By Okoi Obono-Obla
INEC today published the final list for the January 16, 2027 Presidential and National Assembly elections at its FCT office. In line with Section 32(1) of the 2026 Electoral Act, 18 parties were confirmed for President.
The list: APC – Tinubu/Shettima, ADC – Atiku/Amaechi, NDC – Obi/Kwankwaso, LP – Okereke/Konto, PDP – Onor/Babangida, plus AA, ADP, APP, AAC, APM, BP, DLA, NDP, NRM, PRP, SDP, YPP, ZLP.
The real story is in the National Assembly list. Only APC, PDP and ADC filed for all 469 seats (109 Senate + 360 Reps). NDC filed for 109 Senate and 219 Reps. The other 14 parties have no governorship candidates in most states and no complete Assembly slates. You cannot win President in Nigeria without 176,000 polling unit agents.
From 18, four are viable. APC has incumbency and structure in NW and SW. ADC is the main opposition bloc in NE, NW and NC. NDC merges Obi’s 6.1m 2023 LP votes and Kwankwaso’s 1.4m NNPP votes and becomes competitive in SE, SS, Lagos, FCT and Kano. PDP retains structure but has lost its blocs to ADC and NDC. I project 3-6% for PDP.
The remaining 14 are ballot paper parties. In 2019, 73 parties combined for less than 2%. In 2023, bottom 14 combined for 1.4%. BVAS and IReV have made it impossible to win without agents. Debates will exclude anyone below 5%. The new LP without Obi will not exceed 0.3%.
Deposit Test: A candidate forfeits N30m if he fails to score 25% in one state.
Only Seyi Makinde on APM will save deposit – 45-52% in Oyo where he is governor, though 1.5-2.5% nationally. Sowore (AAC) may hit 10-12% in Ondo Ilaje, 5-7% in FCT/Lagos. Adebayo (SDP) may hit 15-18% in FCT/Nasarawa. Duke (PRP) may hit 12-15% in Cross River South. AA, ADP, APP, BP, DLA, NDP, NRM, YPP, ZLP, new LP will get under 500 votes per state and forfeit in all 37.
CONCLUSION:
On January 16, 2027, APC will poll 38-42%, ADC 28-32%, NDC 25-30%, PDP 3-6%, APM 1.5-2.5% concentrated in Oyo, and the other 13 combined less than 1.5%. No fringe party will win a state except Oyo for APM, no Senate seat, maybe one House seat on personal popularity.
Their value is not winning. It is endorsing. By late December 2026, most will adopt one of the top three. Nigeria’s presidential election is effectively a four-horse race.
