By Okoi Obono-Obla
In response to Sumner Sambo’s claims on Arise TV Morning Show, November 2, 2026
The recent analysis by Arise Television Political Editor, Sumner Sambo, that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is “strategically deploying resources to lock Northern votes” ahead of the 2027 election is politically naive, historically flawed, and constitutionally illiterate.
It fundamentally misunderstands what the North is, and what the Nigerian Constitution demands of anyone who wants to be President.
1. The North is not a monolith to be locked
Mr. Sambo speaks of the 19 Northern states as if they were a single constituency that can be warehoused by one man. Any student of Nigerian electoral history knows this is false.
Even General Muhammadu Buhari, who between 2003, 2007 and 2011 commanded a cult-like, talakawa-driven followership never seen in the Fourth Republic, could not lock down the North.
Buhari had 12 million votes that followed him from party to party without governors, without money, and without structure. Yet even he lost Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara and Kogi repeatedly. He only won the presidency when he broadened his appeal beyond his northern base and merged with the South West in 2015.
If Buhari could not lock down the North at the height of his popularity, how will Atiku Abubakar do so?
2. Atiku is not the archetype the Northern masses follow
Northern electoral history shows the masses are enamored by two types of leaders: Mallam Aminu Kano of NEPU/PRP and Muhammadu Buhari. What endeared them to the talakawas was not money, but modesty, discipline, asceticism and anti-establishment credibility. They were mai gaskiya — men of austere taste who lived among the people.
Atiku Abubakar is the opposite archetype. He is flamboyant, shows wealthy effects, and represents the political establishment the talakawa have historically rejected. In Hausa political culture, nuna arziki — the display of wealth — is a liability that puts off the common people.
Resources cannot buy what Buhari and Aminu Kano earned through decades of lived modesty.
3. ADC is not ANPP or CPC
Mr. Sambo compares Atiku’s current vehicle to parties that had deep grassroots roots. This is a false equivalence.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is not a Northern party per se. It was formed by a South Easterner, Chief Ralph Nwosu, and for years existed as an intellectual platform without polling-unit presence in the North. It has no history in the villages of Daura, Potiskum, Gusau or Funtua.
The defunct ANPP and CPC were different. They were organic Northern protest movements built around Buhari’s poster and from ward level up. ADC today is a coalition of elites seeking a shortcut to power. Elites do not vote in elections; the masses do.
4. The hype about insecurity and hunger will not hold
Furthermore, the hype about insecurity and hunger in the North, which Atiku Abubakar has weaponized as his campaign strategy to pull wool over the eyes of the Northern electorate, may after all evaporate as his trump card when push comes to shove on 15 January 2027.
Insecurity and economic hardship are national challenges that require national solutions, not campaign slogans. The Northern voter is more sophisticated than to be swayed by weaponized narratives alone. When the Federal Government’s ongoing security and economic reforms begin to yield results, this narrative will lose its potency.
5. The Constitution forbids a regional champion
Most importantly, the framers of the 1999 Constitution never contemplated a regional champion who will lock down the votes of his home region and use it to corner the presidency without the requisite national spread.
That is why Section 134 of the Constitution requires a winner to have not just the highest number of votes, but also not less than one-quarter of votes cast in at least two-thirds of the federation — 24 states. The intent is federal character, national spread, and consensus, not regional lockdown.
A strategy of locking down the North is therefore constitutionally futile. You cannot win Nigeria by holding one region hostage.
6. The reality of incumbency
Finally, there is no way, given the enormous powers of incumbency, that Atiku Abubakar can deny President Bola Ahmed Tinubu winning at least six or more states in the North on 15 January 2027.
President Tinubu has sitting APC governors in over a dozen Northern states, control of federal patronage, and an entrenched structure that has been in place since 2015. To suggest he will be shut out of the entire North is not analysis; it is wishful thinking.
The 2027 election will not be decided by who “locks down” the North. It will be decided by who achieves national spread, who appeals beyond his region, and who understands that Nigeria can only be governed by a national consensus builder, not a regional champion.
