2027: Two, three or four-horse race?

By Bolanle BOLAWOLE

turnpot@gmail.com 0705 263 1058

“It’s looking like many horses will run in the 2027 presidential race”

“And who are the horses?”

“The incumbent is one of them…”

“God willing!”

“What do you mean?”

“Don’t put anything beyond God. That is why economists say ceteris paribus”

“And what have economists got to do with the politics of 2027?”

“Ceteris paribus means ‘all else being equal’. Who can hold other variables constant if not God?”

“I see! So, ceteris paribus, the incumbent President is one of the 2027 horses that we already know. And who are the others?”

“The perennial challenger, Atiku, is another. He has contested six times already…”

“You don’t mean it! It means he has already beaten Muhammadu Buhari’s record. To borrow the Yoruba grammar of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Buhari lu’le three times before making it the fourth time…!”

“And that was because Buhari had someone like Tinubu to piggy-back him. But Atiku has not been so lucky! If he contests again in 2027, it will become seven times: 1993, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023.”

“Then he should contest! Seven is the number of perfection! He may be lucky this time around”

“You are right! Luck plays a role in all that we do; but destiny, too. If you are not destined…”

“Uuumh! The truth is that we are both physical and spiritual. Most times, the spiritual trumps the physical. What we do not see is superior to what we see”

“So you think Atiku stands a chance in 2027?”

“Not what I think, but there is no harm in trying, if he has not yet exhausted his treasury. One way wealth is redistributed in Nigeria is during elections. N5,000 or N10,000, the masses will at least take something back from their heartless rulers…”

“But the pittance they get compares little with what the politicians themselves make during elections: party leaders, those who elect delegates, the delegates themselves…”

“And these are not the only ones. What of INEC? Those who eat and clean mouth…”

“As how?”

“They collect humongous amount to conduct elections; and no one dare vouch they would not turn around to compromise the same elections by collecting gratifications right, left, and centre”

“I see!”

“And they are not even alone. What of the security agencies, INEC ad-hoc staff and all those who turn blind eyes to vote-buying and vote-selling at polling stations?”

“Not to forget the tribunals and judges…”

“And the lawyers! Elections fall like a bull buffalo for those ones…”

“And what is the meaning of ‘bull buffalo’?”

“That was how the Ugandan author and poet, Prof. Okot p’Bitek, described the kill that African leaders make under the guise of elections and democracy.”

“Democracy, then, is a ruse…”

“Especially the way it is mangled by African leaders. Besides, only countries where the people have chopped bellefull, as they say, can meaningfully practise expensive Western democracy…”

“You mean Western democracy is not suitable for us?”

“It is not suitable if a similar Western level of development – educationally and economically – is not available. It took them centuries to arrive at universal adult suffrage, but we jumped at it in one fell swoop. They tested the waters one foot after another, but we introduced two legs at once…”

“And we sank almost immediately…”

“Exactly! How many years did the so-called democracy survive in Nigeria before military take-over? Those we imitated navigated the river from the edges but we jumped into it midstream. They climbed their tree from its trunk but we climbed ours from the leaves…”

“Oh my God! I never understood it like this before! So democracy is a scam…”

“And election, a charade! Here, the people are not given a chance to elect their leaders; not minding the noise made about democracy …”

“Why, then, do we trouble ourselves with elaborate organization of elections, wasting billions of Naira in the process?”

“Not billions, but trillions! INEC alone is asking for a little less than one trillion Naira. Factor what the security agencies will ask for. Consider the tribunals and appellate courts. Then think of what the politicians themselves will spend procuring the tickets, buying votes, compromising security and election officers, securing the briefs of fat-cat lawyers and, finally, buying judgment…”

“I am lost for words! And you still think we should continue with preparations for the 2027 elections?”

“Stop calling them elections! They are avenues to redistribute wealth, however imperfectly. The problem is, even in that re-distribution process, the poor masses still hold the short end of the stick”

“So the elections, sorry, charade, will still be held next year?”

“Yes, they will. We already mentioned one of the horses; who do you think are the others?”

“Yes, the incumbent for sure is one, ceteris paribus! He has virtually emptied the whole country into his party. All the state governors, except one or two, have either defected into his party or are rooting for him wherever they are.”

“The way you coined the narrative is most unfair. They emptied themselves into his party, not that he emptied them…”

“Gb’omo f’oyan, gb’oyan f’omo, as the Yoruba would say; they both mean the same thing”

“I agree, but let’s try and be non-committal with the language we employ. Let the child die from its mother’s hand, as the same Yoruba you quoted would also say. So, who are the governors still standing? Two, three, or four?”

“Ceteris paribus, because no one knows tomorrow, APC has 31 governors; PDP, two (Oyo and Bauchi states); Accord Party (Osun state), APGA (Anambra state); and Labour Party (Abia state) – but that is on paper, though!”

“What do you mean, ‘on paper’?”

“Because some of them are in a different party but are rooting for Tinubu all the same…”

“Really? Like Wike who is FCT Minister in an APC government but who is also a factional PDP leader reportedly singing l’eekan si for Tinubu?”

“Exactly! It is an understatement to say that Wike is rooting for Tinubu. He is holding PDP down for Tinubu to coast home to victory in 2027. I understand that some of the remaining opposition governors also wanted to defect to APC but were denied the opportunity?”

“Why? Did they not say the more, the merrier?”

“Politics is not a straightforward game. Some party topguns who felt they would be shortchanged if some governors were allowed to defect into APC reportedly blocked the move. In the real sense of the word, only Gov. Seyi Makinde of Oyo state appears as the last man standing…”

“What of the Bauchi man? He, too, was talking tough the other time…”

“And that was how he talked himself into trouble – like Kwankwaso, the Kano man! He now has two headaches to nurse – EFCC and the Americans.”

“I understand EFCC. He has had a running battle with those ones; but which one concerns the Americans in the matter?”

“His enemies went down memory lane and fished out statements he had made allegedly supporting the Fulani terrorists perpetrating Christian genocide in Nigeria…”

“Oh my God! And Trump will have none of that!”

“So, who will want such a man in their party? Hence, they tactically evaded him by giving him impossible conditions to fulfill if he must defect…”

“Just like they tactically denied el-Rufai ministerial appointment? Dis APC sef!”

“So, some of the governors still outside the APC are merely standing on one leg. Only Makinde appears to be standing on two legs for now…”

“What do you mean ‘for now?’ Do you suspect something?”

“Ceteris paribus! If all things are not equal, anything can happen!”

“I see! And what is Kwankwaso’s own in the matter?”

“He, too, ran his mouth against the Americans. Pronto, his name appeared on the list of sponsors of terrorism, which is more or less a death sentence on his political ambition…”

“But if Shettima, why not Kwankwaso?”

“Shettima is a baby already born; you cannot abort it again. Besides, the Americans are the masters of the presidential system of government that we imitate here. They know the uselessness of spare tyres, which a vice-president is. What is the name of the US vice-president?”

“I don’t think I ever knew it!”

“So you see what I mean!”

“But what if Kwankwaso becomes running-mate to Obi? The combination of Obi/Kwankwaso supported by Makinde and Gov. Bala Mohammed of Bauchi state under the aegis of OBJ, as had been widely reported, can be another powerful horse in 2027.”

“That is if Makinde and Mohamed do not harbour their own separate presidential ambition. Ambition is what truncates every good move by politicians. Besides, do you think the conservative North is ready for an Igbo president?”

“The answer blows in the wind! But where does all of this leave Atiku? Will he be the third horse or will he stay in the wings and play the spoiler?”

”If Obi is not available and with his running mate in the last presidential election, Delta state’s former Gov. Ifeanyi Okowa, ditching him, who, again, can Atiku pick? Makinde is not available in the south-west and Rotimi Amaechi is featherweight…”

“Paper-weight, you should say! But don’t be too sure of Makinde. Again, remember, ceteris paribus! If the price is right, our politicians will fall for anything. As a second-term politician, Makinde has nothing to lose. Even Obi can still go back to Atiku.”

“In all of these, where is the place of PDP? The party is as dead as dodo”

“Don’t be too sure! All it takes to revive the party is for the politicians to troop back into it again…”

“For instance, if former President Goodluck Jonathan swallows the bait and declares to run for the presidency in 2027 on the PDP ticket? But does Jonathan stand a chance? The conservative North may, however, be more amenable to Jonathan than Obi”

“Jonathan can only spend one term of four years if he is eligible to contest and he contests and wins. Who can trust Obi and his rancorous Obidient crowd to honour the pledge of only one term of four years?”

“Even if Obi succumbs, the courtiers that surround the corridors of power will not let him. All manner of arguments will surface to argue forcefully for him to continue in office…”

“That’s true! It is then they will quote constitutional provisions! It is also then they will calculate how many years the North and West have ruled the country and how the Igbos have been marginalized…”

“But to be fair to our Igbo brothers, this is not an Igbo malaise. See Ondo state where it appears as clear as daylight that the incumbent governor cannot run again. Yet, he is threatening to go as far as the Supreme Court to test the waters! Who did this to us?”

“Power is sweet, that is why; especially so in Nigeria where there are no restraints on those in power. But for how long?”

“Until it collapses again! Because the politicians appear to have learnt nothing and have forgotten nothing! 2027 promises to be a defining moment for Nigeria – for good or for bad”

“I pray it is for good! Do you think a dark horse can emerge, ceteris paribus? Or will the various opposition platforms solidify into one to confront the APC behemoth?”

“Time will tell!”

* Former editor of PUNCH newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-chief, BOLAWOLE was also the Managing Director/Editor-in-chief of The Westerner news magazine. He writes the ON THE LORD’S DAY column in the Sunday Tribune and TREASURES column in New Telegraph newspaper on Wednesdays. He is also a public affairs analyst on radio and television.