by Okoi Obono-Obla
Strategic Calculus and the Future of Nigerian Politics-
Surely, the author, Akinlayo OmozโOarhe, in his work titled The Political Calculus for Peter Obi: An Analysis of the 2027 Electoral Landscape, has spoken. I align with his logic, reasoning, and conclusion; therefore, I have nothing to subtract or add. Yet, the dialectical consequences of politicians who lack visionโthose unable to project into the future and correctly permuteโare evident in the trajectory of the ADC, some of its main drivers such as Peter Obi, etc.
The ADC presents itself as a national party, but the migration of Atiku Abubakarโs faction from the PDPโafter Nyesom Wikeโs group was disillusioned by Atikuโs refusal to honor the rotation principle and concede the presidential ticket to a Southern aspirant in 2023โhas reshaped its identity. What was once a national platform now cloaks a northern irredentist agenda. Recent biometric registration confirms this: the bulk of new members hail from the North East and North West, with modest numbers from the North Central, and negligible presence from the South West, South South, and South East. In such a landscape, Atiku Abubakar towers above other aspirants, buoyed by sheer northern numbers.
History offers a telling precedent. In 2008, when Buhariโs supporters foresaw his exclusion from the ANPP primaries, they acted decisively. They floated the Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), secured his nomination, and delivered 13 million votes. That strength became the bargaining chip for the 2013 merger with the ACN and ANPP, birthing the APC and paving the way for Buhariโs 2015 victory. This is how strategic politicians operateโnot by scrambling from pillar to post, nor by clinging to platforms built by others, but by projecting into the future and building structures that serve their vision.
Conclusion:
The lesson is clear. Political success in Nigeria is not won by opportunism but by foresight, structure, and the courage to shape platforms rather than merely inherit them. Those who fail to project into the future risk being trapped in the dialectics of shortโsighted politics.
