THE TROPHY AFTER BAT: BUILDING THE BRIDGE WE HAVE FAILED TO BUILD A Strategic Covenant for Unity, Negotiation and Political Power Beyond 2031

By Ibrahim BUNU

ibrahimbunu2520@gmail.com

There comes a moment in the life of every political generation when lamentation must give way to strategy.

We may complain about exclusion. We may recount the history of political domination. We may analyse how certain groups have mastered the art of organisation, negotiation, patience and political succession. We may point fingers at those who appear to be negotiating their interests quietly while the rest of us are arguing loudly among ourselves.

But none of that, by itself, changes the balance of power.

Power does not surrender itself because we are frustrated with it. Power moves when organised interests become sufficiently united, strategic and indispensable.

That is the uncomfortable truth we must confront as we look beyond the Bola Ahmed Tinubu era toward 2031.

If we genuinely believe that the next political chapter should produce a president from a different coalition, region, generation or political constituency, then the question is no longer:

“Why are they doing this to us?”

The more important question is:

“What are we doing today to make our desired political future possible tomorrow?”

That is the question this generation must answer.

1. FIRST, LET US UNDERSTAND THE REAL PROBLEM

Our greatest weakness may not be that other political blocs are stronger than us.

It may be that we have repeatedly failed to behave like a political bloc.

We are numerous, but numbers without coordination are merely statistics.

We have influential individuals, but influential individuals without a common negotiating platform become isolated centres of power.

We have businessmen, professionals, academics, traditional institutions, religious leaders, youth organisations, civil society actors and politicians.

But do they operate as parts of one strategic architecture?

Too often, the answer is no.

One person negotiates for himself.

Another negotiates for his state.

Another negotiates for his ethnic constituency.

Another negotiates for his political party.

Another waits for an appointment.

Another begins attacking the person who could potentially become his ally tomorrow.

And by the time everyone finishes fighting over today’s disagreement, someone else has already negotiated tomorrow.

This is the cycle we must break.

2. STOP CONFUSING EMOTION WITH STRATEGY

Political emotion is understandable.

Strategic politics is different.

If another political constituency has demonstrated the ability to think decades ahead, the intelligent response is not resentment.

It is to study the method.

What works?

What doesn’t?

How are alliances created?

How are disagreements managed?

How are political candidates identified?

How is money mobilised?

How are grassroots structures maintained between elections?

How are political negotiations conducted?

How are succession questions discussed before they become public battles?

And most importantly:

How do they maintain enough internal cohesion to negotiate with everyone else from a position of strength?

We should learn from political organisation wherever it exists—without demonising an entire ethnic or religious community.

The objective is not to defeat another Nigerian identity.

The objective is to build a Nigerian coalition strong enough to negotiate fairly with every Nigerian identity.

3. THE FIRST STRATEGIC PRINCIPLE: DEFINE THE TROPHY

We cannot organise around an emotional slogan.

We need a precise political objective.

If the objective is to produce the next president after President Tinubu in 2031, then we must define what that actually means.

It means building, years before the election:

* a credible candidate;
* a broad national coalition;
* an effective political organisation;
* financial capacity;
* grassroots structures;
* intellectual legitimacy;
* youth participation;
* women’s mobilisation;
* media capacity;
* polling and electoral intelligence;
* legal and constitutional expertise;
* negotiation capacity;
* and a disciplined communication strategy.

The presidency is not won by discovering a candidate six months before an election.

The presidency is prepared for long before it is contested.

4. STEP ONE — CREATE THE STRATEGIC TABLE

Before choosing a candidate, create the table.

Bring together political interests that have historically competed against one another but share a common strategic concern about Nigeria’s future.

This must include credible representatives from:

* North-Central;
* North-West;
* North-East;
* South-West;
* South-East;
* South-South;
* minority communities;
* major ethnic nationalities;
* smaller ethnic groups;
* youth constituencies;
* women;
* professionals;
* business communities;
* faith communities;
* civil society;
* diaspora networks;
* and politically experienced individuals.

The table should not be another noisy political association.

It should function as a strategic council for political negotiation and national coalition-building.

Its first task should not be:

“Who is our candidate?”

Its first task should be:

“What does our coalition want from Nigeria between 2031 and 2040?”

5. STEP TWO — AGREE ON THE NON-NEGOTIABLES

Coalitions collapse when they are built only around personalities.

Therefore, establish principles before personalities.

For example:

1. National inclusion.

2. Constitutionalism.

3. Security and rule of law.

4. Economic opportunity.

5. Fair political representation.

6. Institutional reform.

7. Devolution and effective federalism where constitutionally appropriate.

8. Protection of citizens regardless of ethnicity or religion.

9. Merit and competence.

10. Peaceful democratic succession.

Once these principles are agreed, personalities become instruments rather than the foundation.

6. STEP THREE — STOP FIGHTING TOMORROW’S ALLIES

This is perhaps the most important lesson.

Politics is not a permanent courtroom.

The person who disagrees with you today may become your coalition partner tomorrow.

Therefore, disagreement must not automatically become hatred.

We must learn to distinguish between:

political competition and existential hostility.

You can disagree with somebody and still negotiate with them.

You can criticise a policy without permanently destroying a relationship.

You can compete in an election without declaring another Nigerian an enemy.

The greatest political mistake is burning bridges that you may desperately need when the river rises.

7. STEP FOUR — BUILD THE GRASSROOTS BEFORE THE ELECTION

A presidential ambition cannot live permanently on Facebook, WhatsApp and television.

Digital applause is not the same thing as votes.

We need structures in:

* wards;
* local governments;
* senatorial districts;
* federal constituencies;
* states;
* and geopolitical zones.

The structure should identify:

Who are our people?

Where are they?

What do they care about?

What are their economic concerns?

What are their security concerns?

What political relationships already exist?

Where are our weaknesses?

This requires data, research and disciplined organisation.

Not rumours.

Not assumptions.

Not social-media impressions.

8. STEP FIVE — BUILD A POLITICAL DATA MACHINE

Modern elections are increasingly data-driven.

By 2031, serious political organisations will need sophisticated knowledge of:

* voter registration;
* turnout patterns;
* demographic trends;
* historical voting behaviour;
* youth populations;
* urbanisation;
* polling-unit distribution;
* regional political preferences;
* economic grievances;
* candidate favourability;
* and emerging political movements.

The objective is not manipulation.

The objective is better political decision-making.

We should know where we are strong.

We should know where we are weak.

We should know where we need alliances.

And we should know where our assumptions are simply wrong.

9. STEP SIX — IDENTIFY THE NEXT GENERATION OF LEADERS

If the movement depends entirely on today’s politicians, it has already become yesterday’s movement.

We need to identify talented Nigerians in their 30s, 40s and 50s.

Governors.

Senators.

Members of the House of Representatives.

Commissioners.

Technocrats.

Entrepreneurs.

Academics.

Security professionals.

Civil society leaders.

Community organisers.

Young professionals.

Women leaders.

The candidate who eventually emerges in 2031 may not be the person receiving the loudest applause today.

Therefore:

Do not search only for popularity. Search for capacity.

10. STEP SEVEN — CREATE A CANDIDATE SCORECARD

The coalition should eventually evaluate potential presidential candidates objectively.

A serious scorecard could examine:

Character

Does the individual possess sufficient integrity and emotional stability?

Competence

Can the person actually govern a complex federation?

National acceptability

Can the candidate win outside his or her home region?

Coalition capacity

Can the person bring competing interests together?

Security credibility

Can the candidate articulate and implement a serious national-security strategy?

Economic competence

Can the candidate manage Nigeria’s fiscal and economic challenges?

Electoral strength

Does the candidate have a realistic pathway to 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of the states and the required constitutional threshold?

Communication

Can the candidate speak to ordinary Nigerians without sounding detached from their realities?

Generational relevance

Can the person connect with young Nigerians?

Political temperament

Can the candidate negotiate without creating unnecessary enemies?

This would immediately elevate the conversation above:

“My man is better than your man.”

11. STEP EIGHT — NEGOTIATE BEFORE THE PRIMARY

This is where many political movements fail.

They wait until everyone has declared himself or herself a candidate.

Then competition becomes warfare.

Instead, serious coalition-building should involve early negotiation.

Different blocs should ask:

What do you want?

What can you contribute?

What are you prepared to concede?

What are your red lines?

What guarantees do you require?

What would make you support another candidate?

That is politics.

Negotiation is not betrayal.

Negotiation is how coalitions are built.

12. STEP NINE — DEVELOP A “WINNING MAP”

Before choosing the candidate, build the electoral mathematics.

Nigeria does not elect a president by national popularity alone.

A successful strategy must understand the constitutional requirements and construct a realistic geographical coalition.

Therefore, the question should be:

Where can we win?

Then:

Where can we become competitive?

Then:

Which regions require alliances?

Then:

What combination of states creates the most viable pathway to victory?

This is where emotional politics must give way to arithmetic.

A presidential election is ultimately a mathematical contest conducted through human relationships.

13. STEP TEN — BUILD A COALITION, NOT AN ETHNIC FRONT

This is crucial.

If we respond to perceived ethnic political organisation by creating another ethnic bloc, we may simply reproduce the same problem from the opposite direction.

Nigeria is too complex for that.

The winning coalition of the future must be broader.

It should include different ethnicities, religions, regions and political traditions.

The message should therefore not be:

“Our people against their people.”

It should be:

“A coalition of Nigerians seeking a fairer, more inclusive and competent political future.”

That message travels further.

It attracts more people.

And it protects the movement from becoming trapped inside the very identity politics it seeks to overcome.

14. STEP ELEVEN — BUILD AN IDEOLOGY BEFORE BUILDING A CAMPAIGN

Every serious political movement needs an intellectual foundation.

What exactly do we believe?

What is our position on federalism?

What is our economic philosophy?

What should happen to state and local government autonomy?

How should Nigeria restructure its security architecture?

What should happen to education?

What is our position on agriculture?

How should Nigeria manage its debt?

How should we reform the civil service?

How do we create millions of productive jobs?

How should we deal with insecurity?

What should Nigeria’s foreign policy become?

What should happen to the energy sector?

How should we harness technology and artificial intelligence?

These questions require policy papers, not slogans.

The candidate must eventually stand on a philosophy—not merely a grievance.

15. STEP TWELVE — BUILD THE MEDIA ARCHITECTURE

We must stop waiting for other people to tell our story.

A serious political project requires:

* researchers;
* writers;
* policy analysts;
* economists;
* lawyers;
* statisticians;
* filmmakers;
* graphic designers;
* social-media strategists;
* public-speaking coaches;
* rapid-response teams;
* fact-checkers;
* and regional communication coordinators.

But the objective must not be propaganda.

It should be persuasion through credible information.

The movement must earn trust.

16. STEP THIRTEEN — BUILD FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

A movement that cannot finance itself eventually becomes somebody else’s political instrument.

Therefore, establish transparent and lawful fundraising structures.

Contributions should be documented.

Spending should be accountable.

Donors should not secretly own the movement.

And the organisation should never become dependent upon one wealthy individual.

A movement that belongs to one financier does not belong to the people.

17. STEP FOURTEEN — CREATE A YOUTH CONTRACT

Young Nigerians must not be treated merely as crowds for rallies.

They must be treated as partners in governance.

Give them:

* leadership positions;
* policy responsibilities;
* technology roles;
* research opportunities;
* campaign management positions;
* entrepreneurship programmes;
* political education;
* and a genuine pathway into government.

The youth question is no longer optional.

It is the future itself.

18. STEP FIFTEEN — BRING WOMEN INTO THE CENTRE

Women should not be mobilised only during elections.

They must participate in:

* policy development;
* fundraising;
* political negotiations;
* candidate selection;
* campaign management;
* community organisation;
* governance;
* and leadership.

Any movement that ignores half of the population is strategically incomplete.

19. STEP SIXTEEN — BUILD A NEGOTIATING CULTURE

This is where we must become fundamentally different.

Instead of asking:

“Who is more important?”

Ask:

“What does everyone bring to the table?”

One group may bring votes.

Another may bring funding.

Another may bring organisational capacity.

Another may bring intellectual capital.

Another may bring geographical reach.

Another may bring media influence.

Another may bring grassroots legitimacy.

Another may bring diplomatic relationships.

Politics is the art of combining these assets.

Nobody has to possess everything. A coalition succeeds because its members possess different things.

20. STEP SEVENTEEN — ESTABLISH A DISCIPLINE OF INTERNAL DISPUTE RESOLUTION

Every coalition will fight.

That is inevitable.

The question is whether disagreement destroys the coalition.

Create an internal mechanism for resolving disputes.

No public war until private negotiation has failed.

No social-media assassination of coalition members.

No leaking of confidential negotiations for cheap political advantage.

No permanent enemies.

No politics of humiliation.

Discipline is the invisible infrastructure of political power.

21. STEP EIGHTEEN — THINK BEYOND 2031

This is perhaps the greatest difference between a political campaign and a political movement.

A campaign asks:

“How do we win 2031?”

A movement asks:

“What kind of political structure will still exist in 2041?”

If we win in 2031 and collapse by 2033, we have not built a movement.

Therefore, the architecture should have a 10–15-year horizon.

2031 should be a milestone—not the destination.

22. WHAT MUST WE PUT IN PLACE TODAY?

TODAY

We need:

* unity;
* dialogue;
* research;
* political education;
* coalition mapping;
* grassroots organisation;
* credible leadership;
* policy development;
* data collection;
* and a culture of negotiation.

TOMORROW

We need:

* stronger political alliances;
* candidate assessment;
* regional negotiations;
* fundraising;
* grassroots expansion;
* media infrastructure;
* youth mobilisation;
* women’s leadership;
* and institutional partnerships.

2031

We need:

* one broadly acceptable candidate;
* one coherent message;
* one disciplined coalition;
* a credible national campaign;
* and the organisational capacity to convert support into votes.

AFTER 2031

We need:

* institutionalisation;
* leadership succession;
* performance accountability;
* political inclusion;
* and preparation for the next generation.

23. THE GREAT QUESTION: MUST WE ALWAYS END UP SPLINTERED?

Must we always arrive at the same destination?

A deck of cards scattered across a table?

One person negotiating here.

Another negotiating there.

Another seeking an appointment.

Another seeking a ticket.

Another fighting an old political enemy.

Another believing his ethnic group can win alone.

And then, when the decisive moment arrives, everyone discovers that somebody else has already negotiated the future.

Must it always end this way?

No.

But changing the outcome requires changing the behaviour that produces the outcome.

We cannot complain about political domination while refusing to learn political organisation.

We cannot demand inclusion while excluding potential allies.

We cannot demand unity while celebrating the destruction of people who disagree with us.

We cannot demand strategic patience while insisting that everything must happen immediately.

And we cannot expect tomorrow’s political victory from today’s political disorder.

24. THE MOST IMPORTANT LESSON

If other political constituencies can organise around long-term interests, negotiate across internal differences and patiently build political influence, there is nothing preventing other Nigerian constituencies from doing the same.

But there is one important distinction.

Our answer should not be ethnic imitation.

Our answer should be strategic adaptation.

Learn the discipline.

Learn the patience.

Learn the negotiation.

Learn the coalition-building.

Learn the long-term thinking.

But build something bigger:

a Nigerian political coalition capable of transcending ethnicity without pretending ethnicity does not exist.

That is the balance.

25. THE 2031 DOCTRINE

If we are serious, I propose five principles:

UNITY WITHOUT UNIFORMITY

We do not need to agree on everything.

We only need enough agreement to move together on what matters.

NEGOTIATION WITHOUT SURRENDER

Compromise does not mean abandoning our principles.

It means finding mutually beneficial arrangements.

AMBITION WITHOUT PERSONALITY CULT

The movement must be bigger than any individual.

IDENTITY WITHOUT EXCLUSION

People may retain their ethnic, religious and regional identities while participating in a larger national coalition.

POWER WITH RESPONSIBILITY

The objective of acquiring political power must ultimately be to use it responsibly.

26. THE FINAL STRATEGIC TEST

At every stage, we should ask five questions:

1. Does this bring us closer to 2031?

2. Does this increase our negotiating power?

3. Does this expand our coalition?

4. Does this improve our credibility?

5. Does this strengthen the institution beyond the individual?

If the answer to all five is yes, proceed.

If the answer is no, reconsider.

That should become our political compass.

CONCLUSION — WE CANNOT INHERIT A FUTURE WE REFUSE TO BUILD

My brother, the trophy will not come to us because we complained loudly enough.

It will come only if we build the team capable of winning it.

The future belongs neither automatically to the loudest nor permanently to the oldest political structure.

It belongs to those who organise.

Those who negotiate.

Those who understand numbers.

Those who build relationships.

Those who know when to speak and when to remain silent.

Those who understand that today’s opponent may be tomorrow’s ally.

Those who can think beyond one election cycle.

And those who understand that political power is not merely won at the ballot box; it is accumulated through years of organisation before citizens ever enter the polling booth.

Therefore, let us stop looking at one another as competitors for pieces of a shrinking political cake.

Let us begin asking whether we can collectively bake a much larger one.

Let us stop bringing the roof down over our own heads.

Let us stop mistaking internal quarrels for political courage.

Let us stop celebrating temporary victories that destroy long-term possibilities.

And let us begin building.

Quietly where quietness is strategic.

Loudly where courage is necessary.

Patiently where time is required.

Firmly where principles are at stake.

Generously where alliances must be built.

And intelligently where the mathematics of power demands it.

Because 2031 is not tomorrow.

2031 is being created today.

The question is not whether someone else is already negotiating.

The question is:

When they arrive at the negotiating table, will we have anything organised, credible and valuable enough to negotiate with?

That is the real challenge.

And that is where our work must begin.

The trophy is not won by those who desire it most.

It is won by those who build the strongest team, understand the field, master the mathematics, maintain discipline and remain united long enough to finish the game.

Let 2031 be the year we stop lamenting about the architecture of power—and begin constructing our own.

— Ibrahim BUNU