by Ademola Rabiu
TGF Perspectives |
Abuja | Oct 2026. Issue 8
Since Thursday’s inauguration of the 344-member Tinubu campaign council in Osogbo, a view has gained ground that the absence of some of Osun APC’s leading figures was a show of party discipline and loyalty. I respect those who hold it, but I humbly disagree.
Tactical Discipline: Object, Engage, Position, but never Walk Away
In my view, the absence, especially of the party state executive, from the “rainbow coalition” inauguration is dangerously complacent. It is not a principled stand. It is a strategic retreat, arguably a conceited move, dressed up as discipline, and the party should not confuse the two.
If this were truly about tactical discipline, the party would have shown up, shaped the process from the inside, and ensured its structures were not sidelined. Instead, it chose the one move that guarantees irrelevance: staying home while others define the coalition. That is not discipline, but a lack thereof.
Discipline is the readiness to follow a decision once the leader has made it. The leader here is the President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and he has made his choice.
The party’s own National Secretary stood in that hall and urged unity. So the question is simple: who exactly was being disciplined? And who is being loyal? Those who stayed away did not defend the party line. They stood apart from the party’s national organ. Nobody can claim loyalty to a leader and skip the launch of that leader’s own campaign.
Loyalty to Akanbi ọmọ olódó idẹ is shown by presence and quality and selfless contributions, everywhere and anywhere his success and victory is being planned and implemented, not by distance.
Strategic Depth Means Being at the Table, Not Outside It
A party with strategic depth understands that a presidential campaign is not a party-primary. It is a coalition exercise, and coalitions are won and owned by those who engage, negotiate, and position themselves at the table. The party exco has asserted that the coalition is useful and necessary. It simply lacked the tactical discipline and strategic acumen to manage our participation without either capitulating or walking away.
Boycotting the inauguration did not punish Adeleke. It punished the party’s own mobilisation structures, which may end up having no formal role in a campaign that is naturally ours and that we should own.
Change Management by Tantrum Is Not Leadership
Then there are adaptability and change management issues. Always the Achilles’ heel of our political re-engineering in Oṣun State.
It is a fact and the truth, maybe arguably, that the political configuration in Osun has changed. An Accord governor is coordinating a Tinubu campaign, and the APC is no longer the sole or major vehicle for the president’s re-election in the state. A pragmatic party leadership will quickly adapt to that reality. It won’t dig in and pretend the old hierarchy still holds.
The APC’s response – disowning the process, alleging exclusion, and staying away – is the politics of denial. It is change management by tantrum.
The Cost is Clear: Our Structures will be left without a Formal Role
And let us be blunt about the cost. While the APC was absent, the coalition was inaugurated, the target of over 1.5 million votes was set, and the campaign structure moved on without the party’s input.
The party that claims to be the president’s party in Osun now finds itself outside the room where the president’s Osun campaign was built. That is not a victory for discipline. It is a self-inflicted wound, a strategic own goal.
None of this means the APC’s grievances were fabricated. Being notified via social media less than 24 hours, as alleged, before a presidential campaign inauguration is shabby treatment, and the party was right to say so. But the correct response to shabby treatment is not a boycott that cedes the field. It is to attend, object on the record, demand structural inclusion, and then use the platform to ensure the party’s grassroots are not weakened or erased.
Four “Issues” from the Empty Chairs
🟢 Strategic depth. In the August governorship election, Governor Adeleke polled 511,067 votes against 444,815 for Ambo, a gap of 66,252. Those APC votes are a serious bargaining asset. The coalition has promised the President more than 1.5 million votes, which is higher than the total of 1,005,800 votes cast in August. Hence, no camp gets there without the APC base. The party held a strong card but was not at the table to play it.
🟡 Tactical discipline. The complaint about protocol was fair, because the party said it learnt of the event through a social media post. But the same party also said it had no objection to the governor coordinating the campaign. No objection in the morning and empty seats in the evening is a mixed message. A disciplined party speaks with one voice.
Raise the grievance in the room, or through the national secretariat, and not through vacant chairs on camera.
🟢 Adaptability. The political map has changed. Osun voters returned the governor for a second term, and the President has chosen to work with him. Strong words used in the heat of the 2025 contest, including calling the governor a liability, belong to a fight that has ended. A campaign for the President needs a new language and a new playbook.
Those who cannot adjust will be adjusted.
🟡 Change Management. Our leaders owe the followers an explanation of how yesterday’s rival becomes today’s coordinator. When the top stays away, ward and polling unit leaders are left asking what next. A divided signal at the top becomes a divided vote at the bottom. There is a further point. The governor has said the coalition covers only the presidential election, so Accord and APC will still compete for legislative seats.
Those inside the room will shape the guardrails for that contest. Those outside will take what is left.
Credit Where it is Due
President Tinubu deserves credit for building a broad tent. A leader who thinks in terms of addition, and not subtraction, is a leader who knows how elections are won. The Renewed Hope administration also has real things to show, from student loans through NELFUND to road construction and economic reforms. These achievements deserve one united Osun APC to carry them to every ward, not a party that is present in Abuja and missing in Osogbo.
The Conciliatory Way Forward
But it is not too late. The coalition is explicitly limited to the presidential election. That gives the APC leadership a clear lane to re-engage supporters and loyalists without surrendering its identity.
Also, none of this is meant to humiliate anyone. HE Oyetola has served Osun and the President well. Ambo/Adereti carried a massive 400,000+ votes, and that deserves respect. Their concerns about consultation are reasonable and can be resolved.
Return, Demand Inclusion, Strengthen Your Base
The party should return to the table, not as a supplicant, but as a co-owner of the president’s re-election project. It should insist on a formal role in the campaign’s decision-making, nominate its representatives – genuine grassroots representatives- to the council, and use the coalition to strengthen – not substitute for – its own structures.
I therefore appeal to all sides to consider the following pragmatic recommendations:
- Osun APC leaders should take up their seats on the council and attend the next meeting.
- The APC State Executive Committee should write to the Governor and request a meeting. At that table, it should lay out its grievances plainly and say exactly how the party wants to be engaged in the campaign.
- To be respected and taken seriously, the demands must speak for the party members down to the units, and not for the usual party leaders. That means a fair place for Wards and Polling Unit leaders, youth and volunteers in the campaign structure at LG, ward and unit levels. It also means proper briefings, support for the logistics and welfare of those who will do the door-to-door work, and recognition for the foot soldiers who have kept the party alive in the hard seasons. A list of positions for the familiar names will be waved away. A list that carries the units will command attention.
- The national leadership should broker a quick reconciliation before the grievance hardens. We trust the Governor, as the President’s coordinator, will keep an open door.
The 2027 contest will not be won by those who sulk, and it will not be won by those who sideline. It will be won by those who sit down together. In Osun, the load is heavy, and the head is waiting. Every hand is needed.
As advice, Osun APC is badly in need of strategic depth, tactical discipline, and the humility to adapt. The door is open. The party should walk through it – before the coalition delivers the votes and we are left explaining why we were not in the room.
Party discipline is shown by making a flawed process work for your members, not by walking away and calling the absence a virtue.
✍🏾 Ademola Rabiu is a Chartered Engineer | Academic | Strategic Consultant. He writes for the TGF Perspective from Cape Town.
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