By Okoi Obono-Obla
Based on INEC Final List of 241 Candidates for 36 Elective Positions
I. THE STARTING POINT
INEC has cleared 241 candidates for 36 positions in Cross River: 8 for governorship, 25 for Senate, 63 for House of Representatives, 145 for State Assembly. 198 male, 43 female.
Only eight parties made the governorship final list: APC, APP, APM, NRM, LP, AA, ADP and PDP. ADC and NDC were omitted from governorship, though they contest legislative seats. Fourteen parties total, but only APC fielded candidates for all positions.
Final senatorial list: North – Jarigbe Jarigbe Agom (APC), Ugbong Casmir (ADC), Ake Abuashe Grace (NDC) with PDP having no candidate; Central – Ewa Oden Ibiang (APC), Akin Rickett (ADC), Ewa Bassey Eko (NDC) and John Ifere (PDP); South – Ekpenyong Asuquo (APC), Edet Joseph (ADC), Egwu Egwu Arong (NDC) and Inyang Florence (PDP). Calabar South has 7 female Assembly candidates, the highest.
II. STRUCTURE OF POWER
APC is dominant, not just incumbent: Executive – Governor Bassey Otu; Legislature – majority in State Assembly (19 of 25 in 2023, now consolidated); Local Government – all 18 LGA chairmen; National Assembly – all 3 Senate seats after Jarigbe’s defection.
NDC is new with no tested ward and LGA structures across 18 LGAs. Same is true of ADC in Cross River. Both lack polling unit agents and cannot compete statewide.
III. 2023 VS 2027 VARIABLES
2023 presidential Labour win – 179,917 vs APC 130,520 vs PDP 95,425 – was driven by Muslim-Muslim backlash in a Christian state, naira redesign cash scarcity, fuel queues, and youth wave. All are gone in 2027. No cash scarcity, fuel available, Muslim-Muslim normalized, Labour weakened. 2023 was a wave election; 2027 will be a machine election.
IV. THE WIKE FACTOR
PDP presidential candidate is from Cross River State, a Wike protégé, while Wike openly mobilizes for Tinubu. Wike has said he will mobilise for Tinubu’s re-election while PDP can still field candidates for governorship and NASS. The candidate from Cross River gets PDP ticket with Wike’s help but loses Wike’s presidential machine. In Cross River, Wike’s loyalists will vote Tinubu.
V. FINAL PREDICTIONS
A. Governorship – APC WIN
Winner: APC – Bassey Otu re-elected 54-58% vs PDP 28-32% vs Labour 6-8% vs Others 6-8% – Margin 22-28 points. APC has 18 LGAs, Assembly, sole candidate endorsement. Opposition fragmented, ADC/NDC out.
B. National Assembly – REVISED WITH ODEN EWA FACTOR
As depicted in the artist impression, the broom sweeps the map:
Cross River North: APC WIN – Jarigbe Jarigbe Agom 65-70% – SAFEST. PDP has no candidate, ADC and NDC under 15% each.
Cross River Central: APC WIN – Ewa Oden Ibiang 58-62% vs PDP John Ifere 32-36% – NOW SAFE APC. Oden Ibiang Ewa is youthful, has enormous capacity, financial muscle, seen as new kid on the bloc with broad support across Central because of youth vitality, plus total support of Governor Otu and total support of APC hierarchy in Central – Ikom, Boki, Yakurr, Abi, Obubra, Etung. PDP presidential candidate from Cross River lacks capacity to flip Central.
Cross River South: APC WIN – Ekpenyong Asuquo 56-60%
Overall Senate: APC 3-0 sweep – 90% probability.
House of Reps 8 Seats: APC 6, PDP 2. PDP retains Ogoja/Yala and Obudu/Obanliku/Bekwarra. State Assembly 24 Seats: APC 20-21.
C. Presidential in Cross River State – Tinubu vs PDP Candidate from Cross River
As shown in the right panel of the illustration, this is the historic ballot: Incumbent President Bola Tinubu (APC) vs PDP candidate from Cross River State.
Projection:
Tinubu (APC): 48-52%
PDP candidate from Cross River: 30-34%
Labour: 12-15%
Others: 3-5%
Result: President Tinubu wins Cross River State by 15-18 points.
South: Tinubu 55-60% – APC stronghold. Central: Tinubu 50-55% – Oden Ewa delivers for APC. North: PDP candidate from Cross River may narrowly win 45-48% vs 42-45% due to home sympathy, but cannot overturn Central and South.
VI. CONCLUSION
Governorship is a machine election – APC landslide.
National Assembly is an incumbency election – APC 3-0 sweep, Central now safe APC because Oden Ibiang Ewa combines youth, financial muscle, and total backing of Governor Otu and APC hierarchy.
Presidential in Cross River is an identity vs incumbency election – Despite PDP fielding a candidate from Cross River State, President Tinubu wins Cross River by 15-18 points because the PDP candidate lacks capacity to flip Central where Oden Ewa is dominant, and Wike supports Tinubu.
The artist impression captures it: APC broom sweeping 18 LGAs, Oden Ewa energizing Central as new generation, and the presidential ballot that pits sitting President Tinubu against Cross River’s own on the same day.
