Prof. K A Familoni
kafagsl.com
Research Support: ChatGPT
24 June 2026
1.0 Introduction
The June 20, 2026 Ekiti State governorship election has produced one of the most decisive electoral outcomes in the recent political history of the state. Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was returned for a second term with an overwhelming majority of the valid votes cast. The declared result showed the APC candidate far ahead of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and all other parties.
When placed beside the 2022 Ekiti governorship election, the 2026 result reveals a number of important democratic and political trends. Voter-card collection improved dramatically. The number of actual votes cast rose only slightly. Rejected ballots reduced. But voter participation remained low. More importantly, the opposition vote collapsed sharply, while the APC vote expanded massively.
The declared figures therefore suggest not only a landslide victory for the incumbent governor, but also a broader drift of electoral strength away from the PDP and the fragmented opposition towards the APC. In practical political terms, Ekiti now appears to be moving towards a de facto one-party electoral landscape. This does not mean that Ekiti is legally a one-party state. Nigeria remains a multi-party democracy, and several parties contested the election. However, when one party wins almost all meaningful electoral ground and the opposition becomes statistically weak, the state begins to function as a one-party-dominant political environment.
2.0 The 2026 Election: Core Declared Figures
The declared figures for the 2026 governorship election show that Ekiti had 1,059,360 registered voters on the pre-election register. Out of this number, 1,028,929 voters collected their Permanent Voter Cards, giving a PVC collection rate of about 97.13 per cent. However, the final collation figure reported for registered voters was 988,251, which differs from the earlier pre-election figure. This discrepancy deserves clarification by INEC because it affects the exact turnout calculation.
The election recorded 384,940 accredited voters, 382,109 total votes cast, 375,777 valid votes and 6,332 rejected votes. The APC candidate, Governor Biodun Oyebanji, scored 319,224 votes. The PDP candidate scored 40,543 votes, while the ADC candidate scored 12,872 votes. All other parties together scored only 3,138 votes.
In percentage terms, the APC secured approximately 84.95 per cent of the valid votes. The PDP secured about 10.79 per cent, while the ADC secured about 3.43 per cent. All other parties combined secured less than one per cent of the valid votes.
This was not merely an electoral victory. It was a landslide. The APC did not only defeat the opposition; it overwhelmed it.
3.0 The 2022 Election as the Comparative Baseline
The 2022 Ekiti governorship election provides an important baseline for understanding the 2026 result. In 2022, the APC also won the election, but the contest was much more competitive. The APC candidate scored 187,057 votes, representing about 53.16 per cent of the valid votes. The Social Democratic Party came second with 82,211 votes, representing about 23.36 per cent. The PDP came third with 67,457 votes, representing about 19.17 per cent. Other parties combined scored 15,140 votes, or about 4.30 per cent.
In 2022, therefore, the APC was the leading party, but it did not monopolise the electoral space. The combined opposition vote was 164,808, representing about 46.84 per cent of the valid votes. That was still a politically meaningful opposition presence.
By 2026, however, that balance had disappeared. The APC vote rose from 187,057 in 2022 to 319,224 in 2026. This represents an increase of 132,167 votes, or about 70.66 per cent growth over the party’s 2022 performance. At the same time, the APC’s share of valid votes rose from 53.16 per cent to 84.95 per cent, an increase of about 31.79 percentage points.
The opposition moved in the opposite direction. The PDP fell from 67,457 votes in 2022 to 40,543 votes in 2026, a decline of 26,914 votes. Its share of the valid votes dropped from 19.17 per cent to 10.79 per cent. Even more significantly, the total non-APC vote fell from 164,808 in 2022 to 56,553 in 2026. This means that the collective opposition vote declined by 108,255 votes.
This is the most politically revealing part of the data. Ekiti did not simply re-elect an incumbent. The state appears to have moved dramatically from competitive ruling-party advantage to overwhelming ruling-party dominance.
4.0 Voter Turnout and Participation: 2022 Compared with 2026
The turnout comparison shows continuity rather than transformation. In 2022, Ekiti had 988,923 registered voters, out of which 749,065 had collected their PVCs. Total votes cast were 360,753, while valid votes were 351,865. Rejected votes were 8,888.
In 2026, the pre-election registered voter figure rose to 1,059,360, while PVC collection rose to 1,028,929. Total votes cast rose to 382,109, and valid votes rose to 375,777. Rejected votes fell to 6,332.
On the surface, this suggests improvement. More people collected PVCs. More votes were cast. More valid votes were recorded. Fewer votes were rejected. However, the deeper picture is more troubling.
Using the pre-election register of 1,059,360 voters, the 2026 turnout was about 36.07 per cent. In 2022, turnout was about 36.48 per cent. This means that, by this measure, turnout slightly declined. If the final collation registered-voter figure of 988,251 is used for 2026, turnout rises to about 38.67 per cent. Even under this more favourable calculation, fewer than four in every ten eligible voters participated.
The conclusion is therefore clear: voter participation remained low. Ekiti’s 2026 election did not solve the problem of voter apathy. It only produced a more decisive result among those who turned out to vote.
5.0 The Contradiction Between PVC Collection and Actual Voting
One of the most important findings from the data is the contradiction between PVC collection and actual voting.
In 2022, 749,065 voters collected their PVCs out of 988,923 registered voters. This gave a PVC collection rate of about 75.75 per cent. Out of those who collected PVCs, 360,753 actually voted. This means that about 48.16 per cent of PVC holders voted.
In 2026, PVC collection rose dramatically to 1,028,929 out of 1,059,360 registered voters. This gave a PVC collection rate of about 97.13 per cent. Yet only 382,109 votes were cast. This means that only about 37.14 per cent of PVC holders actually voted.
This is a serious democratic warning. Ekiti citizens collected their voter cards in large numbers, but many of them stayed away from the polling units. The problem in 2026 was therefore not primarily lack of PVCs. It was voter abstention.
The state moved from a situation in which nearly half of PVC holders voted in 2022 to one in which a little over one-third of PVC holders voted in 2026. This suggests that voter apathy, political resignation, weak electoral competitiveness, economic hardship, distrust, insecurity concerns, or the perception of a predetermined outcome may have discouraged many voters from participating.
6.0 Improvement in Ballot Validity
One positive aspect of the 2026 election is the reduction in rejected votes. In 2022, rejected votes were 8,888, representing about 2.46 per cent of total votes cast. In 2026, rejected votes fell to 6,332, representing about 1.66 per cent of total votes cast.
This suggests improvement in ballot handling, voter understanding, polling-unit management, or electoral administration. It may also indicate that voters who participated were more familiar with the voting process.
However, this improvement must be placed in context. A lower rejection rate is good for electoral integrity, but it does not address the larger problem of low participation. It is not enough for votes to be properly cast and counted if most eligible voters do not participate in the election.
7.0 The APC Surge and the Collapse of Competitive Opposition
The APC’s electoral growth between 2022 and 2026 is extraordinary. The party gained 132,167 additional votes and increased its valid-vote share from 53.16 per cent to 84.95 per cent. This is a movement from dominance to near-total electoral command.
The PDP’s decline is equally significant. It lost 26,914 votes and fell from 19.17 per cent of valid votes in 2022 to 10.79 per cent in 2026. The wider opposition space suffered an even greater collapse. In 2022, all non-APC parties together scored 164,808 votes. In 2026, all non-APC parties together scored only 56,553 votes.
This means that the non-APC vote declined by more than 108,000 votes. It also means that APC’s vote in 2026 was about 5.6 times the votes of all other parties combined. The PDP, which should ordinarily be the main opposition party, scored only about one-eighth of the APC’s vote.
These figures show that the 2026 election was not competitive in the traditional sense. It was an electoral affirmation of the incumbent and a collapse of the opposition as a serious statewide force.
8.0 The Drift from PDP and Opposition Politics to APC
It is necessary to be careful in describing voter movement. Since ballots are secret, no one can say with mathematical certainty that a particular voter who voted PDP in 2022 voted APC in 2026. However, aggregate electoral data can reveal political movement.
The 2026 figures strongly suggest a drift of electoral support away from the PDP and the wider opposition towards the APC. The APC gained 132,167 votes. The PDP lost 26,914 votes. The total opposition vote declined by 108,255 votes. The 2022 opposition space, which had been shared mainly by the SDP and PDP, virtually disappeared by 2026.
The likely explanation is a combination of factors. Some former PDP or opposition voters may have moved to APC. Some opposition voters may have stayed away because they saw the election as predictable. Some local political leaders and mobilisation structures may have shifted to the ruling party. Some voters may have preferred continuity under Governor Oyebanji. Others may have lacked confidence in the ability of the opposition to win or govern.
Whatever the exact combination of causes, the declared results point to one broad conclusion: the opposition lost ground, while APC consolidated overwhelming control.
9.0 Ekiti as a De Facto One-Party-Dominant State
The expression “one-party state” must be used with caution. Ekiti is not legally a one-party state. Other political parties exist, nominate candidates and contest elections. However, the 2026 governorship election suggests that Ekiti has become a de facto one-party-dominant state in electoral practice.
A healthy multi-party democracy requires more than the formal existence of political parties. It requires meaningful competition. It requires voters to believe that alternatives are real. It requires opposition parties to have organisational capacity, credibility, policy seriousness and electoral reach.
In the 2026 Ekiti election, the APC won almost 85 per cent of valid votes. The PDP won less than 11 per cent. The ADC won less than 4 per cent. All other parties combined won less than 1 per cent. This is not a normal competitive party system. It is a system in which one party has become overwhelmingly dominant and the opposition has become electorally marginal.
This may create short-term political stability for the ruling party, but it also carries democratic risks. Where opposition parties are too weak, accountability may suffer. Governments perform better when they know that credible alternatives exist. If the ruling party becomes too comfortable, complacency can grow.
10.0 The Democratic Meaning of Low Turnout
The 2026 election gave Governor Oyebanji a very strong mandate among those who voted. But democracy is not only about winning. It is also about participation.
If fewer than four in every ten eligible voters participate, the election still produces a legal winner, but the democratic culture remains weak. Low turnout raises questions about public trust, political enthusiasm, competitiveness, security, economic pressure and the perceived value of voting.
Voter apathy is dangerous because it creates a cycle. When voters stay away, organised party structures dominate. When organised party structures dominate, ordinary citizens may feel even less powerful. When citizens feel powerless, they stay away again. Over time, democracy becomes an exercise controlled by party machines rather than a civic process driven by citizens.
Ekiti’s 2026 election therefore presents a double lesson. The APC’s victory was decisive. But the low turnout shows that the democratic process still needs urgent renewal.
11.0 Recommendations for Reducing Voter Apathy and Strengthening Participation
11.1 Introduce Electronic Voting in a Gradual and Credible Manner
Nigeria should begin a carefully planned transition towards electronic voting. The current system, which still depends heavily on physical movement to polling units, manual voting and lengthy collation processes, discourages participation in many ways. Voters are often concerned about insecurity, delays, intimidation, logistical frustration, and the possibility that their votes may not count.
Electronic voting can reduce some of these problems if properly designed. It can shorten voting time, reduce ballot-paper errors, improve accessibility, accelerate collation and reduce some forms of manipulation. However, electronic voting must not be introduced carelessly. It must be supported by strong cybersecurity safeguards, verifiable audit trails, transparent procurement, independent testing, voter education and legal reform.
Nigeria can begin with pilot electronic voting in selected local elections, then expand gradually to state and national elections after public confidence has been built. The goal should not be technology for its own sake. The goal should be credible, secure, accessible and trusted voting.
11.2 Consider Remote or Early Voting Options
Many citizens fail to vote because election day is inconvenient, insecure or economically costly. Nigeria should consider limited forms of early voting, absentee voting and secure remote voting for specific categories of voters. These may include security personnel, election workers, students, persons with disabilities, elderly voters, people on essential duty and Nigerians who are away from their registered polling areas for legitimate reasons.
A democracy should not make voting unnecessarily difficult. If banks, schools, public services and private institutions can use secure digital verification systems, the electoral system should also begin to explore carefully controlled ways of making participation easier.
11.3 Improve the Security Environment Around Elections
Voter apathy cannot be separated from insecurity. When citizens fear violence, intimidation, harassment, thuggery or post-election disorder, many will prefer to stay at home. A less insecure sociopolitical environment is therefore essential for stronger voter participation.
Security agencies must protect voters without militarising the election. Their role should be preventive, professional and impartial. Political thugs must be arrested before they disrupt elections, not merely condemned after the damage has been done. Vote-buying gangs, intimidation networks and violent party agents should face real prosecution.
Voters will participate more when they believe they can go to polling units safely, vote freely and return home without fear.
11.4 Rebuild Trust in the Electoral Process
A major cause of voter apathy is distrust. Many citizens do not vote because they believe the outcome is already decided or that their votes will not count. INEC, political parties, security agencies and the judiciary must therefore work to rebuild public confidence.
Election results must be transmitted and published transparently. Polling-unit results should be easily accessible. Collation should be open and verifiable. Disputes should be resolved speedily and fairly. Electoral offenders should be prosecuted. When people see that manipulation has consequences, confidence will grow.
Trust is the foundation of turnout. Where citizens trust the process, they are more likely to participate.
11.5 Make Opposition Politics More Serious and Credible
Voter apathy is not caused only by INEC or government. Weak opposition parties also discourage participation. When voters believe that opposition parties are disorganised, unserious, divided or incapable of winning, they may stay away from the polls.
The PDP and other opposition parties in Ekiti must therefore rebuild from the ward level. They need credible candidates, issue-based campaigns, internal democracy, grassroots structures, strong polling-unit agents, youth engagement and policy alternatives. It is not enough to appear during election season and expect voters to respond.
A democracy needs a ruling party that performs and an opposition that competes seriously. Without credible alternatives, elections become predictable and citizens lose interest.
11.6 Strengthen Civic and Voter Education
Many voters collect PVCs but do not vote because they do not fully understand the power of participation. Civic education should not be limited to election week. It should be continuous.
INEC, civil society groups, schools, religious institutions, traditional rulers, community associations and the media should educate citizens on why voting matters. Voters should be taught that staying away does not punish politicians; it only allows a smaller group of voters to decide for everyone.
Civic education should also target young people, first-time voters, women, rural communities and persons with disabilities. Democracy must be made meaningful in everyday language, not merely in legal or technical terms.
11.7 Reduce Vote Buying and Electoral Inducement
Vote buying weakens voter confidence and deepens apathy. When citizens believe that elections are determined by money, many honest voters withdraw from the process. Those who participate may see voting as a transaction rather than a civic duty.
The fight against vote buying must be stronger and more practical. Security agencies should monitor suspicious cash movement before elections. Party agents involved in inducement should be arrested. Candidates who benefit from systematic vote buying should face serious legal consequences. Electoral law must punish not only the voter who sells a vote but also the political structure that buys it.
Democracy cannot thrive where poverty is exploited at the polling unit.
11.8 Make Governance Performance a Continuous Civic Conversation
Voters are more likely to participate when they see a clear connection between elections and governance. Political leaders must be assessed continuously on roads, schools, health care, jobs, security, agriculture, infrastructure, transparency and public service delivery.
Civil society and the media should publish simple scorecards before elections. These scorecards should explain what the government promised, what it delivered, what it failed to deliver and what opposition parties are proposing. When elections are connected to real-life outcomes, citizens are more likely to see voting as important.
11.9 Address Economic Barriers to Participation
Economic hardship can reduce voter turnout. For some citizens, going to vote means losing a day’s income, paying for transport or exposing themselves to avoidable stress. Election planning should therefore reduce the economic burden of participation.
Polling units should be accessible. Transportation challenges should be considered. Election-day logistics should be efficient. Long queues, late arrival of materials and poor crowd management discourage participation. The easier the process, the more likely citizens are to vote.
11.10 Improve Internal Democracy Within Political Parties
Many voters lose interest when candidates emerge through imposition, elite bargaining or manipulated primaries. Internal democracy within parties is therefore essential to public confidence.
Parties must allow credible primaries, fair competition and transparent candidate selection. When voters believe candidates were imposed by godfathers, they may disengage. But when candidates emerge through credible processes, supporters are more likely to mobilise and participate.
12.0 Conclusion
The 2022 and 2026 Ekiti governorship elections reveal two simultaneous realities. On one hand, the APC has grown into an overwhelmingly dominant electoral force in the state. On the other hand, voter participation remains weak, despite the impressive rise in PVC collection.
In 2022, the APC won with 187,057 votes and 53.16 per cent of the valid votes. The opposition was still substantial, with the SDP and PDP together polling 149,668 votes. In 2026, APC rose to 319,224 votes and 84.95 per cent of valid votes, while PDP fell to 40,543 votes and ADC managed only 12,872 votes. All opposition parties combined scored only 56,553 votes.
The declared figures therefore suggest a major drift from PDP and the broader opposition space towards APC, as well as possible abstention by opposition-leaning voters. Ekiti has not legally become a one-party state, but it has virtually become a one-party-dominant electoral environment.
For Governor Oyebanji and the APC, the result is a powerful endorsement from participating voters. For the PDP and other opposition parties, it is a warning of serious decline. For Ekiti democracy, the lesson is deeper: landslide victory without broad participation should not be treated as democratic perfection.
The urgent task now is to make voting easier, safer, more credible and more meaningful. Electronic voting, improved security, credible opposition, civic education, anti-vote-buying enforcement and stronger public trust are essential. Ekiti’s democracy will be stronger not merely when one party wins decisively, but when more citizens believe that participation matters and that every vote truly counts.
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