By Akin Awofolaju, PhD , CLE, CSP, CFP, CFA, CFE.( Global Analyst & Neuroeconomist) – (USA)
Politics in Nigeria today increasingly resembles what literary scholars call the “Theatre of the Absurd” a stage where actors appear active, loud, emotional, and dramatic, yet fundamentally disconnected from coherent strategy, ideological clarity, and institutional realism. In this political theatre, the opposition often mistakes outrage for organization, social media excitement for electoral mathematics, and moral grandstanding for statecraft. Meanwhile, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu continues to dominate not merely because he is invincible, but because he understands power as a system, not an event.
1. Tinubu Understands Politics as Structure, Opposition Treats It as Emotion
The first reason for Tinubu’s resilience is strategic asymmetry.
Tinubu built political infrastructure for decades:
– grassroots loyalists,
– governors’ networks,
– legislative alliances,
– patronage systems,
– media relationships,
– judicial familiarity,
– regional bargaining mechanisms,
and elite negotiation channels.
Most opposition movements, however, operate episodically. They become hyperactive only near elections. Their politics is fueled by emotional momentum rather than institutional continuity.
In political science, power is rarely defeated by anger or threat alone. It is defeated by superior organization.
The opposition often behaves as though public frustration automatically converts into electoral victory. Tinubu understands that elections are not won by hashtags but by structures that survive after trending topics disappear.
2. The Opposition Is United by Hatred of Tinubu, Not Agreement on Nigeria
One of the greatest contradictions within Nigeria’s opposition ecosystem is ideological emptiness.
The coalition against Tinubu frequently contains:
– his former rivals,
– feasible incompatible regional interests ex-officios,
– political jobbers and ex-establishment figures,
– die hard religious bigots, claimed conservatives posing as reformists,
and politicians who were themselves architects of the failures they now condemn.
Their common denominator is not a shared national vision but a shared hostility toward Alhaji Bola Tinubu.
History shows that anti-incumbency coalitions without ideological cohesion usually collapse under the weight of sheer frivolous ambition. Once power becomes attainable, contradictions emerge immediately:
Who leads?
Which region dominates?
What economic philosophy governs?
Subsidy or no subsidy?
Centralization or restructuring?
Market reforms or welfare populism?
The opposition has not convincingly answered these questions.
Tinubu benefits from this confusion because fragmented alternatives make continuity appear safer than uncertainty.
3. Nigerian Opposition often confuses moral performance with Political Strategy
Another major weakness is performative opposition.
Many opposition elites specialize in:
– press conferences,
– outrage interviews,
– viral rhetoric, video clips syndrome
– unorthodox elite seminars,
– intellectual criticism, and retrospective wisdom after political failure.
But effective opposition requires painful long-term political engineering:
– Voter registration drives,
– Polling unit penetration,
– Coalition discipline,
– political rehabilitation
– Local government consolidation,
– Candidate grooming,
– Fundraising networks, and legal preparedness.
Complaining after defeat is not strategy.
Too often, Nigeria’s opposition reacts rather than plans. It is tactical without being strategic. Tinubu, by contrast, is strategic even when tactically unpopular.
4. Tinubu Understands Elite Consensus Better Than His Rivals
Nigeria is not governed solely through democratic idealism; it also operates through elite balancing.
Tinubu understands:
– Regional anxieties,
– Business interests,
– Security establishments,
– Traditional power brokers,
– Party machinery and how to use it,
and most importantly, the elite survival instincts.
Even many who criticize him publicly still negotiate with his system privately because he understands transactional politics.
The opposition frequently underestimates this reality. They assume electoral passion alone can overturn entrenched elite consensus. But Nigerian politics historically rewards coalition builders more than moral crusaders.
This does not necessarily make the system ideal. It simply reflects political realism.
5. Economic Pain Does Not Automatically Produce Political Defeat
A recurring assumption is that hardship alone guarantees the downfall of incumbents.
History disproves this repeatedly.
Citizens suffering economic pain do not only ask:
“Are we suffering?”
They also ask:
“Who else is capable?”
“Will alternatives be better or worse?”
“Can the opposition govern coherently?”
“Do they possess stability?”
Where opposition credibility is weak, populations often endure hardship while still tolerating incumbents perceived as more politically competent.
Tinubu’s reforms especially fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate liberalization generated severe pain, but they also created a perception among some elites and international observers that he is willing to take politically risky decisions previous administrations avoided.
The opposition has struggled to present a technically coherent counter-economic framework beyond criticism.
1. Social Media Is Not Nigeria
One of the biggest strategic delusions in modern Nigerian politics is equating online dominance with national dominance.
Nigeria’s decisive electoral terrain remains:
– Rural networks,
– Ward structures,
– Religious influence,
– Ethnic balancing,
– Local patronage, and turnout management.
Urban digital spaces amplify noise but do not fully represent electoral realities across the federation.
The opposition often wins narratives online while losing organizational battles offline.
Tinubu’s political machinery understands this distinction deeply.
2. The Opposition Suffers From Selective Historical Amnesia
Many opposition figures attack the present as though they were not participants in the past.
Nigerians notice this contradiction.
Citizens remember:
– Who served in former administrations,
– Who defended failed policies,
– Who enabled corruption,
– Who benefited from old systems,
and who remained silent during previous crises.
When former insiders suddenly reinvent themselves as revolutionaries, credibility weakens.
Tinubu benefits because many attacks against him come from political actors whose own historical records remain contested.
In my conclusion:
Pres.Tinubu triumphs because politics rewards preparation more than mere protest and claptraps.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu triumphs not solely because Nigerians are satisfied, nor because opposition criticism lacks validity.
He triumphs because he understands the mechanics of power more comprehensively than his rivals.
The tragedy of Nigeria’s opposition is not merely that it loses elections. It is that it repeatedly mistakes, the performance for preparation, an outrage for organization, and the coalition headlines for durable political architecture.
In the “Theatre of Absurdity,” actors shout, accuse, dramatize, and improvise endlessly.
But the one who controls the stage design, lighting system, script timing, backstage alliances, and audience management usually determines the ending before the performance even begins.
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