Strategic Missteps That Cost APC the State — And Why PBAT Still Emerges Stronger

Martin (Moderator Matto) Akindana
Martin (Moderator Matto) Akindana
Moderator Matto Publisher, Chatafrik Silver Spring, Maryland USA matto1@msn.com

By Yemi Agbayewa

Not being a political activist, it does seem strange somehow for me to take time off a family holiday to write this piece on the just-concluded Osun State gubernatorial election, or that may be due to a personal relationship with Adeleke’s dating back to the days of Alhaji Isiaka Adeleke, Serubawon of blessed memory. May Allah grant him the highest peak of Jannah and forgive all his sins.
The political landscape in Osun began to shift long before anyone cast their votes. Many political analysts believe that the All Progressives Congress (APC) effectively handed over the state when party leaders blocked Senator Jackson Adeleke from joining their ranks after the PDP’s internal structure in the state fell apart.
That one decision changed everything, highlighting a self-destructive tendency evident from the days of Aregbesola and Oyetola to the present, to prioritise personal ambitions over a cohesive strategy within the Osun APC leadership.
Instead of consolidating their strength by aligning with a popular, electorally viable figure, the party chose to retreat into internal gatekeeping. That miscalculation opened the space the Accord Party quickly occupied, enabling Adeleke to build an uncontested support base reinforced by the Adeleke family’s enduring political legacy in Osun State.
Once that momentum was established, it became nearly impossible to turn back. After the internal discord, PBAT’s approach shifted noticeably, and it refrained from providing substantial infrastructural or political support to the APC’s eventual candidate.
This left the party machinery weakened, fragmented, and unable to present a credible challenge. In such a scenario, no contender, no matter how skilled or popular, stood a realistic chance against Jackson Adeleke. His victory was not just a testament to his personal and Omoluabi appeal but also a result of the strategic openings created by the APC’s own internal choices.
While the APC’s defeat in Osun might seem like a setback at first glance, the wider political implications tell a different tale. PBAT actually comes out ahead in the long run for one crucial reason: the enhanced perception of INEC’s neutrality.
Adeleke’s win, achieved without federal interference and against an APC candidate, bolsters the narrative that the electoral process is independent and credible. This makes it much more challenging for opposition groups to question INEC’s impartiality in future elections.
*Yemi Agbayewa, writing from White Rock, Vancouver, Canada*

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Moderator Matto Publisher, Chatafrik Silver Spring, Maryland USA matto1@msn.com
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