By Great Imo Jonathan
President Tinubu said on October 1st that Nigeria has moved “from reforms to prosperity”. That is the biggest lie in that speech. Nigerians have moved from hardship to more hardship.
Let me fact-check him line by line.
Lie 1: “Our economy has grown by over 4 per cent this year.”
Half-truth that hides hunger. Yes, NBS reported real GDP grew 4.07% year-on-year in Q4 2025 and IMF projects 4.4% for 2026. But what does that growth mean?
The non-oil sector is 97.13% of GDP and services is 53%, it is growth without jobs, without factories. GDP was also rebased in 2025, so figures are not comparable to Buhari era.
Most important, APC itself admits poverty will reach 61% in 2025 and 62% in 2026, affecting 139 million Nigerians. But the real numbers is 167 million Nigerians thrown into poverty. How can you celebrate 4% growth when 6 out of 10 Nigerians are getting poorer? Growth that does not reduce poverty is not prosperity. It is statistics for IMF, not food for Nigerians.
Lie 2: “Inflation has fallen substantially from its peak.”
Statistical trick. He did not tell you WHY it fell.
Under old CPI, headline inflation was 25.80% in Aug 2023, climbed to 32.15% in Aug 2024, peaked at 34.19% in June 2024. Then his government quietly REBASED the CPI, changed the basket and base year to 2024.
Under the new rebased series, inflation is reported as 23.14% in Aug 2025 falling to 15.39% in Aug 2026. But food inflation, the inflation that matters was still 19.57% in August. In July, food inflation was 20.31% year-on-year and 5.56% month-on-month.
Ask the woman in Kaduna market if inflation fell. Rice is N95,000, not N30,000. Fuel is N1500, not N195. You rebased the numbers, you did not rebase the hunger.
Lie 3: “Our foreign reserves have been rebuilt.”
True on the surface, lie in the substance.
Reserves did rise to $46.01bn in 2026 and then to $54.08bn as of Sept 2026. But how?
Not from production. From borrowing and hot money. Debt rose from N87.38 trillion in June 2023 to N166.79 trillion by June 30, 2026. That is almost double in 3 years.
IMF itself says Federal Government interest payments are now 53.7% of revenue in 2026. You are using reserves borrowed at high interest to defend naira while Nigerians pay the price. That is not rebuilding. That is mortgaging.
Lie 4: “Non-oil exports exceeding $6bn, highest in history.”
Another half-truth. Yes, non-oil export value rose to $6.17bn in 2025 and NEPC said $6.1bn, an 11.5% increase. But Nigeria’s import bill is over $50bn. $6bn is 3% of our trade. And 77.7% of exporters said logistics costs increased, Logistics Benchmark is 12.8/100.
You cannot clap for $6bn export while you spend $11.6bn on debt service alone in 2026.
Lie 5: The Cancer and Morphine Analogy
This is the most insulting assumption. Tinubu assumes Nigeria was a sick patient and subsidy was cancer.
Fact: Subsidy removal without plan is not treatment. It is amputating the leg to cure headache. He removed subsidy on Day 1, floated naira on Day 2, with no buses, no refineries working, no safety net. The result: Fuel N195 to N1500, Dollar N460 to N1600.
The “side effects were real” he says. Side effects? Over 70 million more Nigerians pushed into poverty, small businesses closed, Japa wave doubled. A doctor who kills the patient and says “the surgery was successful” is not a doctor.
He says he will bring down cost of living by roads and mechanized farming. Where is the road? Lagos-Calabar coastal road is 1 lane commissioned with fanfare, 700km is not done. Where is the power? Grid still 4000MW, collapsing 8 times a year. Where are the jobs? NELFUND gave loans to less than 1% of students and made them future debtors, CREDICORP is loan to buy phones, not jobs.
He says he paid salaries on time. Which achievement is that? Paying salary is the minimum duty of government, not reform.
Honestly his speech was not an independence speech. It is a campaign speech full of rebranded failure.
You cannot eat 4% GDP growth.You cannot spend foreign reserves at the market. You cannot cook $6bn non-oil export data.
Reality is, Nigeria’s debt is N166.79 trillion, fuel is N1500, rice is N95k, light is 0 hours, Jobs is 0.
The reform built on recklessness has not done its work. It has done its damage. What Nigerians need now is not another page of propaganda, but a government that governs with facts, not filters.
Unfortunately, selfishness, greed and corruption made President Tinubu blind to truth.
You cannot eat propaganda. More rebuttals are coming as campaign goes on.
Great Imo Jonathan
*Member Nigerian Democratic Congress NDC*
