By Okoi Obono-Obla
In 2023, Dr. Alex Otti was part of the Obidient movement and the Labour Party’s governorship candidate for Abia State. He won handsomely and overwhelmingly after the Labour Party’s presidential candidate coasted to a spectacular victory at the presidential polls in the South-East. The bandwagon effect of that victory was largely hinged on a cocktail of identity and religious politics, which the South-East geopolitical zone has earned notoriety for, basking under a so-called marginalization and siege mentality that has defined its approach to politics.
However, the Labour Party soon fell apart, and Peter Obi, who professes not to have the stomach, strength, and stamina for the internecine political infighting which is the hallmark of partisan politics, abandoned the Labour Party to pitch his tent with the ADC, thereby ending his political marriage with Dr. Alex Otti, his ally who contributed to his victory in Abia State in 2023.
In the 2027 general elections, even though Dr. Alex Otti remains in the Labour Party and is likely to win a second term on account of his stellar performance, he has declared his preference for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and has indeed been appointed campaign coordinator for President Tinubu’s campaign, leaving Peter Obi, who is running under the NDC as its presidential candidate, in the lurch.
It is to the credit of the political alacrity and shrewdness of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu that opposition figures from three political parties have all rallied and are galvanizing support for him. Abia State is one of those states where President Tinubu is likely to score more than 35 percent in the 2027 presidential election, with grassroots politicians like Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, a former governor of the state and also a senatorial candidate, providing the grassroots anchor.
THE OFFICIAL INEC POSITION FOR 2027 – ABIA STATE
According to the final lists published on inecnigeria.org for January 2027:
Presidential: The final list confirms a realignment. ADC now fields Abubakar Atiku with Amaechi Chibuike Rotimi as running mate. APC fields Tinubu Bola Ahmed with Shettima Kashim. Labour Party fields Okereke Sunday Chibuzo. NDC fields Obi Peter Gregory. This means Peter Obi is now in NDC, not ADC or Labour.
Senatorial: Abia North – ADC: Okoronkwo Ikechukwu Bishop Godswill, APC: Kalu Orji Uzor. Abia Central – ADC: Austine Okwudiri Akobundu, APC: Atuma Emeka, NDC: Nkechi Nwaogu. Abia South – ADC: Isiguzor Chukwuemeka Victor, APC: Ikonne Prince Paul, LP: Abaribe Enyinnaya Harcourt.
House of Representatives (8 seats) and State Assembly (24 seats): Labour, APC, ADC, NDC and PDP are present in all constituencies. Labour’s strength remains visible in all 24 state constituencies, with candidates like Ehuchie Ijeoma Florence I in Aba North.
PERMUTATION: HOW THE PARTIES WILL FARE
The ADC and NRC have very weak structures in Abia, as earlier observed. ADC, now with Atiku as its candidate, will struggle in Abia. NDC, despite a weak structure, has Peter Obi who, being from the South-East, will enjoy a groundswell of support on identity and religious sentimental grounds.
Labour remains strong due to the backing of Governor Alex Otti. Because of his stellar performance, he is likely to win a second term and deliver Labour majorities in the State House of Assembly and at least 4-5 of the 8 Federal Constituencies.
The presidential contest in Abia will witness ticket-splitting. NDC (Obi) will win the sentimental vote. APC (Tinubu), boosted by Governor Otti’s declaration as campaign coordinator and Senator Kalu Orji’s grassroots network, is positioned to achieve the projected 35 percent and above – a significant leap from 2023. Labour’s presidential candidate will be orphaned, as the structure that produced victory in 2023 is now aligned with Tinubu for president.
CONCLUSION
Abia 2027 will be defined by performance over party. Labour at home for governorship and legislative seats, APC/NDC split at the presidential level. It is the ultimate test of Governor Alex Otti’s political dexterity – retaining his Labour base while serving as the arrowhead for President Tinubu’s renewed hope campaign in a state historically resistant to the centre.
