By Bola BOLAWOLE
turnpot@gmail.com 0803 251 0193
Last Saturday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu flagged off his campaign towards the 2027 presidential election in Kaduna, the capital of Kaduna state and the political capital of the once monolithic and behemoth North, but which is now fast- and vastly-receding in influence and power. No empire lasts forever! They reach their apogee, wane, and then collapse, giving way for another to take its place.
Internal and external factors usually combine to cause the collapse of empires. The empire built in the North of Nigeria by the fore-fathers of the present generation of Fulanis will not be an exception. Despite the nostalgia, grandstanding and political chicanery of a monolithic North (which once decided the fate and fortunes of Nigeria), the truth of the matter is that things are no longer at ease in the North and the falcons (masses) are no longer hearing (and kowtowing) to the falconer (their once-upon-a-time Fulani overlords) like before. Or, like Bob Marley put it, things are no longer the way they used to be in the North! Those clinging to the past can keep amusing themselves to the contrary!
This is not to say, however, that the North – that nebulous term again! – still does not hold some relevance in the country’s political calculations. Nigeria’s contorted population figures gifted the North an edge over the other regions of the country. Voter-population figures have followed suit, with the North-west being the region holding the largest recorded number of eligible voters. The South-west comes second before the North (North-central) returns again to snatch the third position.
Peter Obi’s South-east records the lowest number of voters, beaten by both the South-south and Atiku Abubakar’s North-east. So it is understandable that the incumbent, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, chose to flag off his campaign in the region with the highest number of registered voters and in a city, Kaduna, regarded as the capital of the once (in)famous Kaduna Mafia, masters of the North’s conservative politics. Politicians care about numbers – real or contrived. They go after votes – won fairly or mangled together.
Therefore, does last Saturday’s outing signify that Tinubu has hit the ground running? And has he also taken the fight to his opponents? Did he have a re-think after seeing the feast his opponents made of his statement that he may not be everywhere campaigning for himself? Is he feeble as his opponents have alleged or is he as fit as a fiddle like he boasted after returning from his recent holiday abroad?
Will the Kaduna outing silence Tinubu’s opponents and convince everyone that the president has the state of mind and sound health for a second term in office? Tinubu as the incumbent holds the yam (the office of president) and the knife (the power and privileges of the office). He is, therefore, the man to beat.
Many will say incumbents are not easy to beat; that they do not succumb easily and not every incumbent runs away from a fight like former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan did; all the same, it is still do-able. Our own recent history as well as those of other democracies prove so. It is, therefore, not a given that Tinubu will win a second term – he may and he may not. But if he must, he has to fight for it.
I did not see much of that fight in him in Kaduna last Saturday. The Kaduna state governor, Uba Sani, and the other party bigwigs who spoke at the rally did more for Tinubu than Tinubu did for himself. Over-confidence? Being too careful not to step on toes? Just warming up? There is a place for audacity in politics, the type Tinubu himself displayed at Abeokuta, Ogun state on June 2, 2022 while gunning for the APC presidential flag. Emi ló kan! O lu’le!
Tinubu’s Kaduna outing was uninspiring and he must speedily make up his mind whether he wants to campaign on his records of achievement, on (new!) promises or he wants to trade excuses with his opponents. In Kaduna, Tinubu did less of the first (his achievements) but dwelt more on the latter. Or is it the media that slanted it that way? One screaming headline said Tinubu promises prosperity if voted in for a second term of office! So he admits there is no prosperity now? What, then, do we have?
Another headline said Tinubu accuses the opposition of being the ones who brought poverty and hunger ravaging the land! And that he, Tinubu, is the one trying to clean up the mess and restore sanity and prosperity! The question is: Which opposition? And when? Peter Obi has not been at the Centre; how, then, did he bring poverty and hunger? I am not saying he did not, but tell us how?
He who alleges has the responsibility to provide proof. Atiku Abubakar was vice-president between 1999 and 2007 and since then he has run unsuccessfully for the office of president; so, how did he bring the current poverty and hunger ravaging the land? Again, I am not vouching for Atiku that he did not, but tell us how!
What I am saying here is that, for Tinubu, promises and excuses won’t do. Bland accusations and trying to pin the problems bedevilling the country on his opponents will not wash. Atiku and Obi are the ones who can still run on promises, excuses and accusations; Tinubu cannot. The sitting president must run on his records of achievement. And I must say that there are many that I can see from my own little corner. Those are what he must run with. He should forget excuses and accusations if he is not ready to provide proof for reasons best known to him.
Give us facts and figures to show how bad the situation was when you took over power. Tell us who was responsible for what. Let us also know what you have done about it. How many of those responsible for running the country down have you brought to book and who are they? What measures have you put in place to prevent a recurrence? Tinubu cannot cover up for some people for reasons best known to him and still expect not to take the blame for the havoc they caused. He cannot have his cake and eat it too!
Four years ago, Tinubu as the APC presidential candidate promised to deliver on a stable power supply. So sure of himself, he vowed that if he fails but comes round to seek re-election, the people should not vote for him. He is yet to deliver on a stable power supply; yet, here he is asking for our votes again! Has he forgotten his promise and vow? He has not; it is just that politicians here take promises as expendable commodities while also treating us the people with disdain.
Ordinarly, Tinubu should not have been bold enough to seek our support again, but politicians usually are not men – and women – of their word. They say things and forget about them instantly. I am perturbed that the president has not even seen the need to explain why he failed to fulfill his promise on a steady power supply. It is not too late to do so.
From my own little corner I learnt that Tinubu’s plans for the power sector suffered a serious blow when Nasir el-Rufai’s past caught up with him and he failed to make it to the president’s cabinet. Nasir had reportedly prepared hard for the job. He is said to have perfected a blueprint that the president was happy with, but his replacement left a sour taste in the mouth, to quote Wole Soyinka in “The Man Died.”
All the same, the people deserve an explanation: the problems, the issues, what has been done, what is being done, how far we have gone; where we are now, and an apology for failing to honour a pledge made in the open. That is the path of honour.
It is also not too late to take another hard look at fuel subsidy and the steep devaluation of the Naira – twin policies that have caused, and are still causing, unmitigated suffering in the land. If Tinubu will not bring back these, what will he bring? Something has got to give!
When Gov. Sani said thousands of students from the North have benefitted from Tinubu’s commendable loan scheme for undergraduates, why did they not line up some of the beneficiaries to testify with their own mouths? That would have been more authentic.
When the Kaduna state governor said hundreds of schools and health centres previously closed down as a result of insurgency have now reopened, we should have seen the students and health workers involved troop out to sing the president’s praises. That would have been more dramatic.
When APC’s Presidential Campaign Council D-G, Abdullaziz Yari, spoke of the millions of poor Northerners and households that have benefitted from Tinubu’s cash transfers, we should have seen at least a few thousands of such women, clutching their babies, trooping out to do “ranka-dede” to Mr. President. Campaigns usually are about pomp, colour, panache, and razzmatazz.
Why hide the president’s achievements? Showcase each and everyone of it. Flaunt it. Dramatize it. Rub it in their face. Shove it down the throat of nay-sayers!
Except, of course – like a sitting governor once told me – politicians here know how they “win” their elections!
* Former Editor of PUNCH newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-Chief, BOLAWOLE was also the Managing Director/ Editor-in-Chief of The WESTERNER newsmagazine. He writes the ON THE LORD’S DAY column in the SUNDAY TRIBUNE and TREASURES column in the NEW TELEGRAPH newspaper on Wednesdays. He is also a public affairs analyst on radio and television.
