Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba was born in 1945. Benjamin currently lives in Medfield, Massachusetts. Before that, Benjamin lived in Medfield, MA from 1994 to 2002. Before that, Benjamin lived in Salinas, CA from 1999 to 2000.
The existence of many small parties in Nigeria along with a mega party is one of the major reasons why democracy in the country is not thriving as it ought to. This condition does not allow for a level playing field. If the condition continues like this PDP will be in power for ever and Nigeria would continue its roller coaster rides.
Therefore the decision for the minority parties to join hands is a noble idea.
There are many advantages to be gained by forming a second mega party.
But APC faces tremendous hurdles if it will succeed. The hurdles need to be recognized before it can be tackled.
There are opportunities and challenges. It will be a shame if the challenges triumph over opportunities. Nigeria’s future will depend on the ability of the nation to develop another mega party. The initiators of this noble idea would succeed if they have the interest of the nation in mind.
They will fail if all they seek is an opportunity to further their ethnic, religious, or selfish political goals.
We shall see.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
February 16, 2013
We are now in the last days of 2012 US elections. I have predicted a landslide for Mr. Obama and everybody else has predicted a tight election with many predicting a slight edge for Mr. Romney. Words are no longer that important, or at least, not as important as body language. It is the body language that tells what a person actually believes and feels. Here are the body languages that tell me that the Republicans are feeling a lot of heath:
When you look at the candidates you will see noticeable difference in the bounce in their steps, in the smiles on their faces, in what their surrogates are saying. In fact one candidate barely has surrogates now. Where are the Republican surrogates? Duval Patrick, Clinton, Howard Dean etc are all over the place for Obama. Where is Boehner of the House? And the Senate Minority Leader?
Words are important but body language seems to contradict the words. We will know for sure in 6 days.
We are seeing Hail Mary passes everywhere. We are seeing desperate moves on one side and peace and quiet on the other side. Reality could be dawning on everybody.
Remember that this is October and in US elections one hears about “October Surprise.”
Could this be it?
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 31, 2012
I seize Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, NH, Arizona, for Obama and concede North Carolina and Indiana to Romney.
I am sticking to my 55/41 prediction on the popular vote for the following reasons:
Obama’s wins in large population states like California, NY, MA, Pennsylvania is such that it cannot be made up with wins in the small population states such as South Dakota and Wyoming.
Romney’s wins in the South such as N & S Carolina, Texas, etc would be considerably reduced by the large minority populations in those states where minorities make up as much as 20% of the state population.
Save this for Nov. 7/8, when the full results would be on display and compare. This is the only place where you will find Arizona in Obama column. We are talking about McCain and Barry Goldwater country.
My forecasts show a land slide in both the popular votes and in the Electoral College.
When this happens would you object to my being named to head a major polling outfit?
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 26, 2012
STATE Votes Obama Romney Total
Alabama 9 9 9
Alaska 3 3 3
Arizona 11 11 11
Arkansas 6 6 6
California 55 55 55
Colorado 9 9 9
Connecticut 7 7 7
Delaware 3 3 3
District of C 3 3 3
Florida 29 29 29
Georgia 16 16 16
Hawaii 4 4 4
Idaho 4 4 4
Illinois 20 20 20
Indiana 11 11 11
Iowa 6 6 6
Kansas 6 6 6
Kentucky 8 8 8
Louisiana 8 8 8
Maine 4 4 4
Maryland 10 10 10
Massachusetts 11 11 11
Michigan 16 16 16
Minnesota 10 10 10
Mississippi 6 6 6
Missouri 10 10 10
Montana 3 3 3
Nebraska 5 5 5
Nevada 6 6 6
New Hamp 4 4 4
New Jersey 14 14 14
New Mexico 5 5 5
New York 29 29 29
North Carolina 15 15 15
North Dakota 3 3 3
Ohio 18 18 18
Oklahoma 7 7 7
Oregon 7 7 7
Pennsylvania 20 20 20
Rhode Island 4 4 4
South Carolina 9 9 9
South Dakota 3 3 3
Tennessee 11 11 11
Texas 38 38 38
Utah 6 6 6
Vermont 3 3 3
Virginia 13 13 13
Washington 12 12 12
West Virginia 5 5 5
Wisconsin 10 10 10
Wyoming 3 3 3
TOTAL 538 343 195 538
Aduba’s final election results prediction of the popular vote. I will publish the electoral vote prediction a few days before November 6. I call out Mr. Seyi Awofeso in particular to post this at a visible place in his office. We shall have a discussion on November 8.
Population %Obama %Romney Obama Romney Obama Tot Romney Tot
Male (.25) .4 .6 0.1 0.15
Female (.25) .53 .47 0.1325 0.1175
Total White 0.2325 0.2675 (0.5)
Non White (0.5)
Hispanic (0.17) .65 .35 0.1105 0.0595 (0.17)
Black (0.15) 0.90 0.10 0.135 0.015 (0.15)
Jews (0.04) 0.55 0.45 0.022 0.018 (0.04)
Others (0.14) 0.6 0.4 0.084 0.056 (0.14)
Total non white (0.5) 0.3515 0.1485 (0.5)
TOTAL POPULATION 0.584 0.416 (1)
(1) White vote for Romney should be reduced by 0.001 due to gays who would not vote for him but added to Obama
(2) Obama’s total vote would be reduced by 0.05 for those who would not vote.
The final numbers after adjustments would be as follows
Mr. Seyi Awofeso has a long history of being wrong about Mr. Obama and his current call of Tuesday’s debate between Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney in favor of Mr. Romney will prove as misguided as his former position that Mr. Obama was not qualified to be president because he did not meet the “US born” requirement for the office of the United States President. Except for a few people in the fringe this his position is not mentioned anymore. No US attorney, not a politician and no political analyst holds this view and no one has tried to prove it in any court, both of law and of public opinion. It has not been an issue of importance to anybody in this election cycle.
Mr. Awofeso’s current position on Obama would also in time die a natural death as his “birther” position. He currently writes as follows:
“…i stated that his (Obama’s) tax and spend plan in a recession was not held together by any reed of economic logic and i then stated that Barack Obama’s tenure as President, if he won, would surely worsen and complicate America’s business and commerce, since he understands neither…
Today i’m proved absolutely right…”
This was what he predicted in 2008 piece and he has recalled it and is now asserting that he has been proved absolutely right. Let us look at what he predicted and see if there is a scintilla of evidence to assert that he is “absolutely right.”
his tax and spend plan in a recession…would surely worsen and complicate America’s business and commerce,…
Now let us fact check this statement:
I will stop here and would like for Mr. Awofeso to point out even one example where things were worse than in 2008. If he does not, then, his position has been proven wrong. It did not worsen but improved when compared to where things were in 2008 when he made his prediction.
The next comparison would be could things have been different if an alternative path had been taken? This is Mitt Romney’s argument which is slightly different from Mr. Awofeso’s who asserts that things are worse. It is impossible to prove that things would have been better if a particular route had been followed. It is difficult to say what would have happened on the road not traveled. So there is no absolute proof as claimed.
Since Mr. Awofeso brought Keynesian theory into this debate let us look at it. In time of economic downturn demand is scarce and therefore supply is very low and economic activity is slow (unemployment is high; borrowing, savings, and investments are low).
Supply is non existent without demand. So the appropriate action is to stimulate demand. You do this by getting money into the hands of people who would go out and spend it. A government must do this either by borrowing it, or by printing money (yes, crank the money machine). With this money people would demand food, housing, and many other services. This would kick start supply and job creation and eventually the economy would roar. When this happens inflation would be a concern. But that, we should leave for another day.
Which part of this economic scenario does Mr. Awofeso not understand when he says that Mr. Obama misread Keynesian theory?
In exactly three weeks from today we will be celebrating Mr. Obama’s re-election. A year from today the US economy will be roaring thanks to Obama’s foresight.
And both Mr. Romney and Mr. Awofeso would be proved absolutely wrong.
Then like the earlier “birther theory” every thing would be quiet in the Western Front.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 17, 2012
Some of us have been involved in the American politics for sometime now. Those of us who have pitched our tents with Obama For America (OFA) since 2008 are now on a high alert as there are merely four weeks to November 6, 2012 when the next president of America, and by implication, the leader of the world would be elected. It is a great opportunity for Nigerians living and working in USA to get some real education on American politics. I am not here to promote Obama even though I support him and now practically work 24/7 for his reelection.
I am here to urge my fellow Nigerians to get educated.
Here are a few things we should be doing now, no matter if we are die hard republicans or democrats (in the off year elections, I am an independent; MA allows that) but in this election cycle I am a died in the wool democrat):
You do not become a Christian until you are baptized. We all need this baptism of fire.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 7, 2012
In a news article reported by Saturday Tribune of October 6, 2012 writers, Kunle Oderemi, Dapo Falade, and Wale Ajayi reported that major stake holders in the South West expressed outrage over the appointments of service chiefs made by President Goodluck Jonathan on Thursday. The report went on to say:
According to them, for the first time since independence, the South-West Yoruba have been left without a post in the top hierarchy of the nation’s armed and security forces.
If the statement is correct, that would be a necessary and sufficient condition for not appointing a SW Yoruba person as a service chief. If in the 52 years of Nigerian independence a “SW Yoruba” has been appointed a service chief, would it not be time for an Itsekiri person to serve? Or for Igalla person to serve? Is this not the “born to rule mentality in action?
I have written often on the demerits of the concept of National character in every appointment in Nigeria. Political positions at top levels should take the idea into consideration at macro level but no more. It will be wrong for every level of government to have equal representation at every level. It is the reason why we have over 40 ministries and ministers more than any other country in the world.
What the SW leaders should be looking into is the qualifications of the appointed officers. If any one is unqualified, it should be pointed out. And one of the reasons ought not be because he is not Yoruba.
If I were the president and there are two equally qualified candidates one an Idoma and the other Yoruba and I know that the Yoruba have been running the show since independence I would be inclined to use that as a tie breaker and award the command to the Idoma.
There are 300 ethnic groups in Nigeria and no one group should be in charge all the time UNLESS the group has been able to provide the most qualified candidate. And even in this regard remedial steps should be taken bring the backward groups up to speed affirmatively
By pursuing these appointments from the perspective quoted above SW leaders have lost their case. If they were to find a more qualified Yoruba and present him for appointment, such a candidate would not have credibility any more. Good leaders ought to use their words carefully.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 9, 2012
According to this Day report (http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/atiku-advocates-return-to-regionalism/125388/) the former vice President Mr. Atiku Abubakar demanded that the zones be strengthened so that they would serve as former regions. Here is a summary of ideas that came up during annual Newspaper Leadership award ceremonies:
These men are distinguished Nigerians who had served (and still serve) Nigeria at very high levels. The common trend in each of the speakers is dissatisfaction with the Nigeria’s current status. Each one has been responsible for the Nigeria we now have and each has responsibility to right whatsoever is wrong with the country. I however think that each of them has a bad diagnosis of what is ailing Nigeria and their prescriptions accordingly would not heal the sick patient. I will address each advocate’s position and point out why I think the prescription is wrong for Nigeria
What Nigerian needs are not cry babies like Messrs Atiku, Tinubu and Danjuma. We need people who would role up their sleeves and join the government and lead by example, who would be advocating helpful solutions that may not be popular.
If there is a restructuring that Nigeria needs, it would be to go back to the Westminster Parliamentary structure advocated and then abandoned by Mr. Awolowo. It will make the Prime Minister sit with the legislators and make laws and make the PM just a regular guy.
The presidential form of government is too costly; it isolates the president from the common man; and it forces on the nation many ego maniacs.
It makes Nigeria believe that it is another America and a giant of Africa.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
September 20, 2012
The Igbo should forget about 2015, when the thought gets to thinking of producing the president of Nigeria. They should also forget about 2019 and 2023.
It will not happen.
But in case the Yoruba want to start jumping up and praising my foresight please let them know that there would also not be Yoruba president in the time frame. The Hausa/Fulani should not take any comfort in my forecast either for they too will not have a man/woman in Aso rock during that period. The big three presidential ambitions have been declared not acceptable to Nigerians.
And that is good news.
For the greater path of this 21st century, the minorities will rule Nigeria whether the Big Three likes it or not.
Mr. Femi Adesina thinks that the Igbo must first reconcile within the Igbo community what it wants before it can produce acceptable Nigerian president. But Mr. Adesina does not know of what he speaketh.
Even if all Igbo, 40 million or so of them, come together and agree on a candidate, that candidate would still not make it to Aso Rock. Neither will a consensus Yoruba or Hausa candidate. The reason is that the Big Three have reached a point where they cancel out each other’s ambition.
A Yoruba candidate would fail just because he is Yoruba and for no other reason just as an Igbo would fail. And a Hausa too.
The minority nationalities have finally understood the power in their numbers and in the foreseeable future would weld this power fearlessly and to the good of Nigeria.
The way to power for the Yoruba is to find a Joseph Tarka, build followership behind him, and ride him to Aso Rock. The Igbo needs to find a Jonathan and follow the recommendation for the Yoruba. The Hausa needs to find a Samuel Sambo and follow the same recommendation.
The point I am making is the Big Three needs to find a minority and support him. The minority nationalities are reversible just as the Big Three. Ijaw, Idoma, Igalla, Efik, etc will be available to each of the Big Three. In fact a smarter way to Aso Rock would be for a front candidate to be free of an obvious support from any of the Big Three. So an Ikwerre man supported by the Hausa would sail through much easier that an Ikwerre man supported by the Igbo.
Of course there are risks. The Igbo expression is that the challenge is usually not in giving a cup of water to the monkey but in retrieving the cup after the monkey has had his drink. But politicians do remember their benefactors. The Big Three can take some comfort in this political reality. The minority front would realize quickly that he could not rule without the support of his erstwhile God Father.
This brings me to why this arrangement would be good for Nigeria.
The arrangement brings inclusion. Up to this point the big men had held that there is no Nigeria without them. The Yoruba walk around with swagger believing that Nigeria is made for the well being of the Yoruba. The Hausa, with equal or more swaggers believes that they are born to rule and Nigeria ought to be broken up if they are not in charge. And Igbo while not swaggering like the Yoruba and Hausa, having learned form the defeat of Biafra, nevertheless believes that they should be the next in line. There is no humility in any of them.
Well the remaining 297 other ethnic Nigerians now believe that they are “somebody” too. They will no longer just follow. No more follow follow.
Mr. Jonathan’s election has opened their eyes.
Beyond the fact that a minority at the helm provides the opportunity for inclusion and cooperation is the fact of equity. The minority population lives mostly in two zones of SS and NC. These zones contain over 80% of Nigerian resources: minerals, and agriculture. As the home for the country’s wealth, they now understand that the wealth should be shared equally and that they ought to be at the table (in fact at the head of the table) where the decisions are made.
Besides fairness and inclusion there is a third reason why minorities serve Nigeria better. They are better politicians. They are better trained. If an Igbo wants to be the Student President of UNN all one needs is to gather a few Umuahia/DMGS/CKC Igbo old boys and you are in. If a Yoruba wants to run for similar office at Ife he has just as an easy path as the Igbo at UNN. Ditto for the Hausa boy at Ahmadu Bellow University. But consider an Efik who wants to be the president of the student Union at Calabar or Uyo He must negotiate a deal with Efik, Annang, Ibibio, Ogoja, and others. Such a person must also consider the Igbo in their mist. The minority person understands the need to build bridges. The boys from the Big Three have no time for such silliness.
Finally a minority Nigerian at the helm comes with the belief (which is real) that his people alone cannot make it if Nigeria actually fractures. Each is just too small; so, that motivates the minority to try hard to hold things together. Compare that with the can do attitude of one from the Big Three I can govern Nigeria without the Igbo). Each believes that they are being held back by the rest of the country; that they would fair better if Nigeria is broken into 300 nationalities. They are mistaken but perception and reality are usually too difficult to separate.
I am not saying that there would never be an Igbo president (or Yoruba or Hausa) in the future, but they need time to learn the skills that the minority had learned in the first 60 years of the Nigerian nation. They need to go to the wood shade for now. They need to be sent to their room for at least 50 years.
They will come out after they have learned their manners.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
September 11, 2012
Nigerians love sports. All kinds of sports. Soccer. Track and field. Basketball. You name it; they love it. Nigerians are also good at playing sports. There is no greater proof of this than the number of Nigerians playing each sport at the international professional leagues. I do not mean Diaspora born Nigerians, but the home grown kind. Christian Okoye, Olajuwon etc of the 80's and 90's were all born and bred in Nigeria before finding fortune in football (American variety) and basketball (American invention). Neither of these men learned the rudiments of his sport seriously in Nigeria but each had developed the proper athletic attitude and determination in Nigeria before venturing abroad.
With the above as background I can state unequivocally that sports talent abounds in Nigeria. I can also state with equal confidence that the coaching talents abound in Nigeria. These points are important to make because we are or should be preparing for 2016/2020 Olympics and 2014/2018 World soccer games. The time to start preparing is now although 2014 World soccer may be too late already.
There are three components to sports' success: talent, coaching and administration. I have posited that talents abound and gave as example the number of Nigerian players abroad. Now to the proof that coaching talents exist let us explore what we know. Highly paid coaches in the international sports world are more like finishing teachers and schools. The heavy lifting was done in the primary schools, secondary schools, and colleges. It was in these places that athletes were discovered; given the fundamentals of competition; and sent out to the finishing schools. Harvard University brags about the brilliance of her graduates, but if you really want to know the secret one must go to the history of the students they recruit. Most often these students were stand outs in both primary and secondary schools where they learned to study hard for long periods. So it is with Nigerian athletes. The coaches who developed them in primary schools and in secondary schools are the real geniuses not the Real Madrid coach.
And this is where the Nigerian preparation for the 2014 – 2020 international sports competitions should start. And start now. If history is any guide I speculate that sometime in 2014, say around March, Nigeria would be looking for a miracle worker from Europe to take over a rag tag sports team and expect the miracle worker to turn the team into a world class team. It has not worked and will never work.
Nigeria should in the next couple of months before this year ends settle on Nigeria based coaches for both the Olympics and World Cup Soccer games. The Country will give the coaches wide mandates to recruit, train and motivate the players and bring them to world class standards. The country would make clear what the goals are and how those goals will be measured and compensated if achieved.
The country would then move to the owner's box and hands off the recruitment, training, and motivation to the hired coaches with the message "call us if you need help." There would be no tying of the coaches hands with such ropes as national character standards; or contributions to the political parties; or invitation to join clubs. Unless the coach calls for help Nigeria would assume the coaches are OK until the first review period is reached.
When I say Nigeria I do not mean the Jonathan Administration. That body should care less if any team is fielded or not; if the fielded team won or lost; if the entire teams' last names are Aduba from Oji River in Enugu state and none from Ekiti or from Sokoto. This government would not even care if stadia are built beyond the promise to lease land to whoever wants to build one at the fair market value for such land.
The government's other promise would be limited to providing infrastructure (roads, water, power, etc to and around the stadia). Let the local communities via the LG deal with these issues. Let the wealthy men and women, who have capital form clubs; Let the wealthy ones form corporations to build the stadia and lease them to the clubs. The only involvement of the governments would be in establishing sports commissions whose sole purpose would be the regulation of activities.
There is money to be made in sports in Nigeria, let the government allow individuals to make the money.
With the coaches hired and given broad mandates, government would create a suitable environment for athletes and coaches to reach the objectives established such as advanced coaching courses abroad when not available locally, attendance to international conferences to join in establishing the rules. Referees should also be afforded such opportunities.
All these items could be classified under sports administration. It is in this area that talents are lacking. Management is a learned skill and Nigerians can be trained to acquire this skill.
So what have I just said?
Nigeria has a gold mine of athletic talents. Nigeria has a truck load of good coaches. Nigerians love sports. Nigeria should therefore recruit and train these athletes and coaches and charge them with being competitive in the 2014-2020 Olympics and World Cup soccer matches. The time to start is now and should involve cooperation between the government, the private sector and the ordinary Nigerian people.
The people to do all these abound in Nigeria now.
It will be stupid to wait for the last six months before the competition to roam the world in search of miracle workers.
They do not exist.
But if we insist, one con man or woman, would come around and take our money.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
September 2, 2012