By Okoi Obono-Obla
Permutations for Osun State in 2027 – Presidential, National Assembly and State Assembly
The voting strength of Osun State is officially 2,339,233 registered voters, with 1,906,390 PVCs collected (81.5%) as declared by INEC ahead of the August 15, 2026 governorship election. The state has 30 LGAs, 332 wards and 3,763 polling units, with female voters in majority at 1,234,769 (52.79%).
This register is what Osun will carry into 2027, plus any new CVR.
WHERE WE ARE COMING FROM: 2023 PRESIDENTIAL
In 2023, Osun was won by the PDP:
Atiku Abubakar (PDP) – 354,366
Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC) – 343,945
Peter Obi (LP) – 23,283
Kwankwaso (NNPP) – 713
Atiku won 20 LGAs, Tinubu won 10 LGAs. Total cast was 756,744. That PDP victory was delivered by the Ademola Adeleke political machine.
That machine has now changed jersey.
WHERE WE ARE NOW: THE AUGUST 2026 GOVERNORSHIP THAT RESET OSUN
As announced by INEC on Sunday 16 August 2026 by Prof. Joshua Ogunwole:
Accord – Senator Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke: 511,067 votes – Winner in 19 LGAs
APC – Bola Oyebamiji: 444,815 votes – Winner in 11 LGAs
ADC – Najeem Salaam: 17,180 votes – Miserable third
Margin of victory: 66,252 votes.
LGA by LGA, Accord and APC fought a gruelling battle but together they amassed 955,882 votes of people who actually came out to vote in 2026. That figure alone is already 200,000 more than the entire presidential turnout in Osun in 2023.
ADC, the new party of Atiku Abubakar and whose National Secretary is Rauf Aregbesola (Governor 2008-2015), scored less than 15,000 in most LGAs and only crossed 5,000 in Ejigbo. Its national weakness is exposed by its inability to field candidates – only 232 out of 360 House of Representatives seats – and by the factional infighting between the David Mark faction and other factions, plus messy litigation.
PERMUTATIONS FOR 2027
1. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – OSUN DELIVERED FOR TINUBU
PDP nationally is working for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
PDP in Osun was beaten silly in 2026 and has no governorship candidate till 2030.
Atiku has left PDP for a rickety ADC.
Governor Adeleke, who amassed 511,067 votes, has now declared he will work for Tinubu and is the Campaign Coordinator for Tinubu in Osun.
APC which amassed 444,815 votes is naturally for Tinubu.
Therefore, the 2023 bloc of Atiku 354k + Tinubu 343k = 697k has been merged into one bloc of 955k+ active voters for Tinubu.
Even with Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary of ADC, he is now a political lightweight who cannot match the formidable grassroots support enjoyed by APC and Accord Party. His old Ijesha base (Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Atakunmosa, Oriade, Obokun) voted in 2026: Combined Accord+APC 28,000-36,000 vs ADC 200-600 per LGA.
Projection: If turnout returns to 2023 levels, Tinubu polls 700,000 – 800,000 in Osun. Atiku/ADC struggles to cross 50,000.
2. NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS – 3 SENATE, 9 HOUSE OF REPS
Osun has 3 Senatorial Districts and 9 Federal Constituencies.
With ADC fielding only 232 House candidates nationally, many Osun federal constituencies will have no ADC candidate at all. The real contest will be:
Accord vs APC understanding: Since Adeleke is in Accord and coordinating for Tinubu, there will be a sharing formula. Accord may take Osun West Senatorial (Ede, Iwo axis where Adeleke scored 35,427 in Ede North, 26,188 in Ede South, 27,085 in Iwo) and 4-5 Reps seats. APC takes Osun Central and Osun East (where APC won Boripe 19,963, Irewole 29,972, Olorunda 24,671) and the rest.
Result: Both parties working for Tinubu means whether Accord or APC wins the legislative seat, it is a pro-Tinubu vote in the National Assembly. PDP and ADC are eliminated.
Labour Party: After scoring only 23,283 in Osun in 2023, LP is dead in Osun in 2027.
3. STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
No governorship election till 2030. The only state-level election in 2027 is the 26-member Osun State House of Assembly.
The House will be shared between Accord and APC, both pro-Tinubu. Adeleke as sitting Governor on Accord platform will control the Assembly. With 511k vs 444k, Accord has slight upper hand to produce Speaker and majority, but both are in the Tinubu camp.
This means for the first time since 1999, Osun will have a Governor, 26 Assembly members, 9 Reps and 3 Senators who are all politically aligned to the President, even if they wear different party jerseys.
CONCLUSION: OSUN’S 2.34M VOTES ARE NO LONGER SWING
From being a state Atiku won by 10,421 votes in 2023, Osun in 2027 is now a safe State for Tinubu because the man who delivered Osun for Atiku in 2023 is now delivering it for Tinubu in 2027, with 511,067 confirmed votes plus APC’s 444,815.
ADC with 17,180 votes, torn by factional infighting and messy litigation, and led in Osun by a former Governor who is now a political lightweight, cannot match this.
The 2027 election in Osun will not be APC vs PDP vs ADC. It will be a referendum on how much margin Tinubu can build in a State where his coordinator is the sitting Governor who already controls 19 out of 30 LGAs.
