By Okoi Obono-obla
Port Harcourt, the capital of Rivers State, is arguably the capital of the South-South geopolitical zone. The city attracts a multitude of Nigerians from other geopolitical zones. It is the headquarters of the oil and gas industry, which is the mainstay of the Nigerian economy. Its Internally Generated Revenue is second only to that of Lagos.
With 3,736,434 registered voters, Rivers is the 5th largest voting state in Nigeria according to INEC’s final 2027 register. Whoever wins Rivers shapes the presidency.
A PDP Fortress That Fell
Rivers was a PDP stronghold and the safest berth when PDP was a behemoth. The APC never established a foothold there from 2015 when it became a force to be reckoned with. It suffered crushing defeats in 2015 and 2019.
But in 2023, it won. INEC’s official result: Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC) 231,591, Peter Obi (Labour) 175,071, Atiku Abubakar (PDP) 88,468. That victory was engineered by Governor Nyesom Wike, who after falling out with Atiku over PDP’s zoning provision, struck an alliance with Tinubu and revealed recently that the G5 deliberately allowed Peter Obi to win in parts of the South-South to scuttle Atiku’s chances.
The New Actors: Obi’s Three-Party Journey
The 2027 ballot will look very different.
Peter Obi left the Labour Party in December 2025 and formally joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC) on December 31, 2025. Nearly five months later, on May 3, 2026, he and Rabiu Kwankwaso announced their move to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). INEC’s final list now shows: Tinubu – APC, Atiku Abubakar/Rotimi Amaechi – ADC, Peter Obi/Rabiu Kwankwaso – NDC.
The vice-presidential candidate of the ADC, Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, is from Rivers State. He was Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly from 1999 to 2007 and Governor from 2007 to 2015, but his political clout, weight and influence has dwindled considerably in the face of the grassroots political machinery of his estranged associate Nyesom Wike, as he lost the 2015, 2019 and 2023 elections.
The Masterstroke: How Fubara Became an APC Governor Without a Ticket
The most important fact for 2027 is this: Governor Siminalayi Fubara is officially still a member of the APC, which he defected to on December 9, 2025 at the height of his political difference with his former benefactor Wike. He officially remains in APC even though APC denied him its ticket for a second term.
The facts are now public: Following the state of emergency declared by President Tinubu in Rivers in 2025 and his reinstatement, Fubara joined the APC, withdrew from the 2026 governorship primary race, and endorsed the candidate backed by the Wike-led political family. When Fubara tried the same game and defected to APC, Wike still sidelined him and denied him the reelection ticket. He instead got House of Representatives Minority Leader Kingsley Chinda to defect to APC and gave him the ticket.
Wike’s strategy was brilliant: He retained control of Rivers PDP structures, including a majority of State Assembly members, then used his federal position to seize the Rivers State APC structure, then merged the two. Fubara walked into the same APC and was trapped.
Fubara himself recently reaffirmed that he remains a member of APC, dismissing defection rumours.
Projection: Who Wins What?
With Fubara neutralized inside APC, the 2027 election in Rivers is no longer APC vs PDP. It is Wike’s APC vs everyone else.
1. Presidential Election in Rivers — Winner: Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC)
If Wike delivers on his vow to deliver Rivers’ huge votes to President Tinubu, and if it materializes, it can swing the national presidential result in his favour. With Fubara, Chinda and the entire state machinery now inside APC, Tinubu will win Rivers. The only variable is margin — 45-50% in a low turnout scenario. Peter Obi’s NDC will come second with 30-35%, winning Port Harcourt City and Obio/Akpor, but not enough to flip the state. Atiku/Amaechi’s ADC will come third. Atiku will struggle because sentiment in Rivers is disposed to a Southerner retaining the presidency.
2. Governorship Election — Winner: Kingsley Chinda (APC) — Wike Faction
PDP is dead in Rivers. Its leader Wike is officially still PDP but controls APC. Its governor Fubara has left for APC. The governorship will be won by Kingsley Chinda, Wike’s anointed candidate, backed by both the old PDP and new APC structures. Fubara’s endorsement seals it.
3. National Assembly — APC Sweep
APC will take 10 of 13 House of Reps seats and all 3 Senate seats. NDC may pick 1-2 urban seats in Port Harcourt if turnout is high.
Conclusion
It seems 2027 will not be different in outcome, but it will be different in meaning. From 1999 to 2019, Rivers was a PDP state. In 2023, it became a Wike state that voted APC for president. In 2027, it will become an APC state outright, because Wike has absorbed the sitting governor into his party and then denied him the ticket.
The race will not be crunchy between parties. It will be crunchy within one party. And that is why President Tinubu’s alliance with Minister Nyesom Wike, now more concretized and stronger than it was in 2023, makes him the overwhelming favorite to win Rivers State.
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