The Fractured Order: China’s Rise and the Future of International Law

By Okoi Obono-Obla 

The Fractured Order: China’s Rise and the Future of International Law:

China, often described as a quiet giant, remained in relative slumber for several centuries until 1949, when it suddenly arose from its self‑imposed lethargy and feudal structures. This prolonged stagnation was one of the reasons it lagged behind while the West, having acquired gunpowder technology from China, transformed its military capabilities and advanced its colonial expansion across Africa, the Americas, and Asia.

China’s awakening came through revolutionaries led by Mao Zedong. Within the country, divisions and schisms sparked a civil war between rival factions. The epic struggle for China’s soul culminated in the defeat of the Nationalists, who made a last‑ditch effort for survival by retreating to Taiwan. There, they established a separate government, seeking an ideological break from the revolutionaries who had taken control of mainland China.

Although the Nationalists successfully founded what they considered a new country, mainland China never recognized Taiwan’s sovereignty, consistently asserting that Taiwan remains an inseparable part of the People’s Republic of China. On the international stage, Taiwan has not been recognized as a sovereign state by the United Nations or most countries. However, the United States has maintained a policy of support for Taiwan, creating a persistent source of friction between Washington and Beijing.

Between 1949 and the present, China has risen like the phoenix, shaking off the forces that had held it down for centuries to become a global economic, technological, and military giant that no world power can ignore or take for granted. Fully cognizant of its strength, China now observes a breakdown in international law, exemplified by the United States and Israel unilaterally attacking Iran on one hand, and Russia invading Ukraine and annexing part of its territory on the other. These precedents of unilateralism and disregard for international norms raise a pressing question: will China, emboldened by its resurgence and the fractured state of global order, take advantage of these examples to reclaim Taiwan?

Conclusion:
The trajectory of international law appears increasingly uncertain, undermined by unilateral actions of powerful states. In this climate, China’s rise and its long‑standing claim over Taiwan converge into a potential flashpoint. Whether China will act decisively or continue to exercise strategic patience remains to be seen, but the emerging trend suggests that the future of international law—and the balance of global power—may hinge on how this unresolved question is answered.