- By Okoi Obono-Obla
Ondo State has a Governor who was elected on 16 November 2024 and sworn in on 24 February 2025, and therefore will not have a governorship election on 6 February 2027, but only a State House of Assembly election. Because Ondo is an off-cycle state, its next governorship election will be in 2028.
Ondo is a solid APC state. The party has produced all the governors since 2017 – the late Rotimi Akeredolu (2017-2023) and incumbent Lucky Aiyedatiwa (2023 to date). Before then, from 2009 to 2017, the state was governed by Olusegun Mimiko of the Labour Party. Even at the height of its influence in the South-West, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), founded in 2006, never won the governorship of Ondo. The ACN later merged with the ANPP, CPC and a faction of APGA to form the APC. Ondo falls within the sphere of political influence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the South-West geopolitical zone.
On election dates, INEC first fixed 20 February 2027 for Presidential and National Assembly elections and 6 March 2027 for Governorship and State Assembly elections. Following concerns about Ramadan, INEC revised the timetable. Under the revised timetable, Presidential and National Assembly elections will now hold on Saturday, 16 January 2027, while Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections are scheduled for Saturday, 6 February 2027.
There is nothing on the ground so far to indicate that by February 2027 there would be a political seismic shift to remove Ondo State from the orbit of the APC.
Voting Strength:
Ondo is a medium-low voting strength state. For the 2024 governorship election, INEC released a final register of 2,053,061 registered voters. For the 2027 general election, in the national update that put total registered voters at 103,428,715, INEC listed Ondo with 1,733,641 registered voters after a clean-up, just above the FCT. The figure is expected to rise above 2 million again after the Continuous Voter Registration and PVC collection from 9 October 2026. Historical turnout is 25-35%, so actual votes cast are usually 500,000 to 700,000.
Projection for Ondo State – Based on Current Political Dynamics:
Taking into account Ondo’s voting strength, its status as an off-cycle state with no governorship contest to drive opposition momentum, its solid APC structure since 2017, and the tenuous and wobbling hold of opposition parties as exposed in the 16 November 2024 governorship election where APC polled 366,781 against PDP’s 117,845:
1. Presidential Election (16 January 2027): Projected Winner – APC / Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Ondo remains within the South-West APC orbit. With the NDC yet to find its feet and the ADC fielding only 232 House of Representatives candidates nationally, neither has shown the organizational depth to flip a South-West state like Ondo. Projection: APC wins with over 60% of valid votes.
2. National Assembly Elections (16 January 2027): Projected Clean Sweep for APC
Senate (3 seats): Ondo Central, Ondo North, Ondo South – All 3 projected to APC.
House of Representatives (9 seats) – All 9 projected to APC. The limited filing by ADC and the weakness of NDC make it difficult for them to mount effective constituency campaigns.
3. State House of Assembly Election (6 February 2027): Projected Clean Sweep for APC
Ondo has 26 State Constituencies. With no governorship election to create coattails for the opposition, and with the state government machinery firmly in APC hands under Governor Aiyedatiwa, the party is projected to win 24 to 26 seats, a near-total sweep. The remaining 0-2 seats, if any, may go to PDP in its traditional pockets in Ondo South, but current indicators do not support even that.
Overall Conclusion: Unless there is a major, unforeseen national realignment between now and 15 January 2027, all electoral indicators point to Ondo State remaining a solid APC state, with the party making a clean sweep of the Presidential, National Assembly, and State Assembly elections, consistent with its dominance since 2015 in presidential contests and since 2017 in governorship contests.
