By Daniel ONI
🇳🇬 Who Are Nigerians Really Going to Vote For in January 2027?
That is the big question. And right now, nobody can honestly say they know the final answer.
Nigeria’s presidential election is scheduled for January 16, 2027, with 18 presidential candidates on INEC’s final list.
But an important question remains:
Where is the Nigerian voter actually leaning?
The latest SBM Intelligence Voter Sentiment Tracker, released September 21, gives a snapshot of the electorate—but it is not a prediction of the election result.
Among the 1,103 respondents surveyed across 12 states and the FCT, covering all six geopolitical zones:
NDC — 42.2%
APC — 25.5%
That represents a much narrower gap than SBM recorded in May, when the figures were 57.4% for the NDC and roughly 11% for the APC.
And there is another interesting divide.
Among urban respondents, the survey recorded NDC support at 49.5%, compared with 20.9% for APC.
Among rural and small-town respondents, APC was at 35.2%, compared with 27.6% for NDC.
So the picture is far from simple.
🛢️ What about the issues Nigerians care about?
The economy, cost of living, security, employment and fuel prices are likely to remain important campaign issues.
In the latest SBM survey, petrol emerged as the second-most cited national problem, mentioned by 18.2% of respondents. The survey also found that 67.4% rejected the government’s position on the relevant petrol policy, compared with 19.2% who supported it.
At the same time, SBM found that the proportion of respondents saying Nigeria was moving in the wrong direction fell from 79.5% in May to 56.8% in September, while President Tinubu’s net favourability improved substantially compared with the earlier survey.
🤔 So… who will Nigerians vote for?
We don’t know yet.
The September numbers measure current sentiment, not January’s final vote. Between now and election day, campaigns, debates, alliances, candidate messaging, economic conditions, turnout and events across the country can all change voter preferences.
And with 18 presidential candidates, the final contest involves more than simply asking which major politician is ahead today.
Perhaps the most important question is not:
> “Who is winning today?”
but:
> “What will convince Nigerians to give their vote when they finally stand before the ballot box?”
January 2027 is coming. 🇳🇬
- The voters will have the final word.
Chatafrik — Conversations about the Nigeria we have, the Nigeria we can build, and the future we should demand.
