By Chief Okoi Obono-Obla
Traditionally, Akwa Ibom State has been a staunch support base of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) before its fortunes dwindled due to the debilitating crisis that engulfed the party.
In 2023, the PDP made an almost clean sweep of Akwa Ibom State. It won the governorship with Pastor Umo Eno, two of the three senatorial seats and eight of the ten House of Representatives seats, as well as a majority in the State House of Assembly, even though Peter Obi of the Labour Party won the presidential election in the state. That presidential outcome was shaped by several variables, including the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, the controversy over the redesign of the naira and the high cost of fuel and living.
Those variables that shaped the 2023 voting pattern have largely changed.
Governor Umo Eno has performed fairly well, but his defection to the APC on 6 June 2025, with the entire PDP structure built since 1999 that had delivered successive victories to the PDP, has fundamentally altered the political equation. All members of the State House of Assembly, the National Assembly members from the state and the local government council executives followed him, and this has greatly strengthened the APC for the first time in the state’s history.
Traditionally, the people of Cross River and Akwa Ibom States prefer to align with the party in control at the federal level.
Also, the President of the Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio, is from Akwa Ibom State. He is seen as a powerful figure in President Bola Tinubu’s government and has influenced several federal projects and appointments for the state. He played a pivotal role in facilitating the appointment of Ms. Usoro Offiong Akpabio as the pioneer Managing Director of the South-South Development Commission (SSDC) and the choice of Uyo as its operational headquarters. This was confirmed when President Tinubu appointed her on 8 May 2025 and sited the Commission’s headquarters in Uyo. This has further enhanced the APC’s standing in the eyes of the people.
Other federal dividends, such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway which traverses the Eket axis of the state, have reinforced the perception of federal presence, a factor that was lacking in 2023.
The governorship candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Senator John James Akpan Udoedehe, has been a serial contestant in governorship elections in the state since 2007 but has never gained significant traction.
New Dynamics for 2027
With the solid structure of the APC now in Akwa Ibom, the strong support for the incumbent Governor, projects such as the Coastal Highway, and the influence of Senate President Godswill Akpabio — all factors that were lacking in 2023 — and given the dwindling fortunes of the PDP, I do not see Peter Obi beating Bola Tinubu in Akwa Ibom as he did in 2023.
According to the INEC final list published on 11 October 2026, Akwa Ibom has 20 governorship candidates, including Governor Umo Eno (APC), Senator Udoedehe (ADC), and the PDP candidate. For the Senate, Godswill Akpabio (North-West), Aniekan Bassey (North-East) and Ekong Sampson (South) are all listed under APC. The presidential list has 18 candidates, including Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (ADC), Peter Obi (NDC), Seyi Makinde (APM) and Sandy Onor (PDP).
I see the 90,000-plus votes that Atiku Abubakar got in the 2023 presidential election (92,123) going largely to Tinubu because of the prevailing belief in the continuation of power shift to Southern Nigeria. Peter Obi may benefit only minimally from Atiku’s loss. In 2023, Obi won Akwa Ibom with 132,683 votes because PDP and APC split the traditional party vote. In 2027, with PDP collapsed and its entire structure now in APC, that split will not occur.
Projection
Consequently, the 2027 presidential result in Akwa Ibom is likely to be: APC (Tinubu) 40-45%, NDC (Obi) 30-35%, ADC (Atiku) 15-20%, others <5%. This is a reversal of 2023 where Obi led with 32%.
For governorship, APC (Umo Eno) is projected to win with 58-62%, ADC (Udoedehe) 25-28%, PDP under 8%. Senate: APC 3/3, House of Reps: APC 8-9 of 10, State Assembly: APC 23-25 of 26.
The INEC list of 11 October 2026 therefore confirms the end of the PDP era in Akwa Ibom. The 2027 election will be a referendum on Governor Eno’s performance and Senator Akpabio’s federal influence.
