By Okoi Obono-Obla
I. INTRODUCTION – ANAMBRA AS THE POLITICAL BAROMETER OF THE SOUTH-EAST
Anambra State is the heartland of the South-East geopolitical zone and the perfect barometer of what the South-East is thinking. Its political oscillation often sets the tone for the rest of the zone, and what happens in Awka reverberates in Enugu, Owerri, Umuahia and Abakaliki.
Understanding 2027 requires understanding 1999-2026.
Since the return to civil rule in 1999, Anambra has had only two political eras. The first was the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) era from 1999 to 2006 – Governor Chinwoke Mbadinuju (1999-2003) and Dr. Chris Ngige (2003-2006) whose tenure was truncated by the courts. Since then, Anambra has been under the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), a regional party conceived as the arrowhead of the Igbo people and as a springboard for national political reckoning.
APGA has governed Anambra since 2006. It has produced three governors: Peter Obi (2006-2014), Willie Obiano (2014-2022) and the incumbent, Professor Charles Chukwuma Soludo (2022-date). Soludo, a former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, was re-elected in spectacular fashion on 8 November 2025, winning all 21 Local Government Areas with 422,664 votes, about 80% of votes cast. He was sworn in for his second term on 17 March 2026. His first term ran 17 March 2022 to 17 March 2026, so his second term ends 17 March 2030, not 2031.
After his re-election, Soludo made a pronouncement that APGA will support the second-term re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu because he has done well. President Tinubu has in turn appointed him his campaign coordinator for Anambra State for the 2027 presidential campaign. INEC and media reports confirm: Wike is a member of PDP, Soludo was re-elected for a second term in November 2025 on the platform of APGA, while Adeleke won his re-election, and under the new arrangement, Soludo will oversee campaign activities in Anambra State. Although Soludo belongs to APGA, this accentuates the belief that APGA is in alliance with the APC.
In 2023, President Tinubu lost Anambra woefully and his total votes did not score up to ten percent of total votes cast, as Peter Obi, then candidate of the Labour Party, made a clean sweep of his home state.
The dynamics of 2023 are different from the dynamism of 2027. President Tinubu is now running as a strong incumbent with enormous instruments of political patronage. Two instruments matter in Anambra:
a) The South-East Development Commission (SEDC): Signed into law in July 2024 and inaugurated February 2025, funded at N140 billion in 2025 and 2026 budgets, with Anambra indigene Dr. Mark Okoye as Managing Director.
b) The Bianca Ojukwu Factor: President Tinubu appointed Ambassador Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, wife of the popular Igbo leader and founder of APGA Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, as Minister of State for Foreign Affairs in October 2024 and promoted her to substantive Minister of Foreign Affairs in March 2026. This is a symbolic capture of the Ojukwu legacy that APGA has traded on since 2003.
APGA has been unrelenting in attacks on Peter Obi to rubbish his claim of being an astute manager of resources by alleging he left Anambra in financial ruin during his eight years.
II. THE 2027 BALLOT – WHAT INEC HAS RELEASED
INEC released its final lists on 12 September 2026, signed by Secretary Rose Oriaran-Anthony. Presidential and National Assembly elections are scheduled for 16 January 2027 and Governorship and State Assembly for 6 February 2027.
Anambra will NOT have a governorship election on 6 February 2027. Its governorship is off-cycle and was just concluded in November 2025. Only the 30 State House of Assembly seats will be contested on that date.
INEC’s final presidential list contains 18 candidates and running mates. The National Assembly list contains 4,408 candidates – 1,195 senatorial and 3,213 House of Representatives.
Key presidential candidates verified from INEC:
Bola Ahmed Tinubu – APC – incumbent
Atiku Abubakar – ADC – former Vice President, now African Democratic Congress flagbearer, 79 years old
Peter Obi – NDC – Nigeria Democratic Congress, with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as running mate. Obi left Labour in Dec 2025 after the opposition coalition that adopted ADC as platform suffered a split, then moved to NDC.
Omoyele Sowore – AAC
Seyi Makinde – APM
Sandy Ojang Onor – PDP
Donald Duke – PRP
Adewole Adebayo – SDP
Ada Elizabeth Frederick Okwori – NDP (female)
Nkem Esther Okereke – NRM (female)
11-18. Candidates of APP, DLA, LP, YPP and others, including 4 female running mates.
III. VOTING STRENGTH OF ANAMBRA
INEC 2026 Voter Register: Nigeria 103.4 million. South-East: 11,976,218.
Anambra leads the South-East with 2,917,728 registered voters, followed by Imo 2,706,052, Abia 2,306,520, Enugu 2,217,862 and Ebonyi 1,828,056.
But registration is not voting. In the November 2025 governorship, out of 2,788,864 registered voters, only 595,298 (21.35%) participated. 78.65% did not vote. Women are 51.03% of registered voters.
Anambra is high-registration, low-turnout. Whoever moves the 2.2 million dormant voters wins 2027.
IV. PERMUTATIONS: HOW PARTIES WILL FARE
A. PRESIDENTIAL – 16 JANUARY 2027
NDC (Peter Obi): Still favourite. NDC senatorial candidates Victor Umeh (Central), Tony Nwoye (North) and Ebuka Onunkwo (South) have emerged as NDC candidates. Umeh and Nwoye were Labour senators before defecting to ADC then NDC. Will the Muslim-Muslim ticket be weaponized in rural areas? Yes, but less than 2023 because Tinubu now has Igbo faces in cabinet.
APC (Tinubu): Will improve from <10% in 2023 to 15-35% – the first time APC will be respectable in Anambra since 2015.
ADC (Atiku): Atiku who enjoyed resonance in 2019 is now seen as Northern irredentist. Projection: 3-12% in Anambra.
B. NATIONAL ASSEMBLY – 16 JANUARY 2027
NDC favourite for 2-3 Senate seats. APC could take Anambra Central via Uche Ekwunife if presidential hits 30%. APGA’s focus is State Assembly, with Stella Oduah seeking Anambra North ticket.
C. STATE ASSEMBLY – 6 FEBRUARY 2027
APGA retains majority (16-20 seats) but NDC becomes main opposition with 8-12 seats if momentum carries from 16 January.
Conclusion:
Anambra in 2027 remains sentimentally attached to Peter Obi, but the sentiment is now contested by federal patronage. Soludo has broken APGA’s historical isolation by aligning with the centre. With SEDC, Bianca Ojukwu as Foreign Minister, and Soludo as coordinator, President Tinubu has more instruments to sway Anambra than any APC President since 2015. He will not win Anambra, but he will, for the first time, make APC competitive in the heartland of the South-East.
