By Banji Ayiloge
A regional rights activist
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When Bola Ahmed Tinubu started his quest for the presidency in 2023, I remarked—half in jest, half in sober reflection—that he must be crazy to want the job. My concern wasn’t about his intelligence or political experience. It was that Nigeria’s urgent needs cannot be met by any president seeking a second term. The reforms necessary are too fundamental, too disruptive, and too likely to offend the entrenched interests that have thrived on the Nigerian state for decades.
I have known Tinubu long enough to understand his strengths. In fact, I ranked him higher than Oluyemi Osinbajo, whose brilliance is clear but whose political backbone is fragile at best. Osinbajo would have governed like a technocrat—competent, polished, but ultimately constrained. He would have focused on macroeconomic management while avoiding the deeper political restructuring that underpins Nigeria’s dysfunction.
I believed Tinubu had the political courage to confront the systemic rot. But instead of starting with political reform—the root of our national crisis—he made economic reform the focus of his first term. That misjudgment is why he now faces criticism from both the informed and the uninformed.
The Political Roots of Nigeria’s Economic Collapse
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Nigeria’s problem has never been just economic. It’s political. It’s constitutional. It’s structural. It’s the predictable result of a system designed to reward a tiny elite while impoverishing the majority. It’s also a system that concentrates power at the center, making the rest of the country subordinate.
Politics, as Harold Lasswell famously said, determines who gets what, when, and how. In Nigeria, the answer has always been the same: the less than 1% who control the machinery of the state—politicians, senior civil servants, and the security forces.
The economy isn’t failing by accident; it’s failing by design. The usual explanation is ethnic fault lines, but those lines are often blurred by the elite’s shared goal of maximizing their loot. Our political parties are not organized around ideology or a genuine commitment to improving people’s lives; they are simply platforms for blatant plunder.
Corruption isn’t occasional; it’s systemic. It’s not hidden; it’s brazen. It’s not limited to politicians; it runs through civil service, the military, and police—institutions that should protect the nation but often feed off it. The average Nigerian isn’t untouched by this decay. It’s becoming harder to find those who believe that hard work alone can lead to success without theft. Stealing has become, for many, a national pastime. As my friend says: everybody is implicated.
That’s why every attempt at economic reform fails under the weight of political reality. You can’t liberalize an economy based on rent-seeking. You can’t stabilize a currency in a system where political actors profit from arbitrage. You can’t build investor confidence when rules shift with every change of government. And you definitely can’t expect fiscal discipline from a structure that incentivizes waste, duplication, and federal dependency. Every four years, billions of naira are spent on fleets of cars for the President and his staff, heads of parastatals, and layers of civil servants from directors to permanent secretaries. At the end of each cycle, many of these vehicles quietly end up in private hands.
Nigeria’s political structure is the core problem. Until we confront it, every economic policy—no matter how well-meaning—will be like pouring water into a basket. The President’s allies have spoken about how the governors of Nigeria’s 36 states have failed to utilize their excess funds for citizens’ welfare. Nothing exposes our political failure more clearly. If the President is king at the federal level, many governors are little dictators in their domains, more interested in looting than caring for their people.
Suffering of the Masses: A Direct Result of Political Failure
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People are suffering—and they’re not comforted by the news that the World Bank finds our economic progress significant. The real measure of an economy should be the condition of the people, not the approval of the World Bank, which has often sided with Western donors rather than ordinary Nigerians. These consequences of political dysfunction are real:
* Food prices are unbearably high, pushing millions into hunger.
* Healthcare is almost nonexistent, with public hospitals reduced to clinics lacking drugs, equipment, and staff.
* Infrastructure has collapsed, from roads to schools to power.
* Portable water is a luxury, forcing communities to drink contaminated streams and boreholes.
* Security has worsened, with citizens caught between bandits, kidnappers, and a police force that often preys on them rather than protects.
These aren’t natural disasters—they’re predictable outcomes of a political system that rewards corruption and punishes competence.
The Dangerous Gap Created by Tinubu’s Failure to Drive Political Reform
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Tinubu’s economic reforms—removing subsidies, unifying exchange rates, expanding revenue—may be necessary but are incomplete. Worse, by not anchoring them in political restructuring, he has unintentionally created a dangerous vacuum.
The federal government now controls less money, while states and local governments receive unprecedented funds. In a reformed system, this could be a blessing. But in Nigeria’s current setup, it’s a curse.
State governors and local government chairpersons now have access to vast amounts of unaccountable funds.
Instead of development, we see:
* Large-scale embezzlement
* Ghost projects and inflated contracts
* Local governments that exist only on paper
* Governors acting like emperors, not public servants
The President’s failure to reform the political system has empowered the worst actors. Funds meant for schools, hospitals, roads, and water are stolen with impunity.
The suffering of ordinary Nigerians isn’t accidental; it’s the direct result of a political system that rewards theft and punishes service.
The Elite Capture of the Nigerian State
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Nigeria’s political class has mastered the art of surviving without governing. The state isn’t a platform for national progress but a marketplace for elite deals. Ministries aren’t engines of policy; they’re fiefdoms. Agencies aren’t instruments of service; they’re toll booths. The security forces aren’t protectors; they’re participants in disorder.
This makes reform incredibly difficult. Those benefiting from the current system are powerful, organized, and deeply committed to maintaining the status quo. Ordinary Nigerians are disorganized, exhausted, and increasingly disillusioned.
What Needs to Be Done
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Nigeria needs a fundamental political rebuild—not superficial changes, not committee reports, not constitutional tweaks that leave the core intact. A deliberate, courageous restructuring along these lines is essential:
**True Federalism**
Power must shift to the regions or states. Local issues need local solutions, not distant Abuja governance.
**Fiscal Autonomy**
States must control their resources and contribute to the federal government, not the other way around.
**A Leaner, More Effective Federal Government**
The federal government should shed responsibilities it cannot effectively manage and focus on defense, foreign policy, monetary issues, and national standards.
**A Merit-Based Civil Service**
Appointments should be based on merit, not patronage.
**A Security System Reflecting Nigeria’s Diversity**
Regional and state policing are necessary, not optional.
Without these reforms, Nigeria will stay caught in crisis, regardless of who occupies Aso Rock.
Tinubu’s Limited Window
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There’s still time for Tinubu to change direction, but that window is closing. If he continues to push only economic reforms without addressing the political foundations, his presidency will be remembered not for what he accomplished but for what he overlooked.
Nigeria needs more than an economic manager; it needs a political reformer—a leader willing to dismantle the system of elite capture and rebuild a nation where prosperity belongs to all, not just a privileged few.
Until then, the most damning evidence of a broken system will be the ongoing suffering of the people.
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