How do the numbers for the 2023 elections stack up?


Ozodi Osuji

Jerome Nwonuma:

     The write up, that I sent to you, and you responded to, was not only on the number of voting booths in Nigeria but covered the Nigerian population and broke it down to the six regions of Nigeria. What got my attention is that there are over 96 million registered voters in Nigeria.

      Over 51 million registered voters in Nigeria are, according to the write-up, in the north and only 45 million are in the south.

      It showed that there are only 11 million registered voters in the southeast’s five states. I am going to assume that many Igbos are in other regions of Nigeria, including the southwest with 18 million registered voters and the north with 51 million registered voters (are these numbers correct, is a question to ask?).

     If the statistics is accurate all we can realistically assume is that Peter Obi will have most Igbos voting for him, that is, 11 million out of 96 million voters.

      Atiku will probably be voted for by folks in the north; if this statistic is true then Atiku will easily win the 2023 election because he will get the northern, Hausa-Fulani votes and some from the south-south and southwest.

     This extrapolation is from doing realistic political analysis, not talking just to feel good. What I am interested in is to find out if Peter Obi has a realistic chance of winning the 2023 election. The answer, given Nigerians political behavior of voting for their ethnic persons, currently is probably not!  Nevertheless, I wish that he wins.

      Yorubas tend to be good with numbers and make decisions based on numbers. Yesterday, I also posted a little vignette on the number of Nigerians outside Nigeria, posted by a Yoruba guy, Dr Sunday Iwalaiye. It showed that there are about 386, 000 Nigerians in the USA (which is about what the USA census figure says). But when you hear Igbos talk about it, they say that there are millions of Igbos, alone, in the USA. Folks’ ought to pay attention to numbers; data, statistics rather than making outlandish claims is what wins elections.

     Peter Obi makes unsubstantiated claims that anyone who takes numbers seriously would not take him seriously.

     Politics is not just having people come to one’s little rallies but keeping an eye on real numbers because in a democracy those with the votes win.

       The various statistical offices at the Federal government level in Nigeria are manned mostly by Yorubas.  

    Pay attention to numbers and their consequences in politics. For example, as of today, the number of white Americans has fallen to about 59.9% of the USA’s 333 million persons. It used to be over 75%.

     The percentage of Latinos in the USA has risen geometrically; demographers tell us that by 2050 (less than thirty years) Latinos will be over 50% of the US population.

     In a democracy Latinos will easily win to be president and dominate Congress. This is the source of white angst, why they support fascist candidates like Donald Trump; they are looking for ways to keep nonblacks out; the recent anti-abortion supreme court ruling is meant to have white women have more children, so that their population keeps up with Latinos who breed like there is no tomorrow!

    They cannot increase their population by having Europeans come here, as they used to do in the past, because western Europe attained zero population growth, meaning that they have two children per family, and merely replace themselves and are not increasing in numbers hence have no surplus population to export to the USA.

     White Americans now have visceral fear of becoming a minority group in their own country; they have fear of replacement. At Trump’s political rallies, they chant, they (minorities) will not replace us.

     Take numbers seriously; Igbos tend to be cavalier with numbers and when they lose elections, they evince surprise!

     Democracy is a game of numbers, not mere wishes.

    If you want Peter Obi to win the upcoming election then go to the North, especially the Middle Belt region and other parts of Nigeria and campaign there.  Running around Europe and North America will not make any difference in the election’s outcome. Except in so far that diasporan Nigerians can make campaign contributions to Peter Obi. Talking about that, the Hausa-Fulani Attorney General of Nigeria is aware of that and wants to stop it; yesterday, he made a threat to punish whoever sends money to Peter Obi’s campaign from abroad!

Ozodi Osuji

September 5, 2022

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