined. Merit has been sacrificed at the altar of loyalty.
The data on regional representation is stark. Critics point to a disproportionate concentration of appointments from the President’s Yoruba bloc, often at the direct expense of qualified individuals from the South-East and other regions. In a country as diverse as Nigeria, this is not merely unfair, it is a dangerous destabilizing force. When one section of the country feels permanently locked out of federal appointments, the social contract frays. The Nigerian state begins to look less like a commonwealth and more like a conquered territory.
The Economic Wreckage: Citizens as Collateral Damage
The Tinubu administration argues that the removal of the fuel subsidy and the unification of the naira were courageous acts necessary to save the economy from itself. Supporters point to rising foreign reserves, now reportedly at $43.4 billion and increased federation account revenues as evidence the strategy is working .
But statistics are cold comfort to a hungry population.
The reality on the ground is one of catastrophic suffering. When Tinubu announced “subsidy is gone” on his inauguration day in May 2023, inflation stood at 22.4 percent. By the end of 2024, it had exploded to nearly 35 percent, the highest rate in two decades. The floating of the naira caused the currency to lose more than half its value against the dollar virtually overnight. Transport costs tripled. Food prices became a weapon of mass destitution.
The World Bank now estimates that approximately 47 percent of Nigerians live below the international poverty line of $2.15 per day, roughly 104 million people. This did not happen by accident. It happened because the administration, in its haste to satisfy IMF-prescribed orthodoxy and impress foreign investors, implemented shock therapy without a safety net. There were no meaningful palliatives distributed before the pain began. There was no phased transition. There was only the brutal logic of a political class insulated from the consequences of its policies.
The proposed ₦70,000 minimum wage, secured only after nationwide protests and labor strikes, is already inadequate as inflation continues to erode purchasing power. Meanwhile, the government found billions to fund the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, a project mired in controversy over a lack of competitive bidding and opaque costing while releasing only 0.1 percent of the 2025 capital budget for the Federal Ministry of Health. A paltry N36 million out of N218 billion appropriated for healthcare infrastructure.
This is a government that has its priorities catastrophically wrong. It builds roads for the elite while allowing hospitals to crumble. It courts foreign investors while abandoning its own citizens to starvation.
The Machinery of Intimidation: Shrinking Democratic Space
Perhaps most alarming is the administration’s hostility to dissent. When Nigerians took to the streets in August 2024 to protest the escalating cost of living under the #EndBadGovernance movement, the government’s response was not dialogue or empathy. It was bullets and batons.
Amnesty International documented at least 24 protesters killed and over 1,200 arbitrarily detained during those demonstrations. The security forces, acting with what appeared to be state impunity, cracked down on peaceful assembly with a ferocity that recalled military era repression. This was not the action of a democratic government accountable to the people. It was the reflex of an administration that views citizens as obstacles to be managed rather than principals to be served.
The assault on press freedom has been equally aggressive. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) dropped Nigeria from 112th to 122nd in its World Press Freedom Index in 2025. Journalists covering the protests were tear-gassed, beaten, and arbitrarily detained. Investigative reporters exposing corruption have faced direct threats and arrests. The message from the Tinubu presidency is clear: loyalty will be rewarded, but scrutiny will be punished.
Even the National Assembly, already a weak institution, has been subordinated. The culture of mass defections where dozens of legislators have abandoned their parties to join the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) without resigning their seats has subverted the will of voters. Citizens cast ballots for opposition candidates only to see their representatives switch allegiance to the ruling party without consequence. This is not democracy. It is political brigandage.
Acknowledging the Good: Fiscal Autonomy and Infrastructure
To be balanced, it would be intellectually dishonest to ignore the administration’s achievements. The Tinubu government has genuinely increased Nigeria’s internally generated revenue capacity. The fiscal reforms pioneered in Lagos, which made that state the economic powerhouse it is today have been scaled nationally. Oil production has reportedly increased to 1.8 million barrels per day, up from anemic levels under the previous administration.
Infrastructure projects, particularly the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and various regional development commissions, have the potential to unlock economic growth if completed transparently. The administration has also shown strategic restraint in foreign policy, positioning Nigeria as a serious partner for trade rather than a beggar seeking aid. The recent state visit to the United Kingdom, the first Nigerian state visit in three decades signals a rehabilitation of the country’s international standing.
The establishment of five new regional development commissions to cover all six geopolitical zones is a commendable recognition of Nigeria’s federal diversity. And the appointment of figures from minority tribes to sensitive positions such as the Chief of Army Staff from a minority community in Kogi State represents a break from the dominance of majority ethnic groups in security architecture.
These are not trivial accomplishments. But they are insufficient, and they do not excuse the fundamental betrayal of the democratic contract.
The Lagos Blueprint: How Personal Ambition Became National Policy
To understand the Tinubu presidency, one must understand the political machine he built in Lagos between 1999 and 2007. That machine was a marvel of political engineering: a network of loyalists, technocrats, and financiers bound together by patronage and a shared understanding that loyalty would be rewarded. Fiscal reforms gave the state financial independence. Professional recruitment improved governance capacity. Strategic alliances extended Tinubu’s reach across the South-West and eventually into the North .
But the machine had a dark side that has now metastasized to the federal level. It was centralized, intolerant of dissent, and ultimately oriented toward the preservation of Tinubu’s personal dominance rather than the flourishing of democratic institutions. The “godfather” politics that Tinubu perfected in Lagos where political survival depends on fealty to the center rather than accountability to voters has now been imposed on the entire nation.
When Tinubu supported President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, it was a strategic calculation, not an ideological alignment. When he deferred his own presidential ambition multiple times, it was strategic restraint, not humility. Every political relationship in Tinubu’s career has been transactional, designed to accumulate IOU’s that could eventually be cashed in for the ultimate prize: the presidency.
Now that he has achieved that prize, the IOU’s are being called in. And the Nigerian people are paying the interest.
The Verdict: A Government for the Political Class, Not the Citizenry
Midway through his term, the evidence is overwhelming that the Tinubu administration operates primarily to serve the interests of the political class that installed it. Appointments reward loyalty over competence. Economic policies enrich connected insiders while immiserating the masses. Security institutions fail to protect citizens but prove ruthless in suppressing dissent.
The promise of “Renewed Hope” has curdled into recycled patronage. The “Emilokan” philosophy has become a justification for ethnic favoritism and institutional capture. Budgets are implemented abysmally, often running three fiscal cycles simultaneously in a dizzying display of financial mismanagement, while trillions are found for pet projects of the political elite.
Tinubu is not a stupid man. He is a brilliant political strategist who understands the levers of power better than almost any figure in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. But that brilliance has been deployed in service of personal and political domination, not national transformation.
The tragedy is that Nigeria desperately needs a reformer. The subsidy regime was unsustainable. The currency system was a racket. But reform without justice is merely rearranging the instruments of oppression. By prioritizing loyalty over competence, rewarding political allies over the public good, and meeting legitimate protest with lethal force, the Tinubu administration has demonstrated that its primary constituency is not the Nigerian people, but the political machine that brought it to power.
Citizens who expected a government of “renewed hope” have instead received a government of renewed impunity. And until that changes, until appointments are based on merit, budgets are implemented transparently, and dissent is met with dialogue rather than bullets, Nigeria will remain trapped in a cycle where leaders serve themselves, and the people simply survive.
-Khaleed yazeed
Founder wakilin yamma youth development network Katsina state, Nigeria.
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