By Otunba (Dr) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo
From Anambra to Abuja to Osun, the ballot box is delivering a clear verdict: a coalition of political heavyweights without grassroots machinery does not automatically win elections.
Since the opposition coalition adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in July 2025, the lineup has looked impressive on paper Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, David Mark, Rauf Aregbesola, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Aminu Tambuwal and others. On television and social media it sounded almost unstoppable. Elections, however, are won with votes, not headlines.
The evidence so far
August 2025 by-elections
* Anambra South Senatorial: APGA 90,408 | APC 19,847 | ADC 2,889
* Onitsha North: APGA 7,774 | ADC 1,909
* Chikun/Kajuru (Kaduna): APC 34,580 | PDP 11,491 | ADC 3,477
* Basawa (Kaduna): APC 10,996 | PDP 5,499 | ADC 146
Anambra governorship, November 2025 APGA (Soludo) 422,664 | APC 99,445 | YPP 37,753 | LP 10,576 | ADC 8,208 (about 1.4% of valid votes) — in Peter Obi’s home state.
FCT Area Council elections, February 2026 APC took five of six chairmanships; PDP took one. ADC won none. Notable results: AMAC (ADC 12,109), Bwari (4,254), Gwagwalada (1,366), Abaji (37).
Osun governorship, 2026 Accord (Adeleke) 511,067 | APC 444,815 | ADC 17,180 This in the state where ADC’s National Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, governed for eight years.
Fame is not electoral value
A former governor, senator, vice-president or presidential candidate is not automatically a vote-mover. Structures erode, loyalists move on, and the machinery that once belonged to an office often stays with the office. Yesterday’s heavyweight can become today’s electoral lightweight.
Social-media energy is not organisation. Viral posts do not replace polling-unit agents, ward coordinators or community leaders who actually know the voters. Another big-name announcement does not put a single extra ballot in the box.
The practical test for 2027
Anyone considering ADC because the names look formidable should ask harder questions:
How many wards does the party truly control? How many agents can it field on election day? How many voters can its celebrated figures actually transfer? And where has that supposed strength already shown up in real results?
The emerging pattern is consistent. ADC has visibility and celebrity. It does not yet have corresponding votes. Political noise is not political structure. A coalition of big names is not automatically a coalition of voters.
When election day comes, the ballot paper does not count titles, headlines or followers. It counts votes. So far, the numbers are asking ADC and anyone watching a simple question:
Where are the votes?
Otunba (Dr) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo
National Chairman AATSG
Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu Support Group.
