by Mohammed Bello Doka
More than a decade ago, as a young student first navigating the labyrinth of philosophical thought, I encountered a metaphor in C.E.M. Joad’s Introduction to Philosophy that has haunted me ever since. Joad, one of the most respected philosophers of his generation, compared the search for philosophical truth to the efforts of blind men in a dark room searching for imaginary black cats. The absurdity was the point: no matter how hard they searched, they would never find what did not exist—and even if it did, they lacked the capacity to see it.
I never imagined that decades later, that very metaphor would become the most accurate description of governance in my own country.
Today, as we peer through the fog of economic indicators, corruption scandals, and policy failures, one question demands an answer: How can anyone, if not a blind man himself, expect to see meaningful development under this administration—or worse, after a re-election in 2027?
The Blind Leading the Blind
Let us begin with the searchers themselves. The metaphor requires blind men, and in this case, we have a presidency and cabinet so entangled in legal and ethical controversies that they have lost all moral clarity.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is currently fighting to keep records secret regarding a Chicago-based heroin trafficking investigation linked to President Tinubu from the early 1990s. In a motion filed on August 20, 2026, the FBI argued that releasing these records could expose law-enforcement methods and endanger individuals. Over $460,000 connected to Tinubu was forfeited to the U.S. government in a 1993 civil forfeiture. The FBI has been granted permission to submit records privately for a judge’s review—hidden from the Nigerian people who elected him.
Meanwhile, the certificate scandals have refused to dissipate. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has dragged President Tinubu before the Federal High Court in Abuja, seeking his disqualification from the 2027 presidential election over an allegedly forged National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) certificate. The plaintiffs are asking the court to determine whether Tinubu should be disqualified for presenting a forged certificate to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
These are not opposition smears. These are active legal battles playing out in courts of law, both in Nigeria and the United States. A president fighting to keep FBI records secret. A president whose educational credentials are the subject of disqualification proceedings. A president whose own party cannot convincingly explain why no primary or secondary school certificates appear on his nomination papers.
If these are the men searching for development, what hope do we have of them finding it?
The Black Cats That Do Not Exist
In Joad’s metaphor, the cats were imaginary. So too, it seems, are the administration’s development plans.
Consider the blueprint—or rather, the lack of one. Where is the industrial policy? Where is the job creation strategy? Where is the roadmap to lift 140 million Nigerians out of poverty? The answer is nowhere to be found because it does not exist. The administration has no meaningful developmental plan tailored for the people. What it has, instead, is a plan to remain in office permanently—because losing power means losing everything.
The poverty figures tell the story. According to PwC projections, Nigeria’s poverty rate is expected to hit 62 per cent in 2026, with approximately 141 million Nigerians living below the poverty line. Poverty has surged from 81 million in 2019 to a projected 141 million in 2026. Nearly 8 out of every 10 Nigerians are now poor, or one shock away from becoming poor.
The naira, once a source of national pride, has become a punchline. In April 2026, the currency traded at approximately N1,361 to the dollar in the official market and N1,403 in the parallel market. Compare this to the N460 it traded at before Tinubu took office. The naira has lost over 65 per cent of its value in just three years.
Inflation, which peaked at a staggering 34.8 per cent in December 2024, remains stubbornly high. In April 2026, headline inflation rose to 15.69 per cent, marking the second consecutive monthly increase. Food inflation spiked sharply to 16.06 per cent. Prices have not returned to pre-shock levels; Nigerians are simply paying more for everything, every single month.
Fuel prices have skyrocketed from N175 per litre before Tinubu to an average of N1,532.93 per litre in April 2026—a staggering 19 per cent increase in just one month.
And the debt? The Tinubu administration has added N72 trillion in fresh debt since May 29, 2023, pushing total indebtedness to N159.35 trillion as of early 2026. Borrowing has become the administration’s only economic policy.
The Dark Room of Corruption
A dark room is defined by what you cannot see. Under this administration, corruption has become so brazen that even the blind can smell it.
Fake government agencies operated openly within the Federal Secretariat. The Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council (PFIPC) ran for years, accessing public funds before anyone noticed. The National Brands Development and Made in Nigeria Special Project Office, the FCT Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA), and FIPA-PPP were also uncovered. Three permanent secretaries were suspended. Fake agencies, operating from government offices, stealing public money—and nobody knew until it was too late.
The National Assembly, not to be outdone, spent N110 billion unlawfully—N40 billion on 465 luxury SUVs and N70 billion in illegal “support allowances.” A Federal High Court declared this expenditure unlawful, holding that it violated Nigeria’s procurement laws and constituted a misuse of public resources. For ordinary Nigerians watching, it felt like a slap in the face. While citizens struggle to afford bread and transport, lawmakers drive around in brand-new SUVs paid for with public money.
Before Tinubu, corruption happened, but it was hidden. Now, it is happening in broad daylight—and nobody is going to jail. Nobody is returning the money. The system is broken, and Nigerians can see it with their own eyes.
The Fast Cats That Cannot Be Caught
Even if the cats were real—even if development were genuinely possible—blind men in a dark room could never catch them. Development moves fast. It requires vision, agility, and foresight. This administration has none.
Youth unemployment remains at crisis levels. The government changed the measurement standard, now counting anyone who works just one hour per week as “employed.” Under this new methodology, the unemployment rate dropped from 33.3 per cent to about 4 per cent. But on the ground, millions of young graduates sit at home with no real work.
Kidnapping has become a trillion-naira industry. Between May 2023 and April 2024, over 2.2 million people were kidnapped. Ransom payments are estimated at N2.3 trillion. School abductions under Tinubu have surpassed those recorded in Buhari’s entire eight-year tenure—nine mass abductions in just three years, with over 500 children and teachers taken.
A president who cannot secure schools, cannot stabilize the currency, cannot curb inflation, and cannot create jobs is not a president who can deliver development. He is a blind man stumbling in the dark.
The Logical Conclusion
Joad’s metaphor ends in futility. The blind men search, but they never find. They cannot find because the cats do not exist, and even if they did, the men lack the capacity to see them.
So it is with Nigeria under this administration. The searchers are compromised—a president fighting FBI records requests and certificate forgery allegations, a cabinet more interested in SUVs than salaries, a National Assembly more concerned with allowances than laws. The cats are imaginary—there is no developmental blueprint, no industrial policy, no job creation strategy. And the room is dark—poverty rising, naira collapsing, inflation soaring, debt ballooning, insecurity spreading.
How can anyone, if not a blind man himself, expect to see meaningful development if Tinubu is re-elected in 2027?
The answer is simple: they cannot. To believe otherwise is not just optimistic—it is delusional. It is to believe that blind men in a dark room will somehow find black cats that do not exist.
We are not blind. We can see the poverty. We can feel the inflation. We can count the abducted children. We can read the court filings. We can do the math.
The question is not whether Nigeria will develop under Tinubu. The question is whether we, the Nigerian people, will continue to pretend that blind men can see.
Development under Tinubu is like blind men in a dark room searching for imaginary black cats. And like the blind men in Joad’s parable, they will search forever—and find nothing.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via bellodoka82@gmail.com
