My dear Dr. Gloria Johnson:
Here is my response to your request that I write something on the seeming looming war between the West and Russia. I do not think, in fact, I know that the USA is not going to go to war with Russia. Why?
Russia has enough nuclear weapons to eviscerate the entire USA. In graduate school, when such things interested me, I took classes on US and USSR military strategies. In one course, we actually learned what missiles were targeted at what US and USSR cities.
For example, if the US were to make noise, within thirty minutes (that is how long it takes for intercontinental ballistic missiles carrying nuclear weapons to travel from Russia to the USA) most major US cities would go up in smoke.
I live at Anchorage and know that the city is targeted and would be history is less than fifteen minutes were war to break out with Russia. The leaders of America are not drunk and do not have death wish to mess with the Siberian bear, Russia.
Regarding what is going in in the Ukraine, it is a bit more complicated than folks are led to believe? Russia itself started in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine (the first Russian king, King Olaf lived in Kiev around 900 AD...and that first Russian king, hear this, was a Scandinavian; the Scandinavians, that is, Norwegians, Swedes and Danish used to enslave Russians and called them Slavs hence their name till today is Slavic people, slaves...the Scandinavians captured them and sold them to Arabs!). That is correct; Kiev was once the capital of Russia before Moscow and St Petersburg.
The language of Ukraine and Russia is the same; they differ as in dialects (in Igbo they would be like Owerri and Onitsha dialects of the same Igbo language); the two people speak to each other directly without the need for interpreters. They are the same Slavic people (as well as the Polish and other Eastern Europeans...A polish man understands Russian, and the same goes for Yugoslavians etc.).
Russia ruled Ukraine until 1991. Eastern Ukraine is populated by mostly Russian speaking people (and that is where Ukraine’s industries are located, so if they declare session and rejoin Russia, Western Ukraine would be left as an agiculcutureal area...Ukraine is like the Midwest of the USA, it is the agricultural basin of Europe).
Regarding Crimea, Russia won it at war from the Ottoman Empire. The original people there are called Tartars; they are a Turkish people; that is, non-Europeans.
In 1856 Western Europe allied with Turkey and fought Russia trying to return Crimea back to Turkey. Russia won that war and retained Crimea. In the process Russia was broke and sold Alaska to the USA for only a few million dollars in 1867.
(Russians settled in Alaska in 1746...we still have Russian speaking villages all over Alaska...Alaskan cities like Kodiak, Sitka, Wrangle, Ketchikan, St Petersburg etc. still have strong Russian influence; Alaskan natives, especially the Aleuts and Yupik, speak Russian and go to Russian Orthodox Church.)
The population of Crimea today is 60% Russian, and about half a million are Tartars and some Muslims and Ukraine’s. Essentially Crimea is Russia.
In 1954 Nikita Krushov, who is from Ukraine, as the prime minister of the USSR gave Crimea to Ukraine, to his people!
Sebastopol on the black sea is Russia’s only year round sea port and from which it can reach the Middle East easily. The ports in the Baltic north are generally frozen during the six months of winter hence are useless to Russia.
Russia needs Crimea and its ports to station its Navy to be able to get to the Middle East and the Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy. Therefore, there is no way that Russia would let Ukraine have Crimea. That would amount to committing national suicide.
The point is that Russia owns Crimea and has taken it back; it is not going to go back to Ukraine. Eastern Ukraine is probably going to ask for referendum and vote to join Russia. That is what Putin wants to see happen and it is going to happen.
Obama is too naïve to even tie his shoes. In international politics he is lost and does not know diddlysquat and those advising him appear to be out to lunch, or zonked out on drugs or something.
Putin has made his move and the next thing you are going to hear is the United Nations calling for referendum in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea and, as noted, since the majority of the people there are Russians they would vote to separate from Ukraine and rejoin their fellow Russians.
What would be left of Ukraine may then join the European Union. Even then Russia would be at its borders breathing hard on it.
No one in central Europe can escape the bear’s weight. Russia got to be reckoned with. Russians are generally drunk for they are pessimistic about life but when you attack their mother land, they fight like devil possessed. Twenty-five million of them died to chase Adolf Hitler out of Russia during the Second World War. Millions of them died to chase Napoleon Bonaparte out of Russia.
Before that, they fought to chase the Mongols out (we call Russians Asians because even though they look white they have loads of Mongolian genes in them...the Mongols from Mongolia, near China ruled Russia from about 1100 AD to 1500 AD so that the average Russian has Chinese blood in him).
Anyway, Russians fight like the Chinese; you kill them and they keep coming at you until the last of them dies. General McArthur found that out when he attacked North Korea in 1950 and swarms of Chinese came at him and he killed loads of them and they kept coming at him. The man asked permission from President Truman to use nuclear weapons on the Chinese but was told not to do so, for Russia would not appreciate any one exploding nuclear weapons close to its borders.
Dying for their mother land is Russians idea of dying well. Therefore, America cannot fight Russia. Americans are too bourgeois, too interested in living and are afraid of dying that they cannot fight an all-out, total war with a people used to death and dying at massive scales.
Twenty five million Russians fought and died to get rid of Hitler. Wrap that number around your mind. That means all Igbos dying to save Igbo land. Can our folks do it? No, of course, for we are too interested in living at all costs?
Russians are nihilistic and pessimistic about life; they are almost always drunk on Vodka but pick a war with them and they come alive and come at you until they killed you.
So, my dear Doctor Gloria Johnson, Obama may be a fool, and he is a bloody fool, but he is not foolish enough to pick a fight with the Siberian bear called Putin, an ex-KGB colonel trained to die for his mother land.
Putin, a Russian nationalist, feels humiliated because the Russian empire was given up by the drunk, Boris Yeltsin in 1991; he is trying to reconstitute that empire.
Besides, Putin has enough paranoia in him to be a dangerous man. As a paranoid character, he is suspicious and does not trust anyone; he certainly does not trust Obama, or Cameron or Angela Merkel or Hollande.
As you probably know, paranoid personalities make the best warriors...both Hitler, Stalin and any war like general you can think of was delusional, that is, believed in his big ego self and saw his people as special and was willing to fight to uphold that delusion.
Obama is a narcissistic personality; he is getting his attention; he feels that the black world admires him; as long as he feels admired he is okay. He does not have the fire in his soul that the paranoid Putin has (Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany called Putin paranoid, Madelynn Albright, the former US secretary of State also called Putin a paranoid personality...I already knew that ...I still occasionally do papers for those who pay for my extraordinary insight into the human personality).
Please do not sweat small things; there aren’t going to be war with Russia; the West is posturing and blustering but will not go to war with Russia.
Western Europe gets about 40% of their oil from Russia and if that is disrupted their economies would go kaput.
Russian oligarchs pour billions of dollars into the US economy annually; if that dries up America’s anemic recovery from recession would end up in a depression.
Rich Russians literally have cornered the real estate market in London, Paris, Berlin, and Florida etc. Last year alone they poured $16 billion dollars into Britain and Britain spent only $4 billion dollars in buying Russian crude oil, having a net gain of $12 billion dollars.
If Russia stopped spending its moneys in Western Europe those economies would collapse. Therefore, the Europeans are not going to go to war with Russia.
So, sleep easy, my dear sister; there is not going to be war with Russia. Putin is going to get what he wants and that is all there is to the situation.
March 5, 2014