By Okoi Obono-Obla
Executive Summary
Delta State was the most impenetrable fortress of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from 1999 to 2025, producing four successive PDP Governors. That 26-year dominance ended on April 23, 2025, when Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, his predecessor Ifeanyi Okowa, the entire State Executive Council, all PDP National Assembly members, 22 Members of the State House of Assembly, and all 25 Local Government Chairmen and 500+ Councillors defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The defection did not happen in isolation. It was the final blow after the PDP had already fractured over the refusal of its 2023 presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, to respect the zoning convention in Section 7(3)(c) of its constitution – a crisis that led to the G5 rebellion and the loss of Delta in the 2023 presidential poll despite having a sitting Delta Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, on the ticket as Vice Presidential candidate.
I. THE BASELINE: WHAT HAPPENED IN 2023 IN DELTA
Presidential (INEC Official):
Labour Party – Peter Obi: 341,866 (55%) – Winner
PDP – Atiku/Okowa: 161,600 (26%)
APC – Tinubu: 90,183 (14%)
Labour won because of PDP’s internal split, APC’s internal war, anger over the Muslim-Muslim ticket, naira redesign crisis and high energy costs.
Senatorial (3 Seats) in 2023:
Delta North: PDP – Ned Nwoko
Delta Central: APC – Ede Dafinone
Delta South: APC – Joel-Onowakpo Thomas
Result: PDP lost 2 of 3 seats.
House of Representatives (10 Seats) in 2023:
PDP 8, APC 1 (Francis Waive – Ughelli North/South/Udu), Labour 1 (Benedict Etanabene – Okpe/Sapele/Uvwie). One Labour seat was later nullified by the Tribunal and awarded to PDP’s Ndudi Elumelu.
State House of Assembly (29 Seats) in 2023:
PDP 22, APC 7.
Governorship 2023:
PDP – Sheriff Oborevwori – 360,234 votes (55%) – Winner in 21 LGAs
APC – Ovie Omo-Agege – 240,229
Labour – Ken Pela – 48,047
II. THE NEW MAP: WHERE PARTIES STAND TODAY (MAY 2025)
After the mass defection:
Senate – 3/3 APC:
Delta North: APC – Ned Nwoko (defected Feb 2025)
Delta Central: APC – Ede Dafinone
Delta South: APC – Joel-Onowakpo Thomas
All three Senators are now APC, giving the party total control of federal patronage and NDDC lobbying.
House of Representatives – APC Majority:
On May 6, 2025, Speaker Tajudeen Abbas announced on the floor the defection of 6 PDP Reps: Victor Nwokolo (Ika), Julius Pondi (Burutu), Thomas Ereyitomi (Warri), Nicholas Mutu (Bomadi/Patani), Okodiko Jonathan (Isoko), Nnamdi Ezechi (Ndokwa/Ukwuani). With existing APC members, the APC now holds 8-9 of 10 seats.
State Assembly – 29/29 APC:
On May 6, 2025, Speaker Emomotimi Dennis Guwor led 22 PDP members to defect. His official declaration: “With this action, the Delta State House of Assembly is now composed entirely of members from the All Progressives Congress.” Delta now has a one-party legislature.
III. PROJECTION FOR 2027
The variables that shaped 2023 – naira redesign, APC factional war, Muslim-Muslim ticket protest, PDP G5 crisis – are gone. They have been replaced by one variable: incumbency at both federal and state levels under APC.
1. Presidential Election 2027 in Delta:
APC – Party to beat. Projected to win. It now has the Governor as chief patronage dispenser, all Senators and Assembly members as canvassers, and all LGA structures. The desire to belong to the centre to attract federal projects (Warri Port, East-West Road, coastal highway) favours Tinubu. The protest vote that gave Labour 55% in 2023 has lost its vehicle.
PDP – Distant second. Will struggle to get 20%. It has no structure, no funding base, and its national factionalization is worse in 2026 than in 2023. It will need to rebuild Ward and LGA executives from scratch.
Labour / ADC Coalition – Urban spoiler. Labour may retain 25-30% in Warri, Asaba, Sapele urban areas where Obidient structures exist, but without a Governor or LGA councillors to mobilize, it cannot win LGAs. The ADC, being a neophyte, poorly run coalition of defectors from other parties, has no structure in Delta’s riverine and Anioma areas.
2. Governorship 2027 in Delta:
APC – Overwhelming favourite. Governor Oborevwori, now running for a second term on APC platform, will have the full APC machinery plus federal backing. In Delta, second-term governors rarely lose when they control the Assembly and LGAs.
PDP – Weak challenger. May field a candidate from Delta Central or South to try to break the Ukwuani-Aniocha dominance, but will lack LGA chairmen to deliver votes. Risk of not even meeting 25% constitutional spread.
Labour / ADC – No path. No LGA chairman, no councillor, no Assembly member. Will be reduced to litigation.
3. National and State Assemblies 2027 in Delta:
Senate: Projected 3-0 for APC. Delta North may be competitive if Ned Nwoko faces a strong Anioma challenger from PDP, but incumbency and federal backing give APC edge.
House of Representatives: Projected 9-10 seats for APC, 0-1 for PDP/Labour. The 10 constituencies are now garrisoned by former PDP men now in APC. The Warri, Bomadi, Burutu riverine seats are especially locked due to Tompolo and traditional institutions aligning with federal centre.
State Assembly: Projected 27-29 seats for APC. One-party dominance means primaries, not general elections, will determine winners. The PDP may pick 1-2 seats in strong urban wards (Oshimili South, Warri South-West) only if Labour splits APC votes.
Conclusion:
Delta has moved from PDP hegemony (1999-2023) through a brief Labour-led protest interregnum in the 2023 presidential poll, to APC hegemony (2025- ). Unless there is a national economic shock or a new split within the Delta APC between old APC (Omo-Agege bloc) and new APC (Oborevwori/Ibori/Okowa bloc), the APC is positioned to sweep the presidential, governorship, and legislative polls in Delta in 2027. The PDP’s task is existential – to rebuild a party – while Labour and ADC remain, for now, neophyte and inexperienced platforms without grassroots structures to convert popularity into seats.
