By Olalekan Idowu JIMOH
A reflection on Col. (rtd) Professor Abiodun Joseph Oluwadare’s article titled, “When Criminals Negotiate With the State: Who Is In Charge?” in This Day Newspaper on 21st June, 2026.: in THISDAY Newspaper on 21st June, 2026. Link: https://www.thisdaylive.com/2026/06/21/when-criminals-negotiate-with-the-state/
Professor Abiodun Oluwadare’s essay is a masterful diagnosis of Nigeria’s security dilemma. His piercing analysis compels us to confront uncomfortable truths about authority, legitimacy, and the dangerous normalisation of fear. It is a timely intervention that deserves commendation, for it compels both leaders and citizens to ask the fundamental question: who is truly in charge?
Well, the question is not whether Nigeria has soldiers. It does. The question is not whether Nigeria has weapons. It does. The question is not whether Nigeria has laws. It does. The real question is whether Nigeria still has the authority to enforce them.
Authority is the invisible force that binds a nation together. It is what makes citizens obey traffic lights even when no police officer is watching. It is what gives communities confidence that justice will prevail without resorting to revenge. Authority is the very foundation of the state.
But that authority is leaking.
When criminals dictate the terms of peace, when bandits impose levies, and when kidnappers negotiate ransoms with government officials, the state is no longer the sole holder of legitimate coercive power. It becomes just another player at the negotiating table. That is where decline begins.
Every concession to unlawful actors sends the same dangerous message: violence pays, obedience goes unnoticed, and patience brings little reward. When law-abiding communities are neglected while criminals are granted amnesty, citizens are left asking whether loyalty to the state still has any value. As Professor Oluwadare warned, “a state that repeatedly forgives without demonstrating accountability risks creating a cycle in which violence becomes a rational economic choice.”
This is the real crisis. Not the bullets. Not the bombs. But the steady erosion of legitimacy.
I believe that Nigeria is not yet a totally failed state. But it is edging dangerously towards fragility. The normalisation of fear, the quiet acceptance that schools may be unsafe, highways may be deadly, and even those in power may be vulnerable, is perhaps the most disturbing development of all. Oluwadare cautioned that “a society enters dangerous territory when citizens begin to adapt to abnormal conditions.” That adaptation is already underway.
History whispers a warning: states rarely collapse overnight. They unravel gradually. Confidence fades. Trust disappears. Authority fragments. Then one day, citizens wake up to find that the state survives only on paper.
Nigeria must decide whether it will continue treating insecurity as a string of isolated tragedies or confront the deeper struggle for authority between lawful institutions and criminal actors. The answer will determine whether future generations inherit a nation or merely a cautionary tale.
The Way Forward
To restore authority and legitimacy, Nigeria must pursue a comprehensive strategy anchored in clear pillars.
Pillar One: Disrupt the Economics of Crime
Illegal mining, kidnapping, and extortion cannot remain profitable enterprises if the state hopes to regain its stand. Ransom payments should be targeted through financial intelligence mechanisms, while mining sites must be regulated and secured to end illegal exploitation. Authorities must also crack down on cattle rustling, arms trafficking, drug cartels, and extortion networks that sustain criminal activity across different regions. Ultimately, criminality must be made unprofitable through the seizure of illicit assets and the dismantling of supply chains that support violent actors.
Specifically, the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) must collaborate with relevant financial and telecommunications service providers to track peer-to-peer digital ransom transfers, block illicit banking lines, and trace cryptocurrency channels used by syndicates. Furthermore, formal security details must be deployed to vulnerable artisanal mining sites (in areas like Zamfara, Osun, and other states) to register local miners and intercept illegal gold-for-arms trades.
Deterrence must be central here. The state must demonstrate that crime carries inevitable consequences. Visible punishment, asset forfeiture, and the certainty of justice are stronger signals that show that violence will not be rewarded.
Pillar Two: Rebuild Governance and Local Authority
Authority cannot be restored if citizens encounter the state only during moments of crisis. Traditional rulers and local councils should therefore be empowered with both resources and accountability so that governance is felt at the grassroots level. This should include legislative amendments that ensure that local government allocations are transferred directly to council accounts rather than being withheld in joint state accounts. This will strengthen their financial and administrative autonomy. Alongside this should also be constitutional reforms that formally integrate traditional rulers into local security councils and governance structures. Communities must see the state as a constant presence in daily life rather than an occasional responder to emergencies. Proactiveness creates a sense of security.
At the same time, regional development must become a national priority. Some parts of the country cannot remain trapped in chronic insecurity and underdevelopment while other zones continue to advance. Interventions should feature targeted regional development plans, focusing on critical infrastructure such as rural feeder roads, electricity, and water supply, particularly in isolated and vulnerable border communities.
Pillar Three: Reform Policing and Community Security
Policing must be professionalised and rooted in public trust. Recruitment should be based on competence rather than patronage. Officers should be trained in intelligence gathering, rapid response, and community relations. Rather than leaving qualified young Nigerians underutilised, youths with degrees and professional training in criminology, intelligence, security, and related disciplines should be deliberately recruited by the government and strategically deployed across federal, state, and local security agencies. State-level policing structures that reflect Nigeria’s diversity as well as constitutional and security realities should be considered, and community policing must be genuinely localised to ensure that communities have ownership of, and a genuine stake in, their own security.
In addition, the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), which already operates nationwide, should also be armed and trained to deter violent highway attacks. This will extend deterrence to Nigeria’s most vulnerable transport corridors. Properly established and regulated private security companies could also be armed and integrated into the national security framework to protect schools and critical infrastructure where the public security agencies are overstretched. Such integration, however, must operate under strict regulatory oversight to prevent the emergence of new centres of unchecked power.
Pillar Four: Restore the Rule of Law
No state can maintain legitimacy without a credible justice system. Justice must therefore be swift, credible, and visible. Specialised judicial mechanisms should be created to handle terrorism, kidnapping, and organised crime cases more efficiently. To guarantee swiftness, statutory timelines should be enacted requiring these specialised tribunals to conclude trials without unnecessary delays.
The government needs to stop giving easy, unearned amnesty without accountability to criminals just for political expediency. Instead, criminal actors and combatants must face justice, and any rehabilitation programmes designed to bring them back into society must strictly depend on clearly defined legal and security criteria, including verifiable deradicalisation and disengagement from violent activities. Equally important, corruption must be confronted without compromise, because insecurity flourishes wherever public resources are stolen and institutions are weakened. This requires stronger oversight and independent audits of military and police procurement budgets, alongside the swift prosecution of officials found diverting operational and security funds.
Pillar Five: Invest in People, Values, and Residency Management
Security is not achieved solely through force. It also depends on creating opportunities and strengthening civic culture. Youth unemployment must therefore be tackled decisively through investments in vocational training, agribusiness, and technology hubs and entrepreneurship. Idle hands should be converted into productive citizens to reduce the recruitment pool available to criminal groups. This can be operationalised through state-backed agricultural credit schemes and the establishment of technology incubation centres in every senatorial district to absorb young tech-talents and vocations into legitimate enterprises.
Alongside this, civic education must be revived to teach young Nigerians that legitimate authority rests on the rule of law, not violence. Security education must also be reinforced to equip citizens with the knowledge and ability to respond appropriately and effectively to threats and insecurity.
Residency and occupancy management should also be introduced to strengthen community accountability. Proper registration of residents, lawful monitoring of occupancy in urban and rural settlements, and transparent data systems will help authorities track criminal infiltration, prevent anonymous settlements, and reinforce deterrence by ensuring that every community is visible to the state. The National Orientation Agency and other relevant bodies need to consider a “Know Your Neighbour” campaign, a nationwide community-based campaign built around responsible neighbourhood awareness and citizen cooperation.
Pragmatically, this should entail integrating the National Identification Number (NIN) with local tenancy registers, land administration systems, and hotel lodging logs to create an interconnected, searchable database for local law enforcement. Crucially, landlords, real estate agents, trade and association leaders must be legally integrated into this framework as frontline gatekeepers; they must be mandated by law to conduct verified NIN background checks on prospective tenants and submit verified occupancy updates to local digital registries before handovers, with strict legal penalties enforced for property owners who knowingly harbour unregistered or anonymous occupants. Such residency-management system, however, must be designed with clear legal safeguards, data protections against discrimination or arbitrary surveillance.
Pillar Six: Depoliticise Security
Security institutions must remain impartial if they are to command public confidence. Security should therefore be removed from partisan politics, particularly during election periods. Political actors must be held accountable whenever they sponsor or exploit violence, while security agencies must remain neutral and constitutionally bound in the discharge of their responsibilities. Appropriate legal protections or steep sanctions, as the case may be, should be in place to deter security operatives from obeying unlawful directives.
Pillar Seven: Modernise National Security Strategy
Nigeria’s security strategy must evolve beyond reactive responses. Military efforts should shift from repeatedly pursuing foot soldiers to dismantling the networks that finance, recruit, and sustain them. Intelligence-led operations and stronger regional cooperation should become central elements of national security policy. At the same time, the military should not be expected to substitute for governance.
Border management must be strengthened to curb the movement of arms, fighters, and contraband through the deployment of automated biometric border control systems, thermal-imaging surveillance drones, and other appropriate technologies along porous frontiers. These measures should be complemented by intelligence-led patrols, fortified human intelligence networks, alongside a unified command centre that integrates military, immigration, customs, police, and other relevant security data. Such integration would improve situational awareness, enable faster threat detection and coordinated response, strengthen the tracing of criminal financing, and facilitate the identification of persons, routes, and networks associated with cross-border criminal activity. The importance of training, equipping, and accountability of border personnel, alongside structured engagement with border communities to improve information gathering and early warning, must not be underplayed.
Although foreign partners may also provide intelligence, training, equipment and other forms of assistance, Nigerians must remember Oluwadare’s reminder that “no foreign country will secure Nigeria more passionately than Nigerians themselves. Foreign partners act primarily in pursuit of their own national interests.”
Pillar Eight: Restore Public Confidence
Ultimately, authority is sustained by public confidence. Citizens must be able to see and experience the benefits of security and governance reforms in their daily lives. Visible victories such as safe schools, secure highways, and functioning courts, responsive emergency services, and accountable institutions are essential to rebuilding trust. This confidence can be systematically measured and reinforced through the publication of verifiable quarterly safety metrics by local governments, alongside the establishment of transparent, toll-free whistle-blower hotlines that guarantee citizen anonymity. The state must replace fear with confidence by demonstrating consistently that it can protect its citizens and uphold the rule of law.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s challenge is not simply to defeat bandits. It is to restore the legitimacy of the state. Unless deterrence is established, the economics of crime dismantled, institutions rebuilt, corruption confronted, and public trust restored, violence will continue to appear a rational economic choice for many actors. The time to act is now, before the state’s authority slips beyond recovery.
