By Ibrahim Bunu
Email: ibrahimbunu@gmail.com
Introduction: What Is Really Happening?
Publicly, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is presenting the primaries as democratic, peaceful, and coordinated.
Privately, however, many state chapters are entering the primaries under severe internal stress.
The major drivers of instability include:
failed consensus arrangements,
screening controversies,
zoning disputes,
fears of governor-backed imposition,
resentment from excluded aspirants,
elite factional wars,
and widening distrust between grassroots members and state party structures.
The crisis is particularly visible in:
Southern Kaduna,
Southern Gombe,
and Plateau State.
Tomorrow’s primaries are therefore not just routine internal elections.
They are effectively:
factional loyalty tests,
power structure negotiations,
and early indicators of whether APC can remain internally united heading toward 2027.
SECTION ONE:
SOUTHERN KADUNA — THE SILENT BATTLEFIELD
Southern Kaduna remains one of the most politically sensitive zones in Northern Nigeria.
The area combines:
minority identity politics,
Christian political consolidation,
historical grievance politics,
elite fragmentation,
and growing youth political assertiveness.
The APC in Southern Kaduna is currently facing multiple hidden tensions.
Key Reality #1:
The El-Rufai Shadow Still Exists
Even though Nasir El-Rufai is no longer governor, his political legacy still deeply affects APC internal calculations in Kaduna.
Many Southern Kaduna actors still associate parts of the APC’s historical political structure with:
marginalization fears,
security grievances,
and distrust accumulated during previous administrations.
This means every APC primary in Southern Kaduna is psychologically larger than ordinary delegate contests.
Many aspirants are quietly presenting themselves as:
“corrective APC figures” rather than merely party loyalists.
That distinction matters.
Key Reality #2:
Governor Uba Sani Is Trying To Stabilise APC Internally
Uba Sani is adopting a softer political management style than the previous administration.
However, reports of candidate imposition fears are already surfacing. (Daily Post)
Several aspirants are becoming increasingly suspicious that:
state-backed preferred candidates,
consensus pressure,
And elite endorsements may override competitive internal democracy.
This creates danger.
Because Southern Kaduna politicians are highly sensitive to perceived exclusion politics.
Major Political Mood In Southern Kaduna
The APC grassroots mood in Southern Kaduna can currently be described as:
cautious,
distrustful,
highly observant,
but not yet openly rebellious.
Many party stakeholders are waiting to see:
who gets cleared,
who gets edged out,
and whether direct primaries will genuinely remain competitive.
If tomorrow’s process is seen as manipulated, resentment may not explode immediately —but it could silently weaken APC structures before the general election.
That is the real danger.
Key Figures & Aspirants Being Watched
Sunday Marshall Katung
Katung remains one of the strongest political figures from Southern Kaduna. He has publicly appealed for peaceful, issue-based politics ahead of the APC primaries. (Punch Newspapers)
However, beneath the calm messaging is a wider regional struggle over:
representation,
party ownership,
and who controls Southern Kaduna’s future political direction.
Yerima Shettima
Shettima has openly warned against candidate imposition in Kaduna APC politics. (Daily Trust)
This is important because such warnings usually indicate:
unresolved internal negotiations,
distrust of state party machinery,
and fears that primaries may already be partially predetermined.
Red-Team Forecast For Southern Kaduna
Most Likely Scenario
Primaries are held publicly,
But bitterness deepens quietly underneath.
Medium Risk
aggrieved aspirants remain in the APC but later sabotage the mobilization.
High Risk
defections emerge after disputed outcomes,
especially among youth blocs and local power brokers.
Strategic Truth
The biggest APC threat in Southern Kaduna is not opposition strength.
It is internal emotional disengagement.
SECTION TWO:
SOUTHERN GOMBE — APC’S MOST DANGEROUS INTERNAL CRISIS ZONE RIGHT NOW
Southern Gombe is currently one of the clearest examples of APC internal fragmentation nationwide.
The core crisis is simple:
The party leadership attempted consensus arrangements.
Multiple aspirants rejected them.
Now, APC has been forced back toward direct primaries amid escalating internal resistance. (Channels Television)
What Is Really Driving The Crisis?
Three major power struggles are happening simultaneously:
1. Governor Inuwa Yahaya vs Legacy Power Blocs
Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya is attempting to consolidate succession influence inside the APC.
But powerful actors resisted.
These include:
Isa Ali Pantami
Danjuma Goje
Saidu Alkali
Reports suggest all expressed reservations about the consensus model. (Premium Times Nigeria)
This is not an ordinary disagreement.
It is elite power resistance.
2. Tangale Representation Anxiety
In Balanga-Billiri Federal Constituency, major tensions emerged after aspirants from Billiri rejected the consensus arrangement. (Channels Television)
The “Five Sons of Tangale” bloc publicly backed:
Alfred John Attajiri
against the consensus endorsement of:
Ali Isa
Other figures involved include:
Víctor Mela Danzaria
Rambi Ibrahim Ayala
Ahmed Isa Nayire
Tony Jonah Nakale
This is not just about one House of Representatives seat.
It reflects a deeper southern Gombe grievance around:
political inclusion,
zoning fairness,
and elite domination.
Key Truth:
Southern Gombe Is Entering The Primaries Emotionally Angry
That anger is real.
Even though Governor Yahaya has now shifted toward direct primaries, many aspirants believe:
The original consensus structure revealed hidden preferred candidates,
and that the political playing field may still not be fully neutral.
That distrust remains active.
Most Important Political Danger In Gombe
The biggest APC threat in Gombe is not PDP.
It is a factional fracture after the primaries.
Because once:
Pantami loyalists,
Goje loyalists,
Yahaya loyalists,
And the southern blocs fully polarize, party cohesion weakens significantly.
This is already visible. (The Nation Newspaper)
Red-Team Forecast For Southern Gombe
Most Likely Scenario
Direct primaries happen,
But losers reject the moral legitimacy of outcomes.
Medium Risk
legal challenges emerge,
especially around screening and delegating authenticity.
High Risk
APC enters 2027 fractured internally,
Weakening voter mobilization.
Strategic Truth
Southern Gombe currently appears to be one of APC’s most unstable internal political theatres.
SECTION THREE:
PLATEAU STATE — THE QUIET RECONFIGURATION
Plateau politics is more complex than headlines currently suggest.
Unlike Gombe, where tensions are loud, Plateau’s tensions are quieter and more strategic.
Key Political Reality:
APC Is Still Recovering Structurally
The APC in Plateau still carries:
post-election trauma,
factional distrust,
and unresolved leadership positioning after losing power.
Some politicians now believe the political space within the APC has become too narrow or too elite-controlled. (ThisDayLive)
That statement is important.
Because when aspirants begin describing a party as “constricted,” it usually means:
Access to internal power is becoming centralized,
And fears about future ticket allocation are rising.
Emerging Figures & Movements
Sunday Garba Biggs
Biggs’ exit from APC is politically symbolic. (ThisDayLive)
It reflects wider frustrations among certain Plateau political actors who feel:
old structures dominate the party,
and political mobility is shrinking.
Ziphion Chrysanthus
Chrysanthus is among emerging aspirants attempting to reposition APC grassroots conversations around development and representation. (The Nation Newspaper)
However, Plateau APC still appears organisationally cautious rather than fully energized.
The Silent Problem In Plateau APC
The real issue is this:
APC has not fully rebuilt emotional momentum after losing state power.
That matters.
Because political parties do not survive on structures alone.
They survive on:
belief,
mobilization energy,
and perceived future viability.
Right now, Plateau APC still appears to be rebuilding confidence rather than projecting dominance.
Red-Team Forecast For Plateau
Most Likely Scenario
APC primaries proceed relatively more calmly than Gombe,
But underneath remains quiet fragmentation.
Medium Risk
weak post-primary mobilization from excluded blocs.
High Risk
silent defections,
or passive resistance during general elections.
Strategic Truth
Plateau APC’s biggest danger is not an open crisis.
It has low emotional cohesion.
FINAL STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
Across Southern Kaduna, Southern Gombe, and Plateau State, one pattern is becoming increasingly clear:
The APC is entering the 2027 cycle with significant internal stress beneath public unity messaging.
The major threats are:
consensus backlash,
fear of imposition,
zoning resentment,
screening controversies,
elite succession wars,
and weakening emotional loyalty inside the party.
Tomorrow’s primaries are therefore more important than they appear publicly.
They will determine:
who truly controls local party structures,
whether governors can impose authority,
and whether APC can maintain internal cohesion before the general elections.
The Deepest Truth
The biggest APC challenge in these regions may not actually be opposition parties.
It may be whether APC can survive its own internal contradictions after the primaries.
Because in Nigerian politics, a wounded insider is often more dangerous than an external opponent.
And that is the real political test beginning tomorrow.
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