Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba currently lives in Medfield, Massachusetts.
I have been on Nigerian websites for a few days. In all these times, there seems to be a competition to identify what is wrong with the only country we have. The competition also calls for the identity of who is responsible: the tribe and the individual. One would think that as we evaluate the country, that the evaluators would say what is wrong and give a nod to what is right and ipso facto give a little complement to those who have made the right decisions.
The nod is completely absent and the round about complement to the tribe and individual comes grudgingly from those who are merely defending the blame placed on their tribe and their tribal chieftain. The few extremely small acknowledgments of the good in the country seem to come from a handful of people like Mr. Nwosu and Mr. Kassim and one or two others. Sometimes I wonder if these are real people for when they give the nod, strong tornadoes with winds gusting over 300 MPH is sent their way. They are called names and we are told of their sordid pasts and how they are prostituting themselves for some crumbs from the masters table.
They seem to survive for I still read them.
I believe that many things are wrong with Nigeria. I also believe that in order to solve a problem one must recognize its existence and its magnitude. But I also happen to believe that in other to affect the best solution one must also recognize that which is good. For then one would only remove what is bad while holding on to the good. To do other wise we may throw away the baby with the bath water.
The evidence of what is good can be seen by the fact that there is still one Nigeria since 1960. This one country has survived a civil way, many army led coups and, and many corrupt leadership. There must be something good that is holding us together. There is even more interaction between citizens. I went to visit my sister this past weekend and my sister was hosting a room mate of her days at ABU, a Nupe woman. She came from Nigeria. They graduated over two decades ago and have kept in touch through marriages and children. They know each other’s family very well.
I am God father to three Yoruba children and my family has Yoruba in laws. There are business partners of all possible combinations. They are living together in many cities and towns and villages. They are not held together by evil machinations but by love and good will. There must be some goodness in all of us.
There must be good in the system that makes such relationships work.
I will venture to hypothesize that what is wrong with Nigeria may be the educated elite among also. Those who hold some kind of PhD in some exotic field. These people have seen the world and liked the progress being made in their fields of specialization and bemoan the fact that Nigeria is not South Korea. They become jealous and antagonistic to the country that gave them birth. Both the jealous and the antagonistic outbursts are good if only they would channel them and communicate them in a friendly language. Their outbursts make many of us not to pay the attention they are seeking. Many of them sometimes see only goodness in their ethnic units and nothing but evil in the other ethnic groups. Many seek the salvation of “their people” and wish doom on all others. The Igbo have a prayer: “ugbogiri zoro m; zoro nwunye dim m”, a loose translation is May good harvests come to me and to my husband’s other wife.
We all know about “the other wife.” The reason for the payer for good harvest wish to the other wife (the enemy) is because if both have good harvest the ‘wife’ would enjoy her rich harvest in peace.
Nigerians could do well to learn this Igbo prayer and pray it so unceasingly.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
June 14, 2013
The existence of many small parties in Nigeria along with a mega party is one of the major reasons why democracy in the country is not thriving as it ought to. This condition does not allow for a level playing field. If the condition continues like this PDP will be in power for ever and Nigeria would continue its roller coaster rides.
Therefore the decision for the minority parties to join hands is a noble idea.
There are many advantages to be gained by forming a second mega party.
But APC faces tremendous hurdles if it will succeed. The hurdles need to be recognized before it can be tackled.
There are opportunities and challenges. It will be a shame if the challenges triumph over opportunities. Nigeria’s future will depend on the ability of the nation to develop another mega party. The initiators of this noble idea would succeed if they have the interest of the nation in mind.
They will fail if all they seek is an opportunity to further their ethnic, religious, or selfish political goals.
We shall see.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
February 16, 2013
We are now in the last days of 2012 US elections. I have predicted a landslide for Mr. Obama and everybody else has predicted a tight election with many predicting a slight edge for Mr. Romney. Words are no longer that important, or at least, not as important as body language. It is the body language that tells what a person actually believes and feels. Here are the body languages that tell me that the Republicans are feeling a lot of heath:
When you look at the candidates you will see noticeable difference in the bounce in their steps, in the smiles on their faces, in what their surrogates are saying. In fact one candidate barely has surrogates now. Where are the Republican surrogates? Duval Patrick, Clinton, Howard Dean etc are all over the place for Obama. Where is Boehner of the House? And the Senate Minority Leader?
Words are important but body language seems to contradict the words. We will know for sure in 6 days.
We are seeing Hail Mary passes everywhere. We are seeing desperate moves on one side and peace and quiet on the other side. Reality could be dawning on everybody.
Remember that this is October and in US elections one hears about “October Surprise.”
Could this be it?
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 31, 2012
I seize Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, NH, Arizona, for Obama and concede North Carolina and Indiana to Romney.
I am sticking to my 55/41 prediction on the popular vote for the following reasons:
Obama’s wins in large population states like California, NY, MA, Pennsylvania is such that it cannot be made up with wins in the small population states such as South Dakota and Wyoming.
Romney’s wins in the South such as N & S Carolina, Texas, etc would be considerably reduced by the large minority populations in those states where minorities make up as much as 20% of the state population.
Save this for Nov. 7/8, when the full results would be on display and compare. This is the only place where you will find Arizona in Obama column. We are talking about McCain and Barry Goldwater country.
My forecasts show a land slide in both the popular votes and in the Electoral College.
When this happens would you object to my being named to head a major polling outfit?
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 26, 2012
STATE Votes Obama Romney Total
Alabama 9 9 9
Alaska 3 3 3
Arizona 11 11 11
Arkansas 6 6 6
California 55 55 55
Colorado 9 9 9
Connecticut 7 7 7
Delaware 3 3 3
District of C 3 3 3
Florida 29 29 29
Georgia 16 16 16
Hawaii 4 4 4
Idaho 4 4 4
Illinois 20 20 20
Indiana 11 11 11
Iowa 6 6 6
Kansas 6 6 6
Kentucky 8 8 8
Louisiana 8 8 8
Maine 4 4 4
Maryland 10 10 10
Massachusetts 11 11 11
Michigan 16 16 16
Minnesota 10 10 10
Mississippi 6 6 6
Missouri 10 10 10
Montana 3 3 3
Nebraska 5 5 5
Nevada 6 6 6
New Hamp 4 4 4
New Jersey 14 14 14
New Mexico 5 5 5
New York 29 29 29
North Carolina 15 15 15
North Dakota 3 3 3
Ohio 18 18 18
Oklahoma 7 7 7
Oregon 7 7 7
Pennsylvania 20 20 20
Rhode Island 4 4 4
South Carolina 9 9 9
South Dakota 3 3 3
Tennessee 11 11 11
Texas 38 38 38
Utah 6 6 6
Vermont 3 3 3
Virginia 13 13 13
Washington 12 12 12
West Virginia 5 5 5
Wisconsin 10 10 10
Wyoming 3 3 3
TOTAL 538 343 195 538
Aduba’s final election results prediction of the popular vote. I will publish the electoral vote prediction a few days before November 6. I call out Mr. Seyi Awofeso in particular to post this at a visible place in his office. We shall have a discussion on November 8.
Population %Obama %Romney Obama Romney Obama Tot Romney Tot
Male (.25) .4 .6 0.1 0.15
Female (.25) .53 .47 0.1325 0.1175
Total White 0.2325 0.2675 (0.5)
Non White (0.5)
Hispanic (0.17) .65 .35 0.1105 0.0595 (0.17)
Black (0.15) 0.90 0.10 0.135 0.015 (0.15)
Jews (0.04) 0.55 0.45 0.022 0.018 (0.04)
Others (0.14) 0.6 0.4 0.084 0.056 (0.14)
Total non white (0.5) 0.3515 0.1485 (0.5)
TOTAL POPULATION 0.584 0.416 (1)
(1) White vote for Romney should be reduced by 0.001 due to gays who would not vote for him but added to Obama
(2) Obama’s total vote would be reduced by 0.05 for those who would not vote.
The final numbers after adjustments would be as follows
Mr. Seyi Awofeso has a long history of being wrong about Mr. Obama and his current call of Tuesday’s debate between Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney in favor of Mr. Romney will prove as misguided as his former position that Mr. Obama was not qualified to be president because he did not meet the “US born” requirement for the office of the United States President. Except for a few people in the fringe this his position is not mentioned anymore. No US attorney, not a politician and no political analyst holds this view and no one has tried to prove it in any court, both of law and of public opinion. It has not been an issue of importance to anybody in this election cycle.
Mr. Awofeso’s current position on Obama would also in time die a natural death as his “birther” position. He currently writes as follows:
“…i stated that his (Obama’s) tax and spend plan in a recession was not held together by any reed of economic logic and i then stated that Barack Obama’s tenure as President, if he won, would surely worsen and complicate America’s business and commerce, since he understands neither…
Today i’m proved absolutely right…”
This was what he predicted in 2008 piece and he has recalled it and is now asserting that he has been proved absolutely right. Let us look at what he predicted and see if there is a scintilla of evidence to assert that he is “absolutely right.”
his tax and spend plan in a recession…would surely worsen and complicate America’s business and commerce,…
Now let us fact check this statement:
I will stop here and would like for Mr. Awofeso to point out even one example where things were worse than in 2008. If he does not, then, his position has been proven wrong. It did not worsen but improved when compared to where things were in 2008 when he made his prediction.
The next comparison would be could things have been different if an alternative path had been taken? This is Mitt Romney’s argument which is slightly different from Mr. Awofeso’s who asserts that things are worse. It is impossible to prove that things would have been better if a particular route had been followed. It is difficult to say what would have happened on the road not traveled. So there is no absolute proof as claimed.
Since Mr. Awofeso brought Keynesian theory into this debate let us look at it. In time of economic downturn demand is scarce and therefore supply is very low and economic activity is slow (unemployment is high; borrowing, savings, and investments are low).
Supply is non existent without demand. So the appropriate action is to stimulate demand. You do this by getting money into the hands of people who would go out and spend it. A government must do this either by borrowing it, or by printing money (yes, crank the money machine). With this money people would demand food, housing, and many other services. This would kick start supply and job creation and eventually the economy would roar. When this happens inflation would be a concern. But that, we should leave for another day.
Which part of this economic scenario does Mr. Awofeso not understand when he says that Mr. Obama misread Keynesian theory?
In exactly three weeks from today we will be celebrating Mr. Obama’s re-election. A year from today the US economy will be roaring thanks to Obama’s foresight.
And both Mr. Romney and Mr. Awofeso would be proved absolutely wrong.
Then like the earlier “birther theory” every thing would be quiet in the Western Front.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 17, 2012
Some of us have been involved in the American politics for sometime now. Those of us who have pitched our tents with Obama For America (OFA) since 2008 are now on a high alert as there are merely four weeks to November 6, 2012 when the next president of America, and by implication, the leader of the world would be elected. It is a great opportunity for Nigerians living and working in USA to get some real education on American politics. I am not here to promote Obama even though I support him and now practically work 24/7 for his reelection.
I am here to urge my fellow Nigerians to get educated.
Here are a few things we should be doing now, no matter if we are die hard republicans or democrats (in the off year elections, I am an independent; MA allows that) but in this election cycle I am a died in the wool democrat):
You do not become a Christian until you are baptized. We all need this baptism of fire.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 7, 2012
In a news article reported by Saturday Tribune of October 6, 2012 writers, Kunle Oderemi, Dapo Falade, and Wale Ajayi reported that major stake holders in the South West expressed outrage over the appointments of service chiefs made by President Goodluck Jonathan on Thursday. The report went on to say:
According to them, for the first time since independence, the South-West Yoruba have been left without a post in the top hierarchy of the nation’s armed and security forces.
If the statement is correct, that would be a necessary and sufficient condition for not appointing a SW Yoruba person as a service chief. If in the 52 years of Nigerian independence a “SW Yoruba” has been appointed a service chief, would it not be time for an Itsekiri person to serve? Or for Igalla person to serve? Is this not the “born to rule mentality in action?
I have written often on the demerits of the concept of National character in every appointment in Nigeria. Political positions at top levels should take the idea into consideration at macro level but no more. It will be wrong for every level of government to have equal representation at every level. It is the reason why we have over 40 ministries and ministers more than any other country in the world.
What the SW leaders should be looking into is the qualifications of the appointed officers. If any one is unqualified, it should be pointed out. And one of the reasons ought not be because he is not Yoruba.
If I were the president and there are two equally qualified candidates one an Idoma and the other Yoruba and I know that the Yoruba have been running the show since independence I would be inclined to use that as a tie breaker and award the command to the Idoma.
There are 300 ethnic groups in Nigeria and no one group should be in charge all the time UNLESS the group has been able to provide the most qualified candidate. And even in this regard remedial steps should be taken bring the backward groups up to speed affirmatively
By pursuing these appointments from the perspective quoted above SW leaders have lost their case. If they were to find a more qualified Yoruba and present him for appointment, such a candidate would not have credibility any more. Good leaders ought to use their words carefully.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
October 9, 2012